Economical Benefits Estimates And Evaluation On Urban Rail Transit

The Urban Rail Transit(URT) is the main force of urban public transportation system, which provides the majority passenger transporting and contributes to alleviating urban traffic congestion and air pollution. China is now in the peak period of URT construction; therefore strengthening the research in the field of URT has economic and practical value. URT project is sweeping, costly, and time-consuming, which makes it to very important to have the reasonable and effective economic measure and evaluation that can effectively avoid the mistakes and waste of resources. As the public project, governments mainly invest the URT projects. Some projects are conducted by the government and private sector cooperation. Consequently, the URT project economic benefits analysis includes both financial benefits and socioeconomic benefits. A comprehensive and rational economic benefits analysis is not only good for the decision-making before a project, but also good for the adjustment during operating. In addition, it is conducive to the harmonious development of all industries in a whole society.In this paper, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic benefits perspectives, based on the characteristics of URT, use the cost-benefit analysis method to estimate economic benefit of URT project reasonably. At the same time, establish an effective index evaluation system and the Projection Pursuit(PP) evaluation model to give a comprehensive evaluation analysis for economic benefit of the URT project. First of all, based on the principle of cost and benefit of recognition, all the costs and benefits of URT project are identified and then classified into different groups. Second, for all kinds of costs and benefits is described and analyzed respectively, establish estimation model of what the passenger flow is main driving factor. Due to passenger flow has a decisive role in the model, establish GM(1,1) prediction model to provide effective data prediction. After that, based on the principles of establishing index and the characteristics of URT, establishing evaluation index system of URT economic benefits. Using PP statistics evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate economic benefits of URT with following the core idea of transforming high dimensional data to low and applying with a little improvement. Finally, in the case application of Beijing subway line 4, collect the basic data and program the GM(1,1) forecast model and PP evaluation model on Matlab software. Based on historical data, calculate the effective predicted data. According to the established model, calculate the estimate data and index value and evaluate of the project. Give the corresponding conclusions and recommendations based on the evaluation results.