Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth From The Perspective Of Innovation-driven

With the deepening of population aging,China has begun to face a series of problems brought about by population aging,which involve all aspects of the economy.At the same time,the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that “scientific and technological innovation is the strategic support for improving social productivity and comprehensive national strength,and must be placed at the core of the overall national development.”It emphasizes that we should adhere to the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics and implements the strategy of innovation-driven development.This paper is precisely based on this background to study the impact of population aging on economic growth,which has a positive significance for the current study of China’s economy and population aging.Firstly,based on population transformation theory,economic growth theory and innovation theory,this paper theoretically explores the mechanism of population aging affecting economic growth from the perspective of production,aggregate demand and innovation-driven,and puts forward the conceptual model and research model of this study,and integrates all perspectives to construct a theoretical comprehensive analysis framework.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,two empirical methods,panel smoothing transfer regression model and structural equation model,are used for empirical analysis.The panel smooth transfer regression model was used to analyze the impact of population aging on household consumption,investment,government expenditure and net exports.Structural equation model was used to analyze the moderating effect of innovation-driven moderator variables on the degree of population ageing and household consumption,investment,government expenditure and net exports.Thirdly,on the basis of the previous analysis,the intermediary variables of resident consumption,investment,government expenditure and net export are integrated into the structural equation model of statistical analysis,and the comprehensive effects of population aging on economic growth through intermediary variables are analyzed.By introducing the adjustment variable of innovation drive,we construct a mediated adjustment model and analyze the comprehensive adjustment effect of innovation drive between the degree of population aging and economic growth.Finally,on the basis of the previous studies,we conclude that the population aging will have a negative impact on economic growth to some extent,but the impact is different among the intermediaries of household consumption,investment,government expenditure and net export.Innovation-driven adjustment variables are introduced to show a positive regulatory effect.On the basis of relevant conclusions,this paper further combines population aging and innovation-driven strategy,and puts forward relevant suggestions.