Forecasting Demand And Structure For Manpower In Railway Transportation

The railway transport service of our country has passed by the development courses of more than 50 years and has obtained enormous development in railway construction. Especially since reform and opening-up, the achievement of the railway construction attracts people's attention .But with the gradual promotion to market economy of China' s economic system, The railway transport service is facing a series of new contradictions of the transition from the old system to the new one and some factors become a great obstacle of advancing the reform of railway such as staff and workers ranks are huge and the labor productivity is low and the productivity overall arrangement lagged behind and the management style has been lagged behind etc. In order to solve the match relation between staff and workers ranks and transportation demand in the production process of railway transportation and reduce enterprise's supernumerary and improve the foresight to the demands of staff and workers ranks of enterprise further, Ministry of Railways scientific and technological department assign the subject named the study on railway transportation's manpower resource requirement and structure predict in 2003. Expect through studied, the manpower of current situation in railway transportation can be analyzed and the variation tendencies of the total amount of manpower and structure can be predicted and educating plan and integration of the resources of manpower and the policy of training can be offered to as the reference basis for the railway. This text just emerged under this kind of background. The subject of this text is divided into four major parts First part, analysis of manpower current situation in railway transportation. The content included macroscopically total amount and structure analysis and microcosmic utilizes state analyze. The macroscopic analysis is mainly find the manpower of railway transport service and variation tendency of the total amount through analyze of the historical materials, while micro-analysis is mainly to adopt a method of questionnaire investigation and analyze the state of utilization of resources of manpower through survey situations of railway produce first line working satisfaction of human resources correctly and industrial grade. Purpose of this chapter is analyze manpower of railway transportation whether meet the needs of production and management and whether exists the supernumerary.Second part, forecasting requirement of manpower and total amount of supply in railway transportation. Firstly , using greyly relation and the grey cluster' s method to analyse factors which influenceing human resource and to find out relevant degree the close factor. Secondly, utilizeing greyly model to set up the prediction model of the manpower requirement and predict the total amount of the railway transportation human resources. Finally, Setting up corresponding supply model finally and predicting the total amount of supply about manpower in railway transportation .The third part, the prediction of the manpower structure of railway transportation. At first, the concepts of entropy and fuzzy set and fuzzy entropy will be explained. Secondly , using entropy and fuzzy set and fuzzy entropy to rational distribution in manpower structure and under putting forward the jurisdiction of sure method of degree. Thirdly, on the basis of investigation , academic credentials and industrial grade of manpower demand will be analysed and through corresponding method the above, first line manpower structure of resource requirement in railway transportation will be predicted. Finally, on this basis the structure current situation of the human resources will be carried on scientific appraisal.The last part, implementing the integration of the resources of railway transportation manpower and putting forwarding suggestion of training based on the demand and supply and structure of manpower , This text thinks that the supply of railway transportation manpower in the following several years is greater than the demand and The ensemble architecture and the structure of a section of manpower each stands mainly of the manpower is unreasonable. Propose that the responsible institution of the railway transport service takes and cuts personnel to shunt the method with education and training to combine the manpower.There are certain new meanings in the following research in this text:(1) Using greyly relation and the grey cluster' s method and founding the factor influencing manpower resource requirement. According the factor of correlating with manpower resource requirement to set up the model for predicting the general quantity.(2) On the basis of investigating , used the fuzzy entropy concept and predicted out the structure of producing a gleam of manpower resource requirement of railway transportation.