Research On The Impact Of Childbirth Policy On Consumption Of Urban Residents

Since the 1950s,China's population development has gone through nearly 70 years,accompanied by the changes in family planning policies.The family planning policies have been constantly adjusted and improved in practice and remarkable achievements have been made with the demographic transition and the rapid social and economic development.For example,the type of population reproduction has changed smoothly,the quality of population has been improved,the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated,the "demographic dividend" has been released,the status of women has been significantly improved;Nevertheless,it has also generated new problems and unfavorable impact upon other sectors of the e conomy and the society.Including:the continuing low fertility level,unbalanced population structure,the declining and aging population of working population,the one-child family becoming a risky family,the squeezing of male marriage.Based on the current severe population situation,the state adjusted the family planning policies in 2013 and 2015.Since 2016,the "two-child" policy has been universally implemented,ending the "one-child" policy for more than 30 years.It makes the population increase obviously and the fertility level rise in the short term,which indicates that many families may have a new child.As an important part of the family consumption of urban residents,the "two-child" policy will inevitably have a certain impact on the consumption of urban residents.Most people are both producers and consumers,they play different roles in economic and social activities at different stages.Children are consumers and potential producers,the working population is both producers and consumers,while the old is called pure consumers.Only the working population provides support for their own consumption by producing wealth,They provide consumption support for the children and the elderly through family transfer payment and social transfer payment.The dissertation combs the developing process of the fertility policy and the changes of urban residents' consumption.Guided by the theories of population economics,new family economics,life cycle theory and so on.Firstly,it analyses the mechanism of fertility policy affecting urban residents' consumption.The main ways of fertility policy affecting consumption are number of family children,population age structure and gender structure;Secondly,the economic significance of fertility policy adjustment is analyzed by using macroeconomic models such as Solow model and endogenous economic growth model.The conclusion is drawn that the relaxation of fertility policy improves the consumption rate of residents by constructing the three-stage Diamond generation overlapping model and the theory of "learning by doing".Thirdly,the birth rate,child dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio and sex ratio are selected as the core variables of the fertility policy system.The dissertation examines the impact of core variables on the consumption rate of urban residents by Using macro-level cross-sectional data,and conducts a robustness test.Fourthly,it calculates the coupling degree between the fertility policy system,the population age structure and the consumption structure of urban residents by using the Grey Relativity Analysis.The results show that there are strong correlations between the fertility policy system,population age structure and consumption structure.This result indicates further that the consumption of education,culture and entertainment have the highest correlation with the fertility policy system,and the correlation coefficient is 0.7911 between 0-4 year-old population and consumption structure of urban residents.Fifthly,based on the extended AIDS model,we study the influence of the fertility policy on the consumption structure of urban residents.Birth rate,sex ratio,child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio were included,and other control factors were taken into account too.The method of SUR was used to estimate the equation to examine the impact of each variable on eight categories of urban residents' consumption.Lastly,Based on the extended three-stage Diamond generation overlapping model,we use the data of CFPS in 2016 to evaluate the impact of the "two-child" policy on household consumption rate and consumption structure of urban residents.The factor of income is taken into account too.The influence of different income groups is further investigated.With the above analysis,the following conclusions are drawn;Fertility policy is an important factor affecting the consumption of urban residents;Child dependency ratio is the main way of affecting the consumption of urban residents;The"two-child"policy has a significant impact on the consumption expenditure of cultural,educational,entertainment and housing,and there are obvious differences between different income classes;The adjustment of family planning policy helps to improve the consumption rate of residents,thereby promoting economic growth;Based on the above analysis and conclusions,we put forward four suggestions:Take the government as the leader and continuously improve the population policy to increase the female fertility rate;Strengthen investment in kindergarten education,gradually incorporate preschool education into compulsory education;Constantly improve consumer market to release residents' consumption potential and promote consumption structure upgrading;deepen supply-side structural reform,effectively release the demand for improved housing.