| The trade war between China and the us,which started in 2018,resumed and escalated in mid-2019 after a brief ceasefire.Since the establishment of the WTO in 1995,it has been working to reduce tariffs.Global tariffs have been steadily decreasing,and global trade liberalization is steadily advancing.U.S.unilateral tariff protection disrupted the process of trade liberalization and caused a huge rebound in the originally stable tariff level.However,with the deepening of globalization,production cooperation between countries has become closer,and the global allocation of production chains has made intermediate products frequent.Crossing the border,the increase in tariffs will inevitably increase the burden on trade by several times.What is the impact of tariff fluctuations on the cross-border collaborative production of enterprises in global value chains,and the study of tariffs in the context of global value chains is imperative?.It is against this background that we have made in-depth studies of tariff changes on the participation of global value chains.First,sort out the literature in the field of tariff research and global value chain research,and then use WTO tariff data and UIBE GVC global value chain indicator data to statistically analyze the current level of China's overall and industry tariffs and the level and participation of global value chains.After joining the WTO,tariff levels and global value chain participation and status indexes have changed in opposite directions.On this basis,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the negative impact of tariff protection on the participation and status of a country's industry's global value chain is fully explained,including the underlying logic behind the impact,and the negative impact of fixing other factors is tested.To the significance of the impact,and further put forward policy recommendations based on the conclusions.Specifically,the literature review begins with two modules: tariff research and global value chain research.After a comprehensive review of relevant literature in recent years,we have summarized the areas of tariff research into four major themes: effective protection rates,optimal tariffs,tariff uncertainty,and trade liberalization,and reviewed them one by one.Based on the concept of global value chain,we have also sorted out the three themes of global value chain,global value chain accounting,global value chain governance,and global value chain upgrade.After that,the status quo analysis of China's tariff levels and participation in global value chains was made from the overall and different industries.As far as China's tariffs are concerned,after joining the WTO,China's average tariffs are significantly higher than those of the three economies in the United States,Europe,and Japan,maintaining around 9.6%.The tariff levels of Chinese agricultural products,industrial products,Chinese high-tech industrial products,other industrial products,middle-class products,and final products showed a trend of first decline and then stabilization.Regardless of the average tariff or the actual tariff,the tariff on industrial products is lower than the tariff on agricultural products.Regardless of the average tariff or the actual tariff,hightech industrial products are lower than those of other industries.The average tariff on intermediate products is significantly lower than the final product tariff,but the actual tariff on intermediate products is slightly higher than the final product tariff.In terms of China's global value chain participation,China's global value participation is higher than India,the United States and Japan.China's global value chain position has surpassed Japan,but still lags behind the United States.China's participation in the global value chain of the high-tech industry is significantly higher than that of the general industry,but the status of the global value chain of the high-tech industry is indeed lower than that of the general industry.In addition,we found that the level of industrial tariffs first decreased and then stabilized;while the participation in global value chains was a watershed in 2008,which rose first,then declined,and then stabilized.Therefore,we can preliminary infer changes in industrial tariffs and global value chain participation.It is a negative relationship.The status of global value chains is also on the rise,so it can also be preliminarily inferred that the changes in industrial tariffs and the status of global value chains are also negative.The theoretical part is followed by the impact of tariffs on the participation and status of global value chains.The mechanism of the impact of tariffs on the participation of global value chains is based on the DS monopoly competition model,which incorporates the proxy variables of the tariff in the model,and the degree of freedom of flow variables,and finds that it has a positive impact on the optimal output of a country,thereby promoting a country.Global participation;the mechanism of the impact of tariffs on the status of global value chains is based on the model of Antras et al.,2013,which respectively constructed a model of the impact of tariffs on profit variables reflecting status and a model of impacts of tariffs on production stages.The impact on the elasticity of substitution of intermediate products has the opposite effect on a country's value chain status.The empirical part can be divided into three parts.The first part empirically analyzes the impact of tariffs on the participation of global value chains.The second part divides the data into two samples of high-tech industries and general manufacturing industries to study the impact of tariffs on global value chain participation The third part studies the impact of tariffs on participation in global value chains based on the mediation effect model.The research results show that the impact of tariffs on intermediate products on the participation and status of the industry's global value chain is significantly negative,and the impact of tariffs on final products on the participation and status of the industry's global value chain is also significantly negative.The regression results of the sub-samples are basically consistent with the regression results of the full sample.The tariff rates of intermediate products have a negative impact on the participation and status of global value chains in high-tech industries and the participation and status of global value chains in general manufacturing.The participation and status of global value chains in the technology industry and the participation and status of global value chains in the general manufacturing industry have negative effects.In the end,the full text is summarized,the structure of the full text and the core conclusions are sorted out,and corresponding policy suggestions and possible future research are put forward. |
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