Study On The Dynamic Statistical Model Of Beijing Population Environment

In the final analysis,the population environment issue is a question of sustainable development.It includes population issues,environmental issues,resource issues,and social issues.The development of human society has brought about a tremendous threat to the survival of us and our children and grandchildren.Today,a series of global problems such as a sharp increase in population,a deteriorating environment and a shortage of resources have brought enormous threats to our survival.How to properly handle the relations among population,environment,resources and society so as to make it coordinated and sustainable development is the most important issue in the development of human society.This paper takes Beijing as an example to study the population environment problem.According to the current population situation in Beijing,the population development process in Beijing is combined with the natural environment,resource allocation and social environment to form the theoretical framework of the population environment in Beijing.More conducive to controlling the excessive growth of population,to achieve a "resource-saving and environment-friendly" living environment and promote the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development.Based on functional data analysis as the main research method,on the basis of the administrative division of Beijing,further study of the present situation of population in Beijing and the change trend,Beijing's air pollution,water resource utilization and allocation model of Beijing,and Beijing the lowest life to ensure,the representative and environment related to population issues,environmental issues,resource allocation,and social problems.First,using the method of functional data analysis to establish a functional demographic model to fit the population data of nearly 10 years in various administrative districts of Beijing,the idea is to proceed with the internal structure of the data.Firstly,population data of each functional area are processed The function is fitted and smoothed,then the first and second order derivatives of the function are obtained,and the change of resident population in all administrative regions of Beijing is studied from the aspects of population proportion,population density,growth rate and acceleration,Quantify the population distribution structure of each functional area and analyze the internal characteristics of the data from a functional perspective.Second,a function variance test(ANOVA)model was constructed based on the characteristics of air quality data,which was used to test the mean of independent samples of random curves.The averaged approximate mean function of each set of estimated curves was obtained by nonparametric function smoothing method.These approximations are used to construct the test statistic to test the differences between the curves in each group.The method of functional variance test was applied to the air pollution data of 35 monitoring stations in several administrative regions collected in Beijing from 190 August to September 2014 for a total of 190 days,and the case of respirable particulate matter Test for differences in mean levels.This paper analyzes the different air quality levels of various administrative regions in Beijing from different angles and provides a theoretical model for further understanding of the formation of air pollution and identification of the most polluted areas in Beijing.Thirdly,based on the overall analysis of the current situation of water resources in Beijing and the functional data analysis of the distribution and use of water resources in different regions and sub-sectors,a model of total water resources allocation in Beijing is established from the perspective of the Beijing municipal government.They are three models of linear rewards and punishments,namely water conservation,excess water consumption and false reporting respectively.By setting rewards and punishment factors,we must not only save water,but also take into account the overall economic development and rational adjustment of industrial structure,giving a fair and reasonable allocation Program.Then,based on the limited water resources in Beijing,a model of water resources allocation and selection of water consumption is established,and a reward and punishment mechanism is established.Through the game between Beijing municipal government and each district government,the limited water resources can be rationally allocated and utilized,But also to meet the needs of water resources in all administrative regions,so as to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources as much as possible,reduce the waste of water resources,reduce water pollution and improve the rational distribution and utilization of water resources.Fourthly,combining the analysis method of functional data with constraints with the B-spline curve fitting method,a dynamic model with good fitting properties is established to construct a model which not only conforms to the nature of the distribution function,but also meets well The fitting curve of goodness and smoothness of fitting is applied to the calculation of minimum living allowance for urban residents in Beijing.In order to effectively carry out the minimum standards of urban residents' protection and alleviate poverty,improve the living standard of poor residents,narrowing the polarization and giving play to the government's ability to regulate the secondary distribution.It also provides an effective theoretical model for the formulation and revision of the minimum security policy.