Research On The Impact Of China’s Population Aging On Economic Growth

In recent years,China’s economic growth has slowed down and entered a new normal of economy.One of the reasons for China’s economic slowdown is the aging population and the disappearance of the demographic dividend.As China’s economy and society continue to develop,the problem of population aging becomes increasingly prominent,and the disappearance of the demographic dividend also leads to rising labor costs,which poses challenges to China’s economic development.In 2022,the national population decreased by 850,000 for the whole year,and negative population growth appeared for the first time.The problem of population aging is further highlighted.In this context,studying the impact of population aging on economic growth has important significance for China’s future economic development.Through the study of existing literature,it is found that there are inconsistencies in the conclusions on the impact of aging on economic growth.In addition,due to the large differences among provinces in China in terms of economic development,geographical location,and resource endowment,this paper focuses on the following three aspects in combination with China’s actual situation:(1)Analyze the causes and current situation of China’s population aging.(2)Study whether the impact direction of population aging on economic growth at the national level is positive or negative,and whether there is a threshold effect.(3)The spatial spillover effect of population aging on economic growth in China.In this paper,based on the above issues,the following three aspects of research are targeted.First,combing through China’s population fertility policy evolution to analyze the causes of aging,through the analysis of national aging data from 2002 to 2022,expounding China’s current overall aging status characteristics,analyzing regional differences in China,and through comparison with Japan’s different development stages The characteristics of aging analysis show that China’s population aging has different characteristics from Japan’s aging.Secondly,using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2021 in China,through a threshold regression model to study the impact direction of population aging on China’s economic growth at this stage,examine the impact direction of population aging on economic growth and whether there is a threshold effect.Finally,based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2021 in China,using the spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial spillover effect of aging on economic growth.The research results show that:(1)The aging speed is fast,the base is large,and it is old before getting rich.From the characteristics of China’s aging status quo,China currently has a high level of aging overall status quo characteristics,a fast aging speed,and a large elderly population base characteristics,while regional differences in aging are large,China’s aging also has “old before getting rich”characteristics,compared with developed countries.(2)There are differences in the impact of aging at different levels of development.Aging has a negative impact on economic growth when GDP per capita is low;At higher GDP per capita,the effect of aging on economic growth no longer shows a negative.(3)Population aging has a significant negative spatial spillover effect.Aging will reduce the potential for economic growth and will be transmitted to other regions through spatial links,affecting economic growth in other regions.Finally,according to the conclusion put forward countermeasures and suggestions for dealing with the impact of deepening aging on economic growth.