| As the most populous country in the world, China’s population issue has consistently been the focus indispensible to macro examination and the enactment of carious policies. It is also one of the important factors influencing domestic economic development. Nonetheless, China is entering a critical phase when demographic dividend is disappearing and the aging of population is accelerating, which will undoubtedly exert certain impact on future economy of China. Therefore, it is of great necessity to study the relationship between demographic dividend, the aging of population and economic growth.Taking spatial correlation into consideration, factors as information flow, technology spillover and integration of regional cooperation are likely to promote interaction of economic development in different regions, especially neighboring ones, given the facts that demographic dividend impacts economic development in the surrounding area through trans-regional flow of labor force, trade of commodity and capital flow. Based on cobb douglas production function equation concerning introduction of human resources and labor burden, a spatial econometric panel model was constructed utilizing Chinese provincial panel data; and empirical analysis was conducted through SAR panel, SEM and SDM model respectively. The results are as follows:1) demographic dividend and the aging of population will promote economic development; 2) strong spatial correlation exists in demographic dividend and the aging of population, and it demonstrates a spatial "convergence" effect to a certain extent; 3)strong spatial spillover exists between provincial economic growth, that is the economic growth will be affected by its neighbors.4) regional economic development will be influenced not only by its own demographic dividend and aggravating population aging, but also by the variation of the two factors in neighboring regions. This thesis researched the above-mentioned issues and put forward targeted proposals. |
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