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Research On The Impact Of Changes In Demographic Dividend On China's Economic Growth

Posted on:2019-03-07Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:F Y ZhuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2347330542998988Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Demographic change has been a topic of discussion among scholars.Since the miracle of growth in East Asia in 1965,scholars have begun to pay attention to the demographic dividend brought about by population growth.The demographic dividend means that the growth of the population has brought about a promoting effect on economic development.Population growth has brought sufficient labor supply to delay the declining of capital rewards,while the reduction of the population dependency ratio has effectively increased the savings rate.Some studies have indicated that the demographic dividend has played a key role in China's rapid growth over the past 30 years.At this time,China's demographic dividend is gradually weakening.The previous growth model is facing an inevitable bottleneck.The purpose of this paper is to study how the dynamic changes in demographic dividends have affected economic growth,and empirically validated the panel data of 31 provinces and cities.Firstly,based on the existing literature,this paper summarizes the related theories of the relationship between demographic transition and economic development in previous studies.At the same time,starting from the previous empirical research,we consider the method of panel clustering to divide regions in 31 provinces.The modeling and analysis of panel data in each region further validated the demographic dividend's role in promoting economic growth.The argument is mainly divided into four levels:(1)Statistical analysis of the changes in the age structure of China's population and changes in China's demographic dividend over the past 15 years,and adopting measures of dependency ratios and growth rate decomposition to evaluate China's demographic dividend economy,and conclude that China has been in the 1980 s.In the middle period,it began to enter the demographic dividend period,and continued to expand in the later period,but the degree of demographic dividend effect varies among provinces and regions;(2)Taking the Solow-Swan production model with human capital as the research framework,analyzing the impact of changes in demographic dividend on production factors,production techniques,and labor efficiency from a dynamic perspective,and providing labor supply,capital formation,and labor force allocation efficiency.And the accumulation of human capital as the main influence mechanism of changes in demographic dividends on economic development;(3)Due to different levels of demographic dividends in different provinces and regions,different trends,and different differences,clustering methods are used to classify regions with similar demographic dividend effects into one category,and empirically analyze different categories;(4)Establishing an econometric model again based on the adjusted Solow-Swan model and empirically testing the impact of demographic dividend on China's economic growth.Comprehensive empirical analysis of various regions shows that the demographic dividend has a significant role in promoting economic growth.Finally,based on the conclusions of the full text,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as the transformation of China's economic growth model in the postbenefit era,the improvement of the labor force quality,the development of the elderly economy,and the improvement of the pension security system.
Keywords/Search Tags:Demographic dividend, Demographic dependency ratio, Panel data clustering, Panel model
PDF Full Text Request
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