Research On Evolution Mechanism Of Potato Planting Spatial Pattern In China

As the world's fourth-largest food crop,potato shows high capacity in drought-tolerant,cold-resistant,and barren-resistant.It is characterized with multiple industrial chains,multiple product forms,and multiple price types.In 2015,the potato staple grain strategy directly positioned the potato industry at the level of national food security.Since the the planting area of potato expands rapidly in some areas,the price fluctuation of potato is large,the periodic change of market is obvious,the difficulty of seasonal hoarding and selling appears frequently.In some areas,the cost-driven development mode,which is mainly based on labor and energy consumption,leads to the deterioration of water-soil environment.Since potatos are considered as vegetables in China,this leads to the disconnection between supply and demand in the processing with the highest added value of the industry,and this greatly weakens the function of poverty reduction and alleviation.Problems,such as poor quality,low yield,fuzzy classification and lack of seed potato,seriously restrict the spread of potato planting technology and reduce the rate of technical transformation.Based on the analysis of the status of potato industry,this paper analyzes the spatial evolution characteristics of potato planting in China at provincial and county scales,analyzes the spatial dynamics and endogenous mechanisms of potato planting in China,and simulates the spatial distribution of Chinese potatoes planting based on ecological suitability under different scenarios.Based on comprehensive analysis of the result,we puts forward the optimal plan of Chinese potato planting path.The main progress and conclusions are as follows:1.The comprehensive comparative advantage model and spatial analysis method were used to reveal the comparative advantages of potato planting regions in China and the evolution characteristics of planting spatial patterns at provincial and county scales.The results show that comprehensive comparative advantage of the northwest,southwest,and central eastern regions has an overall upward trend,while that of northeast,north China and central regions has a downward trend.The gravity center of Chinese potato plating changes along the track of “southwest-northeast-southwest” with the charicteristics of enhancement at different stage and the move “from north to south,from east to west”.Since 2000,the gravity center has moved 505.07 kilometers towards southwest and it has changed from Changzhi in Shanxi province to Dazhou in Sichuan province.The spatial pattern of Chinese potato planting has experienced three stages at county level: moving towards southwest(1983-1994),moving towards northeast(1994-2001)and moving towards southwest(2001-2013).2.The spatial pattern of Chinese potato planting is analyzed in terms of climate change,technological progress,comparative returns,and policy support,using the method of principal component regression analysis.Central double cropping cultivated area and northwestern single cropping cultivated area have a relatively large natural comparative advantage.The impact factors of precipitation in the growing season,sunshine duration in the growing season,and average air temperature in the growing season score 0.38,0.38,and 0.37,respectively.Southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area has an obvious comparative advantage of benefit.The impact factors of alternative crop price,total cost per mu and net profit per mu score 0.23,0.22 and 0.17.The advantages of planting technology in northwestern single cropping cultivated area and southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area are significantly.However,the influence of planting technology on the spatial pattern is not obvious.According to the above-mentioned results,dynamic mechanism of spatial pattern evolution in the Chinese potato planting is analyzed based on the completely uncontrollable elements,fully controllable elements and partially controllable elements.3.The main influencing factors of the potato planting intention are analyzed using conditional value evaluation method and multiple linear regression model,combined with the survey data from 1208 farmers.The factors that positively influence the willingness of potato planting are education level> potato selling price> subsidy income per mu> actual planting area.The factors that negatively influence the willingness of potato planting are seed cost per acre> rent-reduced of self-owned land per acre > turnover per acre> pesticide cost per acre> mechanical cost per acre> information sources > alternative crop market information> potato planting area> annual potato feed usage.Based on the hypothesis that individual decision affects the group decision and furthermore changes the reginal spatial pattern,the evolution mechanism of China's potato planting spatial pattern is proposed from the perspective of farmers' willingness.4.Based on the perspective of ecological suitability,the distribution of spatial pattern in Chinese potato planting at different scenarios are simulated using the global agriculture ecological regionalization model,multi-source data fusion model and auto-regressive moving average model.The results showed that in the recent(2011-2040)period,the total annual demand of Chinese potatoes in the main grain scenario,continuing scenarios,and extreme scenarios was 103.8266 million tons,97.838 million tons and 109.3599 million tons,respectively.In the medium and long term(2041-2070),the total annual demand of Chinese potatoes is 11.489993 million tons,12.59781 million tons and 14.81354 million tons,respectively.In the main grain scenario,the priorities for the layout of ecologically suitable areas for potato planting in China are as follows: Sanjiang Plain in the Songnen Plains> Area along the Great Wall> Hilly Mountains in the east of the Jindong-Yuxi Region> Hilly areas in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Priority in the continuing scenarios: the Sanjiang Plain in the Songnen Plains> the area along the Great Wall> the hilly and gully region of the Loess Plateau in the Jinshan-Shaanxi Province> the hilly area in Shandong and the plateau in the Sichuan-Chongqing Plateau.Priority in the extreme Scenario: Sanjiang Plain,Songnen> Inner Mongolia and the Great Wall along the line> Loess Plateau> Huanghuaihai> Southwest> South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.5.It is proposed to construct seed potato planting area,food potato planting area and mixed potato planting area under potato-staple scenario and to construct the the dominant potato planting area,traditional potato planting area and transition potato planting area under continuation scenario.Taking extreme scenario as the starting point of policy construction,the layout of the entire industrial chain is carried out in the region with adavantages of potato planting.The new human-land relationship and the awareness of the bottom line of food production are established under the condition of insufficient subsistence rations.The strategic positioning of "prepared food","approved food" and "selected food" is strengthened.The food security strategy is raised from quantity security to the political and social-political security strategy of bottom line-quantity-variety.