Research On Soybean Price Fluctuation And Risk Early Warning In China

Soybean industry is one of basic industries in China.Soybean price is taken as basic price,and the change in soybean price will lead to change in price level of the whole society so that it is related to agricultural development and economic stability in China.Therefore,though the prediction and warning research of China ’s soybean price,this paper can resolve the problems related to china’s soybean market and provide a reference for the prediction and warnirng research of prices of other farm produces.On the basis of the full analysis of research status at home and abroad and the establishment of the price system of China ’s soybean and the supply and demand of China’s soybean market,this paper primarily studies the motivation of price volatility of China’s soybean and the prediction and early warning problems of China’s soybean price.Firstly,this paper studies main influencing factors of China’s soybean price,and these factors include macro-environment,supply factors and demand factors of price volatility of China’s soybean(see Chapter 3).Secondly,according to the problem of failing to grasp China ’s soybean price,this paper primarily studies the prediction of China ’s soybean price based on grey prediction method(see Chapter 4).Then,according to the risk problem of China’s soybean price,this paper primarily studies the problem of early warning method of China’s soybean price based on decision tree method.At last,according to the problem exposed in the study process of soybean industry,this paper proposes the policy goal and suggestions of regulation of price volatility of China’s soybean,which lay a theoretical basic and model support for seeping up the industrialization development of soybean market and perfecting price warning mechanism of China’s soybean market.Concrete contents are as follows:(1)This paper studies the influencing factors of China’s soybean price.These factors mainly include macro-environment(inflation rate,price index of residents food,exchange rate,interest rate,fixed assets expenditure in rural and agricultural expenditure from national finance),supply factors(material and service cost,labor cost,land cost,soybean yield,sowing area of soybean,America’s soybean price and import of soybean)and demand factors(total population,per capita annual net income in rural,per capita disposable income of urban residents’ family,corn price,peanut price and rapeseed price),this paper studies the change of 19 factors above from 1990 to 2011,and makes qualitative analysis of the effect of China ’s soybean price.(2)This paper studies the relationships between 19 factors and China’s soybean price.This paper uses nonlinear fitting method to fit the relationships between various factors and China ’s soybean price,though two angle(with and without fluctuation expression)to analysis it,and uses the indexes(root mean square error,goodness of fit and square root of error etc.)to make quality inspection for fitting results.One factor selected from every one of the three aspects(macro-environment,supply factors and demand factors)is used for describing the relationships.(3)This paper establishes relationships between soybean price in China and 19 factors including macro-economy,supply factors and demand factors by principle component analysis.Firstly,this paper standardize the collection of data.Secondly,highly correlated indicators are extracted.Then,two components are extracted.Lastly,this paper establishes relationships between soybean price and various factors and test its rationality.(4)Based on comparison among time series analysis,grey prediction method and data mining technology,and according to data of soybean price from 1990 to 2014,this paper resolves the prediction problem of soybean price in China by grey prediction method and predict soybean price in 2015 is 228.51 yuan/50 kg.(5)In view of China’s soybean market in nearly eighteen years,this paper establishes warning indicator system.Indicators mainly includes extent of import reliance,China ’s soybean yield,import of China’s soybe’an,export of china’s soybean,price ratio of America and China’s soybean,agricultural infrastructure spending,America’s soybean yield and sowing area of China ’s soybean etc..Then,this paper extract several rule sets from various early warning indexes influencing warning situation’s indexes by using decision tree method and establishes early warning system of import dependence ratio of China’s soybean.The results show that import dependence ratio of China’s soybean has been in serious warning state from 2002 to now.According to the problem exposed in the study process of soybean industry,this paper proposes the policy goal and suggestions of regulation of price volatility of China ’s soybean,which lay a theoretical basic and model support for seeping up the industrialization development of soybean market and perfecting price warning mechanism of China ’s soybean market.