Research On The Relationship Between Garlic Price And The Behavior Of Subjects In The Industrial Chain

In recent years,the price of garlic has fluctuated frequently,which seriously affects the economic interests of the main parts in the industrial chain such as producers and consumers.Especially in the context of the globalization of market economy,the garlic industry faces real obstacles such as low price competitiveness index,low added value of export products,and relatively lack of export of deep-processed products.The huge fluctuations in garlic prices will have a profound impact on China's garlic exports.This has made the development of small-scale agricultural products such as garlic face new difficulties,namely how to alleviate the price fluctuations and protect the economic interests of producers,consumers and other subjects.At the same time,there is not only one-way influence between the price of garlic and the stakeholders of the industrial chain,besides the behavior of the main body of the industrial chain will also adversely affect the price of garlic.In the existing research on the fluctuation of agricultural product prices,domestic and foreign scholars mainly study from one-way perspective of volatility,influencing factors and transmission effects,and there are few studies on the two-way interaction between the price of agricultural products and the behavior of stakeholders in the industrial chain from the perspective of the whole industry chain.Based on the above background and the theory of equilibrium price theory and industrial chain theory,this paper comprehensively used the methods of norm analysis,questionnaire analysis,theory and empirical analysis to expound the development status and main problems of garlic industry,and explore the fluctuation of garlic price.The interaction between garlic producers,middlemen and consumer behavior,and according to the research conclusions,we proposed corresponding policy recommendations.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of the status quo of garlic industry development.In 2016,China's garlic production accounted for 79.77% of global production.In 2017,garlic products accounted for20.55% of the total vegetable exports in the country.As a key garlic producing area,Shandong's garlic production accounted for 52.08% of the total national output in 2016.In2017,the quantity and amount of garlic exports accounted for 58.36% and 61.55% of the national garlic exports,respectively.From January 2004 to December 2018,the national garlic market price showed cyclical fluctuations,with a total fluctuation range of 0.87-13.69yuan/kg.Based on the household survey data of 417 garlic growers in Shandong Province,the average planting cost per mu in 2017 was 3,788.96 yuan,of which raw material cost accounted for the highest proportion(46.04%),labor cost and land cost accounted for 24.87%and 23.93%,respectively.By comparing the cost-benefit ratios of growers of different planting scales,it is concluded that the planting cost-benefit ratio of garlic is increasing with the expansion of planting scale.Analysis of the factors affecting the net income of garlic planting by means of stepwise regression model found that,the net income of garlic was affected by the sales price of garlic,total annual output,raw material cost and labor cost.Among them,the sales price had a greater impact on net income.(2)Analysis of the relationship between garlic price and producer behavior.First,the Nerlove model was used to analyze the influence of garlic price on the producers in different regions of China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The producer will adjust the garlic planting area according to the planting area in previous years;(2)The effect of garlic price on planting behavior is inversely proportional to the producer's garlic planting area;(3)The long-term and short-term supply elasticity coefficient of garlic is low,and the price volatility is relatively weak to the producer.The second is to verify the factors affecting the price of garlic by means of semi-logarithmic linear regression model.It is found that the market environment characteristics are the main factors affecting the price of garlic,the storage capacity of the cold storage and other storage facilities,and the participation of farmers' professional cooperatives and the degree of understanding market information will increases the bargaining power of producers and has a greater impact on garlic prices;besides individual characteristics of producers' planting years,education level and age have little effect on garlic prices.(3)Analysis of the relationship between garlic price and the behavior of middlemen.Firstly,compared to the purchasers who directly resell garlic to downstream entities,the operating income of the acquirer with cold storage is more susceptible to the price of the garlic market.However,since the purchase price level is mainly controlled by the garlic market,the influence of the buyers on the large fluctuations in garlic prices is small.Secondly,the purchasers of the self-purchasing model are greatly affected by the price of garlic.The purchasers of the generation storage model is less affected by the market price of garlic due to the stable storage income.At the same time,the fluctuation in garlic prices will also amplify the speculative risks of the distribution store;the hoarding behavior of the store and the capital speculation have a significant impact on the large fluctuations in garlic prices.Finally,the price of garlic has an important impact on the production and operation costs of processing enterprises.The behavior of single processing enterprises can not cause long-term sharp fluctuations in garlic prices.Further analysis of garlic export trade data using VARmodel shows that the price and the volume of export trade have a significant positive impact,and the international market price of garlic has a significant negative impact on the domestic market price of garlic.(4)Analysis of the relationship between garlic price and consumer behavior.Firstly,we use the binary logistic regression model to analyze the consumer consumption behavior under the fluctuation of garlic price,and it shows that the personal characteristics(age,family monthly income level),the characteristics of garlic purchasing behavior(purchase frequency,monthly average garlic consumption expenditure)and the price cognition characteristics(the sensitivity of garlic price fluctuations and the degree of price concern)are the main influencing factors of consumers' garlic consumption behavior.Secondly,the analysis of the factors affecting the retail price of garlic through the VAR model is concluded that the purchasing power of consumers(the per capita disposable income of urban residents)has a significant impact on the retail price of garlic.The statistical data of garlic consumption preference indicates that the demand for garlic consumption is relatively stable.Under the premise of a certain supply of the market,the consumption link is not the core link that causes the price of the garlic market to fluctuate greatly.Based on the above research,this paper believes that the price of garlic is mainly affected by the equilibrium of supply and demand in the garlic market.However,due to the problems of information opacity and information asymmetry,the various stakeholders in the middle chain of the garlic industry chain can use the characteristics of easy storage,relatively stable consumption,and low price elasticity of garlic to take hoarding behavior,and the export trade factors of processing enterprises also has a significant impact on the domestic garlic market price.According to the research conclusions,this paper proposes market regulation policies such as promoting large-scale cultivation of garlic,regulating the garlic circulation market,and establishing a big data information platform for the whole industry chain.