Degrees of 'scapegoatability': Assessing spatial variations in collective violence against the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia

Many instrumental expositions of collective violence have examined the role of self--interested ethnic/religious entrepreneurs in inciting riots. The concept of scapegoating is frequently used to explain how opportunistic elites attempt to deflect blame onto vulnerable ethnic minorities, particularly during times of socioeconomic and political upheaval. However, the notion of scapegoating is under-theorized in the conflict literature and the question of why elite scapegoating only sometimes leads to violence is seldom addressed. This dissertation seeks to redress the balance by interrogating spatial variations in violence against the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia (a widely scapegoated group) in the late New Order period of President Suharto. The study argues that elite-orchestrated campaigns of scapegoating succeed only if specific attributes invoked in such campaigns resonate at the local level; violence is more likely when prevailing local conditions amplify the pointed nature of the elite rhetoric. This in turn magnifies the threat perceived by the local community, provides focal point/s for mobilization against the disliked "other" and in turn makes certain Chinese communities more "scapegoatable." Typically, scapegoating of the Chinese entails invoking entrenched stereotypes of the group as non-Moslem, non-native, economically dominant outsiders. Local mechanisms which activate these stereotypes include higher visibility of non-Moslem sites of worship, heightened ethnic competition and ostensible symbols of wealth associated with the Chinese. The study draws on literature from political science, social psychology and ethnic demography, highlights the salience of local cleavages and stresses the interaction between macro- and micro-foundations of violence. Existing research practice often takes the "riot episode" as a single observation. The extent of spatial variations in violence demonstrated in this dissertation cautions against such homogenization and stresses the need to disaggregate the unit of analysis in conflict studies. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach. Three large-N datasets compiled at city, regency and neighborhood levels across Indonesia allow variations in anti-Chinese rioting to be explicated at different spatial aggregations. This is complemented by qualitative material obtained through field surveys and interviews conducted in several cities in Indonesia during six months of fieldwork in 2006 and 2007. Further, the study employs geospatial technology (GIS) to digitally map patterns of violence at various spatial units.