A theory of international intervention in a secessionist war: A test of the dynamics of secession in South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)

Major secessionist movements are currently ongoing in Russia, Spain, Canada, Nigeria, India, and Sri Lanka, among others, and these movements have had a strong impact on international security. The ongoing secessionist movement in Kashmir, for example, is a major threat to security in South Asia and may eventually bring about international military intervention. Despite the importance of this issue, theories of international relations have not adequately addressed the causal dynamics that bring about military intervention in a secessionist war. Exploring this link raises the following research question: How, when, and why do secessionist movements become secessionist wars and increase the risk of international military intervention?; This study develops a conceptual framework that identifies the conditions that make international military intervention more or less likely. The model presented here consists of generalizations based on hypotheses, which are tested by historical evidence. In other words, patterns of behavior associated with secession have been analyzed in order to build a theory of international military intervention in a secessionist war with a view toward guiding future policy choices. The theory is then tested by an in-depth historical analysis of four case studies of secessionist war drawn from South Asia: East Pakistan (Bangladesh), Sri Lanka, Kashmir, and Punjab.; The findings of the study did identify the conditions that make international military intervention in a secessionist war more or less likely. Broadly, the study suggests that a strong alliance between the secessionists and an external power bring on international military intervention. The findings indicate that a strong alliance is formed when ‘rivalry between the host state and an external power’ and ‘ethnic kinship between the secessionists and an external power’ are both present.