The Impact Of Population Development On Resources Consumption And Environment Pollution

Since 1950 s, the word economy has developed rapidly, however, the rapid economy development leaded to a series of global issues, such as too fast population growth, shortage of resources, environmental degradation and so on. The relationship among population development, resources and environment is not harmonious. As a big economy, China is also facing such a problem. After 2002, China's overall economy has entered in the stage of heavy industrialization, and the resources are facing greater pressure to consume, and the environment pollution is increasing. In order to solve these problems, some scholars have put forward the research on the relationship between population and resources and environment in the framework of population equilibrium. The academic community believes that population development refers to the population quantity, population quality, population structure and population distribution, as well as the changes in their relationship. Therefore, according to the research of the participating subjects, this paper names population quantity and population quality as population moderation, then uses the natural growth rate of population, the per capita education period to reflect population moderation, uses the child-age dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio to reflect the population structure, uses the population net migration rate to reflect the population distribution, then analyses how population development will have an impact on resource consumption and environmental pollution from three dimensions such as population moderation, population structure, population distribution.In consideration of population can impact resources and environment via economic process, so this paper makes a summary of the impact of population development on economic growth and the impact of population development on resources and environment. After summing up, this paper finds the existing literature just only analyses the relationship among population development, resources and environment just from a certain aspect of population development, there are not comprehensive analysis, and the existing literature is lack of theoretical research.The theoretical part of this paper modified and extends Romer's endogenous economic model, takes resource consumption and environmental pollution and each index which reflect population development into endogenous economic growth model. Then establish a equation between the extended endogenous economic model and the national income decision model, and then combined with generation overlapping model, life cycle theory, enterprise decision model for savings rate, to derive the population development of resource consumption and environmental pollution influence mechanism. Theoretical study found: the average education attainment, the old-age dependency ratio, child-age raising ratio have negative effect on resource consumption and environmental pollution, and the natural population growth rate and population net immigration rate have positive effect on resource consumption and environmental pollution.The empirical part of this paper establishes dynamic panel model and uses China's data of 29 provinces from 1993 to 2013(Tibet and Chongqing because of incomplete data were excluded) to estimate the effect of population development on resource consumption and environmental pollution from three dimensions such as population moderation, population structure, population distribution by SYS_GMM. And then tests the intermediary function of rate of saving. And this paper uses threshold test and piecewise regression to ensure the test results to be robust. The results shows that the average education attainment has a threshold value, the education level need to accumulate to play the roles of energy saving and emission reduction, relatively higher education has bigger effect on energy-saving and emission reduction than low education; natural population growth rate has a negative effect on energy consumption and industrial waste gas emission; child-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on energy consumption and industrial waste gas emission; with the improvement of per capita income level, the old-age dependency ratio will affect energy consumption and industrial waste gas emission from negatively to positively. The net migration rate of population has positive effect on energy consumption and industrial waste gas emission. Loose birth control policy can save energy and reduce industrial waste gas emission by increasing natural population growth rate, raising child-age dependency ratio and reducing the old-age dependency ratio, and then explains the differences between theoretical conclusion and empirical conclusion combine with research literature and specific national conditions of China.Finally, according to the results, this paper puts forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, namely, to strengthen investment in education, to enhance the level of human capital, to improve the quality of the population; adjust birth policy, promote the optimization of population structure, maintaining moderate population quantity; promote the integration of urban and rural development, to solve of the inter regional income disparities, avoid unreasonable population migration; optimize the industrial structure, upgrade the industrial structure; refuse the rough development model, to establish sustainable development model of population and economy, resources and environment.