| Pork is the No.1 meat product consumed by urban and rural residents in China and a kind of necessity of residents with a longest industrial chain and widest coverage in China's animal husbandry industry.It not only involves the economic benefits of nearly 50 million pig farmers but also has direct influence on the steady operation of the pig industry.However,in the context of transformation and upgrading of the pig industry,the prices of pork in China are greatly volatile,and the phenomena “cheap pork hurts farmers” and “expensive pork hurts the market” happen alternatively,which has pushed the whole pig industry into a dramatically changing vicious circle.This has affected not only the normal living consumption of urban and rural residents but also the healthy development of China's pig industry and thus has unavoidably affected China's national economic development and social stability.Therefore,conducting in-depth study on the pork price fluctuation mechanism has important theoretical reference and practical significance to stabilizing China's pork market prices,guaranteeing the benefits of the producers and consumers in the pork market,and ensuring the steady and healthy development of the pig industry and even China's national economy.This paper,on the basis of in-depth understanding of the pork industry chain and price fluctuation,adopts the system dynamics method to explore the key links that affect pork price fluctuation from the supply and demand sub-systems.Then,the paper further starts with the key factors in every link to study the vertical transmission mechanism of the port price industry chain and the influences of market information and international factors on pork prices.On this basis,this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures and suggestions on stabilizing the development of China's pig industry and curbing fluctuation of pork prices in China.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper conducts calculation and comparative analysis on the basic characteristics of China's pork price fluctuation.The research findings show that fluctuation is still a connotation characteristic of the pork prices under China's market economy system.Specifically,on one hand,after China joined WTO,China's pork price fluctuation has become more frequent and drastic.on the other hand,the range of pork price fluctuation is obviously greater than the range of fluctuation of the prices of lamb,beef and other like products and the frequency and range of pork price fluctuation in such countries as the UK and Japan.In addition,seasonal rises and falls of pork prices in China are more obvious,and China's pork price fluctuation cycle is longer than that of the US.(2)This paper adopts the system dynamics method to form the price dynamic effect system and explore the coupling of the key factors on China's pork industry chain.The study shows that the scale of fertile sows,prices of inputs,slaughtering supplies and international factors will result in proportion unbalance between supply and demand in the pork market and further cause drastic fluctuation of pork prices.Additionally,after the system is formed,this study,through conducting analogue simulation of the government reserve parameters,has found that the state's meat reserve policies have no substantial influences on the demands for and prices of pork because of the limited quantity,frequency and scope of the policies.(3)On the basis of the above contents,this paper adopts the measurement model to further analyze the internal logic of China's pork price fluctuation.First of all,this paper investigates the influences of the breeding stock and subsidy factors of fertile sows in the breeding link on the prices of live pigs.The research findings show that a bidirectional feedback relationship between the scale of fertile sows and pork prices exists.In other words,an obvious negative relationship between the current breeding stock of fertile sows and the prices of live pigs in the following 10 terms exists,and the current prices of live pigs have a significant positive role in promoting the current breeding stock of live pigs.Although fertile sow subsidy policy has encouraged the increase of the breeding stock of fertile sows,it has no excitation effect on the substantial improvement of pig farmers' breeding technologies and skills.(4)Starting with cost transmission paths,this paper analyzes in depth the feedstuff price-feed price-live pig price transmission mechanism.The research findings show that a longterm equilibrium and time-lag relationship between various kinds of prices in the price system in the live pig breeding link exists.In such a long-term relationship,the prices of corns have the strongest impact on the prices of live pigs,while the prices of bean pulp have the weakest impact.In a short period of time,the prices of live pigs in the following term have the strongest impact on the current prices of live pigs,followed by the prices of corns.(5)This paper explores the relationships between the prices in three links – breeding,slaughter and sales by using the asymmetric price transmission theory and discusses the amplification effect of market information on the prices in the slaughter link from the angle of “information economics”.The research findings indicate that asymmetric transmission caused by fragmented market in the slaughter link has intensified the price fluctuation on the pork industry chain,the influence of the “positive market information” causing the rise of pork prices in the slaughter link is greater than that of the “negative market information” causing the falls of slaughter prices,and the “positive market information” has significant amplification effect on pork price fluctuation.(6)This paper analyzes the changes in China's import and export trade of pork and its main structure and investigates the relationship between China's pork prices and international pork prices.The research findings show that after China's import volume of pork started to grow rapidly in 2009,the effect of China's port market on the international pork market has been expanding;from January 2005 to December 2008,correlation between China's pork market and the international pork market was relatively weak,but from January 2009 to December 2016,this correlation rapidly became stronger.(7)At last,this paper conducts comparative analysis on the breeding conditions,characteristics of price fluctuation,production organization modes and profit distribution as well as influence of the futures market on the prices of live pigs on Chinese and American pig industry chains.The research results show that large-scale and systemized production on American live pig industry chain has reduced the range and frequency of live pig price fluctuation and futures trading has effectively eased drastic fluctuation of the spot prices of live pigs.Therefore,China should develop a pork market with large-scale pig breeding and highly concentrated production links so as to ensure stable retail prices and sales income in the pork market and gradually establish and improve China's pork futures market. |
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