| Tourism has become one of the fastest growing industries in the world and plays an increasingly important role in the development of world economy.As an important carrier of the development of modern tourism,theme park shows vigorous vitality in the world,among which Disney Group is the champion.China’s economy has entered the new normal state,and tourism is showing great strength.On the one hand,along with the economic development,social progress,and the improvement of vacation system,China’s tourism demand continues to grow;on the other hand,the structural problems of tourism supply are relatively serious,e.g.,the excessive supply of overall sightseeing products,the insufficient supply of effective leisure products,and the massive outflow of tourism consumption.Therefore,the rapid development of theme parks has become the objective demand to meet the growing needs for leisure and entertainment,receiving more and more national attention.Taking Hong Kong Disneyland and Shanghai Disneyland for example,based on the genetic logic of tourism man-land relationship,following the time history of Disneyland development in China(Hong Kong Disneyland opening → Shanghai Disneyland project landing → Shanghai Disneyland opening),at the same time,considering such affective variables as desires and preferences of domestic tourists to Disneyland,we endeavor to revise the tourism gravity model,then drawing on the data from mainland tourist market of Hong Kong Disneyland,estimate the parameters of the revised tourist gravity model,used to predict the spatial structure of domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland in construction,afterwards depict the spatial distribution characteristics of the domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland since its opening,and then verify the rationality of prediction result and model correction.From individual cases to general conditions,from theoretical proposition to theoretical application and detection,we strive to reveal the man-land relationship mechanism of international top theme parks,improve the research knowledge system of theme park tourist market spatial structure,and expand the research perspective and paradigm of tourism geography.Hong Kong Disneyland is a product of the Asian financial turmoil which has led to a downturn in tourism industry,and has been entrusted with the important task of boosting Hong Kong’s economy.Throughout the development of Hong Kong Disneyland,the period of 2010-2013 is on the rise.The mainland market plays a decisive role in the tourist market composition of Hong Kong Disneyland,and is the key factor of its profitability.Exploring and revealing the distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of the mainland tourist market of Hong Kong Disneyland in regional,provincial and urban spatial scales,can lay a solid foundation for the subsequent spatial structure forecast of Shanghai Disneyland’s tourist market.Research shows that:(1)2010-2013,there lies spatial scale dependence in the distribution pattern and evolution process of Hong Kong Disneyland’s mainland tourist market,and the evolutionary trends are different in different spatial scales,featuring the coexistence of overall outward diffusion and partial cluster agglomeration.With eastern coastline and central BeijingGuangzhou Railway being the main axis,from south to north,diffuse outwards;with regional tourist market surrounding core city,in the Pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Chengdu-Chongqing Area,Wuhan and other city groups,agglomerate into clusters.(2)On the national scale,the spatial pattern evolution of Hong Kong Disneyland’s mainland tourist market presents undulating expansion mode,the market coverage rate increasing,the geographical concentration decreasing,the friction and impedance function of distance against passenger flow weakening,the hinterland scope expanding,the medium-and-long distance tourist market share increasing substantially,and no longer over-focusing on South China.On the regional scale,the distribution gap of Hong Kong Disneyland’s mainland tourist market among the east,the middle and the west is fairly large,the east ranking the first in density,the middle taking the second place,the west coming last in density,from east to west,presenting the gradient distribution pattern from high to low,and the tourist source distribution on the two sides of "Hu Huanyong Line" differs greatly.At the provincial level,Hong Kong Disneyland’s mainland tourist market shows the trend of spatial equilibrium,from the polarization stage dominated solely by Guangdong Province to the diffusion stage featuring the rise of a plurality of provinces and regions.The first level tourist market always includes Guangdong Province,Beijing and Shanghai;Beijing,Shanghai and Fujian Province show high occupancy and high growth;Guangdong,Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces present high occupancy and low growth rate.On the urban scale,the mainland tourist market of Hong Kong Disneyland presents a "multi-core" distribution pattern nationwide,with obvious directional characteristics of large and medium-sized cities,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen becoming the first level tourist market;within the province,the urban tourist market shows obvious spatial differentiation,the provincial capital city becoming the core tourist market.The market forecast plays a key role in tourism decision-making.However,in the absence of historical data,it remains an unsolved