Research On The Differentiation Effect Of Consumption Credit To Industrial Structure In China

Consumption is the purpose of national economic development and also the driving force,the official statistics show that in 2017,the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to China’s GDP was 58.80%,which exceeded the contribution rate of capital formation and net exports to GDP,and was the most important driving force for China’s national economic growth.However,compared with other major or emerging economies,such as the United States,Japan,the European Union,India etc,on the one hand,China’s overall national savings rate is obviously on the high side,and still has a lot of room for reduction.On the other hand,China’s per capita consumption expenditure level is obviously low,and there is still a lot of room for improvement,at the same time,China’s national economic development is facing the dual challenges of international trade friction and domestic overcapacity,further expansion of the domestic demand has become the key to enhancing the independence and security of national economic development.Consumption credit has developed rapidly under such a background of expanding domestic demand.Consumption credit refers to the loans made by banks,credit cooperatives,consumption finance companies,auto financing companies and other financial institutions for individuals and families to help them achieve specific consumption behavior and achieve specific consumption purposes.,it is a specific financial behavior that consumers borrow money to buy goods or services during the current shortage of funds.In 2017,China’s consumption credit balance reached 31.52 trillion yuans,15.84 times that of the consumption credit balance of 1.99 trillion yuan at the end of 2004.Consumption credit in the modern sense has only been developing for about 30 years in China.After experiencing the orientation stage and the early growth stage,at present,it is in the stage of growth and development.At present,consumption credit institutions in China generally include commercial banks,credit cooperatives,consumption finance companies,auto financing companies,micro-credit companies,licensed Internet financial companies,etc.Consumption credit products include housing loans,personal housing decoration loans,real estate mortgage loans,automobile loans,student loans,credit card loans,tourism loans,comprehensive consumption loans,small pledge loans,medical loans,large durable consumption goods loans,etc,most of the demand bodies of consumption credit business are located in urban areas,and they are younger,there are many kinds of consumption credit laws and policies in China,involving the legal basis of consumption credit,credit environment,institutional behavior,business operations and other aspects,which can effectively regulate the healthy development of consumption credit business in China to a certain extent.The rapid development of consumption credit in China,from the macroeconomic point of view,it promotes the release of the potential consumption demand of the domestic residents,and promotes the overall demand level of the national economy,according to Keynes’ theory that total demand determines total output,it is helpful for the national economy to maintain a rapid development momentum,from the microeconomic point of view,it eases the budgetary constraints faced by consumers in their current consumption decision-making,broadens the space for consumers’ optional consumption mix and the time for consumption distribution,according to Marshall’s cardinal utility theory,it helps to improve the utility level of consumptions.However,besides the macroeconomic growth effect and the microeconomic welfare effect of consumer’ utility of the consumption credit,there is also a mesoeconomic differentiation effect on the industrial structure,for example,the imbalance of industrial structure,the excessive proportion of real estate and the slow development of new service industries in the process of China’s economic development,which has aroused great concern and heated discussion from the public in recent years,this paper holds that the existing research literature on consumption credit pays more attention to the macro-aggregate effect on the national economy and the micro-improvement effect on consumer’ utility of consumption credit,it seldom involves the study of the medium-term impact of consumption credit on the industrial structure of the national economy,especially the prominent role of consumption credit in the differentiation of the industrial structure of the national economy.In this regard,this paper mainly studies the effect of consumption credit on the differentiation of the industrial structure of the national economy from the following three dimensions:The first dimension,analyzing the differentiation effect of consumption credit on industries from the perspective of horizontal spatial development,that is the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit in China develops too fast or even abnormally compared with other industries,the unbalanced development of the national economy industry is easy to lead to excessive investment,excess capacity and price disorder in the industry which directly benefit from consumption credit,and bring about the development dilemma of other industries.The second dimension,also from the perspective of horizontal spatial development to analyzing the differentiation effect of consumption credit on the development of enterprises within the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit,that is,the disparity between enterprises in the industries supported by consumption credit is too large,a small number of large enterprises "winner-take-all",the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises development "declining",giant enterprises are the source of industry monopoly ossification,small and medium-sized enterprises are the source of industry innovation vitality,the polarization of the development of enterprises in the industry will ultimately affect the development prospects of the industry.The third dimension,analyzing the differentiation effect of consumption credit on the development of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit in different periods from the perspective of vertical time development,that is,the cyclical fluctuation of the development of the industry which directly benefit from consumption credit,the inherent property of industry and the contraction and relaxation of consumption credit policy ultimately superimpose and magnify the amplitude and frequency of industry cycle fluctuation.This paper tries to analyze the formation mechanism of the effect of consumption credit on the industrial structure differentiation from the theoretical analysis,realistic analysis and empirical analysis,and put forward some reasonable policy suggestions,in order to eliminate or weaken the differentiation effect of consumption credit on industrial structure as far as possible,guide or carry forward the balanced promotion effect of consumption credit on industrial structure.There are six chapters in this paper.The research framework is as follows:The first chapter,the introduction,mainly includes the research background,research significance,literature