Study On The Selection Of Chinese FTA Strategies Based On The Heterogeneity Of Effects

Since the 21 st century,in the context of regional economic integration,the number of bilateral and regional trade agreements signed worldwide has been increasing,and the free trade area(hereinafter referred to as FTA)has gradually become an important form of promoting regional economic development.Since the reform and opening up,China has gradually involved in the process of regional economic integration in the world,after joining the world trade organization in 2001,China has established FTAs with many countries and regions of Asia,Latin America,Oceania and Europe.In recent years,with the continuous promotion of the "O ne Belt And One Road" initiative,RCEP negotiations have made breakthrough progress,and China's FTA construction has entered a new stage of development,the scale and number of ftas have been expanding,at the same time,in the process of FTA negotiations,the contents and areas of the negotiations have also been gradually extended to service trade and other areas,active FTA negotiation with other countries in the world will become one of the important measures of C hina's opening-up and play an important role in the whole economic development.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,based on the data of free trade area service network,this paper summarizes the development situation of China's FTA.The analysis shows that the FTA established of C hina mainly involve neighboring and similar countries and regions,most of them are developing countries and regions,and C hina is at the center of the economic and trade network of FTA countries and regions;Among the FTA agreements,the primary industry and the secondary industry are mostly involved,while the tertiary industry generally involves less,The overall tariff level between China and the countries and regions that have signed FTA shows a declining trend,at present,many specific segmented industries have achieved zero tariff.In general,by the end of 2019,China has basically formed a pattern of economic integration based on Asia and radiating to the world under the "O ne Belt And One Road" initiative,the next FTA blank area in Europe and Africa is the effort and development direction of China's FTA construction.Secondly,the GTAP model is used to analyze the traditional economic effects of the established FTA of China.Results show that the establishment of the FTA has promoted the increase of China's GDP,and improved social welfare and terms of trade,the growth of import is significantly higher than that of export,and the trade deficit effect is obvious,C hina's textile and apparel industries saw the largest increase in output,while the livestock sector has been hit hardest,the import of livestock,vehicles and components increased a lot,while the export of crop production increased the most,the decline in exports is more serious is the financial and trade industries,forestry and other services;Study on country heterogeneity also found that the FTA with the developing countries have reinforced China's relatively advantageous position in the foreign trade,ountries and regions that are close to C hina in geographical space and have close trade links with C hina can promote the development of China's economy by establishing FTA with C hina,But the FTA has also greatly increased China's imports,while China's trade surplus has been shrinking,the economic effect of FTA shows a downward trend after the openness of other member states is continuously deepened,in the later stage of FTA tariff reduction,it has a greater impact on C hina's GDP,socia l welfare and import and export;According to the analysis of industry heterogeneity,in the process of FTA development in C hina,the secondary industry is still the main driving force for C hina's advantageous industries and economic development,especially in the fields of textile,electronics and transportation equipment manufacturing,and the linkage development of industries is obvious,the primary industry is still an area that cannot be ignored in the cooperation with developing countries,and the scale and openness of the tertiary industry need to be further improved.Then,from the perspective of global value chain,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the economic impact of FTA on trade and industrial added value from the perspectives of FTA quantity and FTA depth.The study found that the growth of China's added value in trade and industry was also driven by the FTA,compared with general traditional trade activities,FTA plays a more important role in industries and trade related to global value chain activities,however,at present,the pulling effect of China's FTA mainly depends on the expansion of trade partners and trade scope,the level and depth of C hina's FTA construction still need to be further improved;In the context of the rapid development o f science and technology,the influence of geographical distance on the value added of trade is gradually decreasing,and population is still an important indicator in the development of China's foreign trade;Studies on country heterogeneity show that the establishment of FTA between C hina and developed countries and regions has the largest driving effect on China's foreign trade through the promotion of trade liberalization,the high level of FTA participation and the countries and regions that established FTA with China after the financial crisis in 2008 have also significantly contributed to the improvement of C hina's participation in global value chain and competitiveness,the establishment of FTA with China's neighboring countries is still more conducive to the improvement of China's trade added value and economic development,however,with the development of science and technology,the influe nce of geographical distance on the selection of