The Three Margins And Trade Effect Of Free Trade Area Of China's Agricultural Products Import

FTA is the main driving force to drive economic integration,and it is an important means for many countries to carry out strategic cooperation and participate in international competition.17th CPC National Congress has raised the construction of the free trade area to the national strategic level,19th CPC National Congress requests for further promoting the construction of free trade area,and promoting the construction of the open world economy.The construction of China's free trade area has entered a rapid development stage from the exploratory stage.Since the 2002 start of the FTA negotiations,as of January 2018,China has signed 16 FTA,and has involved 24 countries and regions.In 2004,Early Harvest Program of CAFTA of China's first free trade area began to be implemented,the annual average growth rate of agricultural products in China reached 12.2%in the past 2004-2015 years,which was obviously greater than the growth rate of 1995-2003 years(5.7%),but also showed obvious structural imbalance,explore trade effect and path of china's FTA on the import of China's agricultural products,which has important reference significance for the next agricultural negotiation,the adjustment of the strategy of the free trade area and the optimization of the import structure.The concrete research content mainly includes the following 5 parts:(1)based on the classical theory of Customs Union,FTA theory,heterogeneous enterprise trade theory,this paper theoretical analyzes the trade creation and transfer effect of FTA,two margins of import growth and the economic effect of product diversity,which lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent empirical research;(2)analysis the present situation of the implementation of china's FTA and the characteristics of the growth of the import of agricultural products in China;(3)China's agricultural import growth was decomposed into extensive margin,price margin and quantity margin using the three margins method,and the growth mode of China's agricultural import was analyzed from the total and bilateral perspectives.(4)Based on import demand regression model,the SYS-GMM and counterfactual method were adopted to measure trade creation(TC)and trade diversion(TD)effects of multiple FTA on China's agricultural imports.;(5)Based on the three margins framework of trade growth,explore the impact of the free trade area on the three margins of china's agricultural products import,three margin's contribution rate and the main factor of FTA was analyzedThe main research conclusions show that:(1)The import growth of china's agricultural products presents the centralization of products and sources;(2)China's agricultural imports growth relies on the expansion of the number of existing agricultural products,imported products gradually increased but the effect is limited;(3)China's FTA does not have the trade diversion effect,but only CAFTA,China-New Zealand FTA,Chinese-Peru FTA has the trade creation effect,and CAFTA has the largest effect and lasts longer;(4)The impact of china's FTA on three margins of China's agricultural import growth is different,but quantity margin is the main mode of trade effect of China's FTA;(5)CAFTA is relatively deepened,and the variety of products contributes the most to its trade effect..This article combines the theory of FTA with the three margins of trade growth,and it's a new attempt to systematically study the trade effect and structure of China's FTA.Analysis on FTA trade effect from the perspective of trade flows,promote FTA trade effect empirical level is consistent with theory;analyzes the trade effect of multiple FTA of china on the import of agricultural products,avoids the spillover effects of other FTA in the study of individual free trade zones,and Counterfactual estimates improve the accuracy of trade creation and transfer effects;analyzes the structure of trade effect of multiple china's FTA based on three margins of trade growth,and decomposition based on structural analysis of multiple trade effects in China,by using elastic value,the contribution rate of three margins is calculated,and the accuracy of the trade effect mode of FTA is improved.