review,main contents,research methods,research framework,technical line,possible innovation and research difficulties.The second chapter,the general situation of consumption credit in China,mainly includes the development process of Consumption credit in China,the current situation of Consumption credit in China,and a comparative introduction of the development process and current situation of consumption credit in the United States.The third chapter,the theoretical analysis of the effect of consumption credit on the industrial structure differentiation in China,mainly includes concepts of Industrial structure and differentiation,the characteristics of consumption credit,the impact mechanism of consumption credit on consumers,financial institutions and production enterprises,the direct and indirect path of consumption credit on industrial structure differentiation.The fourth chapter,the practical analysis of the effect of consumption credit on the industrial structure differentiation in China,mainly including the effect of consumption credit on the development of inter industry,the effect of consumption credit on the differentiation of development between enterprises in the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit,the fluctuation effect of consumption credit on the development of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit in different periods.The fifth chapter,the empirical analysis of the effect of consumption credit on the differentiation of industrial structure in China,mainly including the analysis model construction,data acquisition and empirical analysis of the effect of consumption credit on the differentiation between the development of inter industry,the analysis model construction,data acquisition and empirical analysis of the effect of consumption credit on the development differentiation among enterprises in the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit in China,and the analysis model construction,data acquisition and empirical analysis of the cyclical fluctuation effect of consumption credit on the development of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit in different periods in China.The sixth chapter,conclusions and policy recommendations,on the basis of the full text analysis,combing the full text of the analysis conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy path options,in order to achieve the ultimate goal of this paper.In summary,this paper is based on the use of a variety of research methods,such as the combination of horizontal and vertical comparison,static analysis and dynamic analysis,from the surface to the inner layer,theoretical analysis,practical analysis and empirical analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,combined with Marx’s political economics,Samuelson’s Neo Classical comprehensive economics,econometrics and other methods,taking consumption credit as the only characteristic variable separately,the national economic industries are divided into the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit and other industries,and draw lessons from Feder to study the model of the impact of exports on the national economy,and obtain the promotion effect of consumption credit on the development of ndustries which directly benefit from consumption credit and the crowding-out effect on other industries are obtained;Taking consumption credit as an important variable into the determinant model of industry concentration,we can get the influence degree of consumption credit on the development differentiation effect of enterprises within the industry;HP filter method,VAR model and ARDL model are used to analyze the impact of consumption credit on real estate cycle fluctuation to represent the effect of consumption credit on the industry cycle fluctuation.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,China’s consumption credit has entered a period of development and expansion after experiencing an early period of exploration and growth,and the total scale of consumption credit has been considerable,which has played a supporting role in economic growth,but compared with the consumption credit developed more mature in the United States,China’s consumption credit still has a gap in the structure,mainly reflected in the consumption credit coverage of consumption behavior and consumption group imbalance.Secondly,consumption credit reduces consumers’ preventive savings,helps them break through liquidity constraints and improves current consumption levels,financial institutions prefer to develop consumption credit business by consuming underlying consumption goods which have good value attributes,good liquidity and strong value preservation,the influence of consumption credit on production enterprises is indirect and lagging,which affects the sales,production and investment behavior of production enterprises,and finally forms the industrial structure.Thirdly,consumption credit drives demand expansion to bring about the expansion of consumption goods industry,consumption credit increases net interest rate of sales,asset turnover rate and equity multiplier to promote the economic benefit of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit,the existing consumption credit is conducive to the development of head enterprises from the perspective of risk control and efficiency improvement,the expansion and contraction cycle of consumption credit superimposes the expansion and contraction cycle of the industry itself,which will aggravate the cyclical fluctuation of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit.Fourthly,the dual risk control characteristics of consumption credit inhibit the supply of credit funds in other industries,especially high-risk emerging industries and small and medium-sized enterprises.The rapid development of consumption credit brings about the rising cost of credit funds and erodes the profits of other industries,in addition,the rapid development of consumption credit will restrict the financing ability of SMEs to a certain extent,thus forming a negative impact on the development of SMEs.Fifthly,the practice of economic operation and empirical analysis show that consumption credit has expanded the gap between the development of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit and other industries,the empirical results show that,under the comprehensive influence of the promotion effect of consumption credit on the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit and the crowding-out effect on other industries,every 1% growth of the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit pushed by consumption credit,the output value gap between the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit and other industries is about 0.2% of the national economic output of the year,and the practice of economic operation and empirical analysis show that consumption credit has expanded the gap between the development of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises within the industries which directly benefit from consumption credit,the empirical results show that the market share of the top 10 enterprises in the consumption credit industry will increase by 0.16% for every 1% increase in the support of consumption credit,and the practice