trading partners is gradually declining;According to the analysis of industry heterogeneity,the primary industry is the basis of economic and trade cooperation between China and FTA member states,the FTA mainly affects the primary industry from the perspective of quantity and scale,the secondary industry is C hina's dominant industry and the industry with the highest degree of trade openness,the development of the secondary industry is influenced by the number and depth of FTA,there are few tariff reduction arrangements in the tertiary industry between C hina and F TA countries and regions,so the influence of FTA on C hina's service industry is not significant,and the openness of service trade needs to be further improved.Finally,this paper studies the nonlinear influence of FTA on C hina's economic growth under different transformation mechanisms from the nonlinear per spective of FTA economic effect.The results show that,on the one hand,the non-linear influence of FTA quantity on C hina's economic growth mainly includes two mechanisms,in the early stage of the development of C hina's FTA,that is,when the number of FTA formally established in China is less than 14.7343,the expansion of the number and scale of FTA has a significant impact on China's economy,the depth of FTA plays a relatively small role,and fo reign trade still plays an important role in driving China'seconomic growth.After the financial crisis in 2008,with the gradual maturity and improvements of the construction of FTA in C hina,when the number of FTA exceeds 14.7343,the depth of FTA plays a more obvious role in driving economic growth than the number of FTA,under the influence of the economic situation,the role of FTA quantity and foreign trade in China's economic growth has declined slightly in recent years.O n the other hand,the non-linear influence of FTA depth on China's economic growth mainly includes three mechanisms,In the early stage of the development of China's FTA,that is,when C hina's average tariff level is greater than 9.6833%,the expansion of the number and scale of FTA has a significant impact on China's economy,the depth of FTA plays a relatively small role,and foreign trade still plays an important role in driving C hina's economic growth.With the gradual improvement of tariff reduction degree under the FTA framework,when the average tariff level of Chinese industries is between 0.6215% and 9.6833%,the influence of the number and depth of FTA on C hina's economic growth has been greatly improved,and the influence of FTA depth has become stronger,which is basically the same as that of the number of FTA,foreign trade still plays a strong role in driving C hina's economic growth.At present,when the average tariff level of various industries in China is lower than 0.6215%,under the background that tariffs between C hina and FTA countries and regions tend to be zero,the driving effect of FTA depth on economic growth has been further enhanced,replacing the number of FTA as the main FTA variable affecting C hina's economic growth,in the post-crisis era,influenced by the economic situation,the role of the number of FTA and foreign trade in C hina's economic growth has declined slightly in recent years.This paper has made innovations in the following aspects:Innovation 1: the existing researches on FTA mainly focus on the domestic and foreign bilateral level,lacking the overall grasp of China's FTA.This paper applies the innovation of social network analysis method to the combing of various ftas,and makes a more vivid and intuitive comprehensive analysis of the ftas established by China with 25 countries and regions by 2019,so as to clarify the trade and economic cooperation network relations between these countries and regions and C hina.Combined with the GTAP model,the effects of each FTA on the growth of traditio nal trade and economic development are analyzed in general equilibrium,Furthermore,the effect of FTA is further refined into different country and industry heterogeneity perspectives for research,which provides important thinking and Suggestions for China's choice of FTA country and industry strategy in the next step from a new perspective.Innovation 2: based on the specific details of tariff concessions in FTA agreements signed between C hina and various countries and regions,this paper obtained two comprehensive indicators of the number and depth of FTA through data sorting and matching,which well depicted the development of FTA and made some innovations from the research data.Furthermore,based on the input-output table and the global value chain database,the effect of FTA in the context of global value chain will be re-analyzed through innovative use of data of added value of trade and added value of industry,at the same time,measurement methods such as IV and GLS are applied to the control of model endogeneity and compared with the traditional effect of FTA,the integration of FTA and GVC is in line with the mainstream of economic globalization and trade liberalization from the perspective of research.Innovation 3: based on the previous study o n the value added of FTA trade and industrial value added,through a series of theoretical and data analysis,it points out that in the context of the rapid development of global value chain,the influence of FTA on China's economic development may have a certain non-linear mechanism.Moreover,taking the number and depth of FTA as the threshold variables,the PSTR model is used to test and estimate the threshold value and the specific effect mechanism,and innovations are made in the research perspective a nd method of FTA.In the process of further analyzing the relationship between FTA and GVC,the participation in GVC and the position of GVC are introduced to make the effect analysis of FTA more accurate and in line with the development of the modern world economy.