Neorealist claims and post-Cold War realities: The case of German-Polish relations, 1989--1999

For almost 50 years, the Cold War defined the context of German-Polish relations and suppressed any possibility of direct conflict between these two states in the heart of Europe. Amidst the sweeping transformations following the end of the Cold War, the conditions underlying German-Polish relations have undergone significant changes as Germany has unified and Poland has regained its independence from the former Soviet Union. The question that arises is whether or not stable relations can be sustained between Germany and Poland---and states in comparable situations---now that the Cold War international structure has disappeared. Germany has kept its security and economic guarantees of the Cold War era in its institutional memberships in NATO and the European Union (EU) and continues to grow stronger economically and politically. Poland, on the other hand, has only just become a full member of NATO and is not yet a full member of the EU. Further, it must continue to rely heavily on Germany's support to get full membership in the EU, as it did with NATO. In many respects, Poland fulfills the criteria of a "dependent state," as the trade data in Chapter Four indicate. Poland is thus in a weaker position, at least according to the criteria of classical realism and neorealism.; In my dissertation, I argue that despite the allegedly "anarchical" nature of the international arena, the reluctance of many of Germany's institutional allies to welcome Poland into their economic structures, and the disparity of power between them, the prospects for continued stable relations between Germany and Poland remain favorable because of deep-rooted and enduring changes made in German foreign policy in the Cold War era. German foreign policymakers have redefined the acceptable means for the pursuit of German foreign policy goals, redefined the nature of these goals, and placed a greater value for Germany in establishing and maintaining stable, cooperative relations with its neighbors through institutional mechanisms, as in post-World War II Franco-German relations. Having transcended the Cold War, these changes are now deeply entrenched norms of the conduct of foreign relations for Germany.