of economic operation and empirical analysis also show that consumption credit has expanded the amplitude and frequency of the cycle fluctuation of credit consumption industry,the empirical results show that the consumption credit growth rate fluctuates by 1%,the credit consumption industry will fluctuates by 0.45%,especially in the real estate industry,about 45% of the cyclical fluctuations are caused by fluctuations in housing loans and development loans.According to the conclusions of this paper,in order to eliminate or weaken the unfavorable effect of consumption credit on the industrial structure as far as possible,and to guide or carry forward the beneficial effect of consumption credit on the industrial structure,the following policy recommendations are put forward:Firstly,broaden the coverage of consumption credit in China,including: conforming to the trend of consumption upgrading,introducing new types of consumption credit products,for example,training and education consumption,leisure and tourism consumption,beauty and health consumption and other new development-oriented consumption loans to meet the needs of morality,intelligence and physique,focusing on the integration of urban and rural areas,the original consumption credit business developed in urban areas can be reproduced to rural areas after simple adjustment,complementing the shortcomings of the development of consumption credit in the vast rural areas,throughout the natural life cycle,and providing the corresponding consumption credit along with the change of consumptions’ age,which financial institutions can not only effectively reduce the cost of comprehensive customer acquisition,but also effectively control the risk of developing innovative consumption credit business on the basis of long-term trusted customers.Secondly,change the credit mode of consumption credit,including: the focus of risk control of consumption credit to the credit subject-consumers tilt,gradually dilute the dependence on the value attributes of consumption goods,the credit arrangement of consumption credit from a single consumption behavior to a comprehensive credit of consumption daily consumption expenditure,which can not only guarantee the efficiency and benefit of the main body of the supply and demand of consumption credit business,but also make the amount of consumption credit more evenly used in various consumption expenditures according to the existing consumption habits,so that the total utility of consumption credit to economic and social development and micro-welfare effectiveness of consumer can be brought into play,and the adverse impact on the industrial structure can be eliminated.Thirdly,improve the service level of consumption credit,including: actively disseminate and promote the basic knowledge of consumption credit,advocate the correct concept of consumption,promote social formation of a good consumption culture,enhancing the contribution and support of consumption to the development of national economy,broadening the structure of residents’ consumption expenditure,guiding the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and reasonably guiding residents to carry out orderly consumption behavior,innovative integration into all kinds of consumption scenarios,promoting the convenient use of consumption credit in various new consumption behaviors.Promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of the national economy,meeting people’s diversified consumption needs,and eliminating the adverse effects of consumption credit on the industrial structure,we should enhance the service level of comprehensive consumption credit business by means of electronic,information and mobile technologies,consumers are willing to use consumption credit services in various new types of consumption spending,which has promoted the rapid growth of new consumption.Fourthly,we should weaken the policy functions of consumption credit,including: Planning the development goals and paths of consumption credit from a long-term and overall level,at the short-term and micro level,we should relax the intervention in the specific operation of consumption credit,to avoid the "ups and downs" in the development of consumption credit and ensure the smooth and orderly development of consumption credit,we should not only pursue a large number of consumption credit supply institutions,but also lay stress on building a multi-level and diversified supply system of consumption credit,small and micro financial institutions and industrial financial institutions in the future.Even if non-financial institutions participate in the operation of consumption credit legally,consumption credit can cover more types of consumption,so that consumption credit can guide people’s consumption behavior and then guide the balanced development of economic and industrial structure.Fifthly,improve the consumption credit laws and policies,including: timely formulation of a comprehensive consumption credit laws or regulations,to regulate the principles,scope,subject,process,rights and obligations adjustment and punishment mechanism involved in the development of consumption credit business,so as to provide a basic criterion for the horizontal and vertical development of consumption credit in China,legislation to follow up the study of social consumption behavior and consumption credit trends,attention should be paid to consumption credit demand and even consumption credit behavior derived from the new consumption field,and the relevant operational norms of low level should be upgraded in time,this type of work can be related to the introduction of self-regulatory industry codes of conduct by relevant industry associations,an open and inclusive attitude towards the new consumption credit as a whole,and the formulation of self-regulatory regulations to promote its healthy and orderly development from the aspects of occurrence mechanism,process design,interest norms,risk control,information reporting and so on.Sixthly,improve the supporting system of consumption credit,including: building a broad coverage,convenient use,authoritative and objective social credit system,by building a good social credit system,on the one hand,it can effectively expand the scope of consumption credit business coverage,change the way of credit in consumption credit,on the other hand,it can effectively reduce the operating costs of consumption credit,improve the operational efficiency of consumption credit,so as to better play consumption credit industry.It has positive effect on the development of national economy and society,and reduces its negative influence on the differentiation of industrial structure,enhance the convenience of public consumption infrastructure,popularization of convenient consumption infrastructure can not only make the existing consumption behavior more extensive development,but also can give birth to some new consumption behavior,build a legally compliant consumption credit assets backed securities secondary circulation market,improve the liquidity of consumption credit assets,in order to further reduce the rate of return required by consumption credit assets,with lower loan interest rate costs to broaden the consumption credit business can be grafted consumption scenarios.