| Manpower is undoubtedly a valuable asset upon which the construction industry depends. However, rapid changes of the economy, working arrangements, and technology in construction advocate reliable estimations of manpower demand to lessen future skills imbalance. The aim of this research is to develop advanced manpower demand forecasting models, at both project and industry levels, to facilitate manpower planning for the construction industry of Hong Kong.; At the project level, statistical models for forecasting the demand of labour demand for a construction project were developed using multiple regression analysis. Results reveal that project cost and project type play an important role in determining the project labour requirements. The forecasting models could serve as practical tools for contractors and government to predict the labour requirements and number of jobs created at an early outset, thus enabling proper human resources planning and budgeting. At the industry level, co-integration analysis was applied to develop a long-term relationship between aggregate construction manpower demand and relevant variables. It was proved that the demand and the associated economic factors including construction output, wage, material price and interest rate are cointegrated. Subsequently, a vector error correction model incorporating short-run dynamics was developed for forecasting purposes. Upon completion of the aggregate model, occupational share manpower demand models were established by means of time series modelling analyses. The construction output and labour productivity were the most significant factors determining the quantity demand of construction manpower. Addressing these two attributes on policy formulation is critical to achieve a sustainable labour market.; This research provides a significant contribution in the area of manpower demand forecasting. The forecasting models developed can benefit the construction industry by providing critical information on the future construction manpower requirements and assist policy makers to formulate training strategies. Apart from this practical use, the research also contributes new knowledge to the area of manpower forecasting and planning. It enriches and updates the understanding of advanced forecasting methodologies for collating construction manpower statistics so as to facilitate manpower planning. The research framework and methodology adopted in this study can provide a solid framework for conducting comparative studies in other Asian countries.; Keywords: Construction industry, forecasting model, Hong Kong, manpower planning, skill requirements. |