problem for the tourist market forecast of destinations which are not yet open to the public.The existing tourism gravity model is presented with three main explanatory variables: attractiveness of tourist destination,emissiveness of tourist origin,and spatial damping between the destination and origin.This paper makes modifications on the model as follows:(1)it introduces tourist rate which aims at replacing total population with tourist population to measure the tourist scale and accurately determine its base quota;(2)it introduces the element of tourist willingness,which is measured and estimated by using Baidu Index to clarify the preference for tourism destination.Thus,the scope of applying gravity model is not solely confined within the large and medium-scale tourist destinations(namely,cities,provinces and countries).The modified gravity model can also be applicable to the small-scale tourist destinations(namely,scenic spots).Likewise,it will avoid the interference of intervening opportunity.Furthermore,there is no significant correlation between any two variables in the modified model.Based on statistics of mainland tourists to Hong Kong Disneyland and socioeconomic statistics of China’s provinces and municipalities from 2009 to 2013,this paper forecasts the spatial structure of domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland through the modified gravity model.The research shows that:(1)Disneyland’s strong brand effect drives tourists to overcome obstacles,so the impact brought about by spatial damping is reduced in some degree;and then tourism demand of mainland tourists for Disneyland as a whole is inelastic.(2)The spatial distribution of domestic tourist market of shanghai Disneyland remains strongly concentrated in neighboring region under the influence of distance-decay theory,it is also mainly concentrated in eastern region and major cities driven by level of socioeconomic development.Based on the forecast of this paper,the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to account for 71.45% of the domestic market,and china’s eastern region to occupy 82.40%,39 major cities 41.44%.(3)Through cross verification,the coincident degree between the theoretical value deduced from the modified tourism gravity model and the actual value is better than that between the theoretical value deduced from the existing model and the actual value.Accordingly,the newly modified tourism gravity model proves to be more effective than the existing model.Limited by data samples,the research dimensions of tourist market spatial structure basically rest on the provincial level,instead of going deep into the urban level,thus the refined study of tourism market spatial structure has always been a difficult problem.Shanghai Disneyland,as a product of globalization,Chinese cultural confidence and tourism consumption upgrade,has achieved profitability on the first anniversary of its opening ceremony,and received tens of millions of tourists,therefore attracting much attention.Digging into the geographic information data contained in the network text,making use of regional differentiation index system,drawing support from GIS spatial analysis tool,and using city as the basic research unit,this article aims to set up the "nationwide-regional-urban agglomeration-provincial-urban" spatial hierarchy analysis framework,so as to make multi-scale decomposition and precise expression of the spatial pattern of Shanghai Disneyland domestic tourist market.Research shows that:(1)Shanghai Disneyland domestic tourist market features "overall dispersion and partial cluster" in spatial distribution,main tourist market aggregating in state-level urban agglomeration,while provincial tourist market concentrating in the core city.The domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland features obvious eastern orientation,urban agglomeration orientation,near-field orientation and large and medium-sized city orientation: the market share of 12 provinces on the east coast accounting for 75.57% of the total;the eight state-level urban agglomerations accounting for 77.35%;the Yangtze river delta city cluster taking up almost a half;39 key cities occupying a total of 71.18%.(2)On the nationwide scale,Shanghai Disneyland tourist market has a high coverage,obvious spatial differentiation and complex spatial use curve.On the regional scale,Shanghai Disneyland tourist market features graded distribution pattern,high in the east and low in the west,following the "Hu Huanyong Line",while the southern and northern tourist markets basically stay in equilibrium.At the provincial level,there are obvious spatial hierarchical distribution characteristics,highly consistent with the spatial structure of revisiting market.Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Beijing are the primary market.On the urban scale,the distribution pattern features "one-pole multi-core" in the nationwide perspective,and "single-core supplemented by double-core" in the provincial scope.(3)Actual verification shows that it is reasonable to introduce travel intention and travel rate into the tourism gravity model.There exist certain errors between regional differentiation index system of the provincial level and that of the urban level.Urban spatial scale research can reveal the operability and practical significance of the spatial distribution characteristics of resort tourist market,contributing to the refined study of resort spatial structure. |
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