Dynamic Simulation And Adjustment Method Of Benefit Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Projects Based On The Satisfaction Equilibrium

The characteristics of long operation cycle,multiple risk factors and complex stakeholder relationships of PPP projects often lead to unreasonable distribution of benefits or difficulties in achieving the objectives of benefits,which lead to dissatisfaction of stakeholders of PPP projects,and affect the good cooperation and sustainable development of PPP projects.Many studies have shown that stakeholder dissatisfaction is one of the important reasons leading to the failure of PPP projects.Therefore,it is necessary to reasonably evaluate and dynamically evaluate the satisfaction of stakeholders in PPP projects,and to adjust the unbalanced benefit relationship so as to maintain the relative balance of benefits.In view of this,this paper takes stakeholder satisfaction as the core,studies the relationship among stakeholders,satisfaction,risk and benefit adjustment mechanism,and explores the method of PPP project benefit adjustment under the effect of risk,in order to realize the improvement of PPP project cooperation relationship and promote the sustainability of PPP project.Firstly,this paper regards the urban rail transit PPP project as the research background,defines the core stakeholders of the urban rail transit PPP project from three dimensions: initiative,influence and benefit by using the multi-dimensional subdivision method and Mitchell scoring method for reference,and establishes the list of core stakeholders' benefits of PPP project by combining literature identification and expert interviews.By investigating and using factor analysis method,the intrinsic relationship among various benefits is sorted out,and the basic benefits of the core stakeholders are demanded: the government pays attention to less financial subsidies,good social benefits and makes passengers satisfied;social capital pays attention to the realization of expected benefits of projects;passengers pay attention to lower ticket prices,better vehicle quality and higher rail transit service level.Secondly,based on the basic benefits of the core stakeholders,the evaluation index system of stakeholder satisfaction is established,and the corresponding index weight is obtained by expert scoring method.In the quantification of evaluation index,the ratio of subsidy,actual passenger flow and expectation is used to express the satisfaction index of government subsidy and social benefit respectively;the internal rate of return is used to express the satisfaction index of social capital to the expected income of the project;and the fare,vehicle quality performance and full load rate are used to express passenger to price,vehicle quality performance and rail transit respectively.Based on the maximum and minimum values of each measure,the trapezoidal membership function is constructed to quantify the service level satisfaction index.The establishment of stakeholder satisfaction evaluation index system provides methodological guidance for quantitative evaluation of stakeholder satisfaction,and also lays the foundation for building dynamic simulation and adjustment model of stakeholder satisfaction based on system dynamics.Thirdly,in order to establish the dynamic relationship between stakeholder satisfaction,the causal relationship between stakeholder satisfaction and stakeholder satisfaction,as well as between different stakeholder satisfaction is analyzed,and the feedback loop between them is explored.The research shows that the stakeholder satisfaction is not only interrelated but also conflicting,and there is a close relationship between them.On the basis of establishing the causality and flow charts of stakeholders,the dynamic simulation model of stakeholder satisfaction based on system dynamics is established by determining the mathematical function relationship among variables,and the dynamic simulation and evaluation of stakeholder satisfaction are realized.Especially by adjusting the setting of key parameters,we can realize the dynamic simulation of stakeholder satisfaction of key benefit adjustment factors such as price,subsidy and risk,and reveal the changing trend between them.In order to solve the imbalance of stakeholder satisfaction in dynamic simulation of stakeholder satisfaction,this paper establishes an benefit adjustment framework of urban rail transit PPP project based on satisfaction equilibrium,puts forward the principles and strategies of PPP project benefit adjustment,defines the boundary of PPP project benefit adjustment,and constructs a TOPSIS multi-objective decision-making model of AHP-entropy weight combination weight based on minimum discriminant information principle.Optimizing the multi-scheme set of joint adjustment of concession period,price and subsidy,and then selecting the best scheme which is most suitable for multi-objective decision-making of stakeholders,provides a new idea and method for the benefit adjustment of PPP projects.Finally,the PPP project of Beijing Metro Line 4 is empirically analyzed and applied.The research shows that the system dynamics simulation model based on satisfaction degree can better realize the dynamic simulation and evaluation of all parties' benefit satisfaction degree of urban rail transit PPP project.The multi-objective decision-making model based on AHP-entropy-TOPSIS can better realize the optimization of joint adjustment scheme of concession period-price-subsidy,so as to effectively adjust the satisfaction deviation,make the stakeholder satisfaction tend to be equal and realize the improvement of PPP project cooperation relationship.There are 87 maps,69 tables and 275 references.