The transition from high school to work: A longitudinal nonlinear multilevel analysis

Using the High School and Beyond survey, this study employs logistic multilevel models to analyze the effects of pupil and school characteristics on the high school to work transition. Modeling the nested nature of students within schools directly addresses concerns about the proper unit of analysis, including cross level inferences and aggregation issues. Following 1980 Sophomores for six years, this study addresses three questions: one, controlling for differences among school enrollments, are there significant differences in mean student outcomes among schools--in terms of educational attainment, achievement, and, for non-college bound youth, initial labor market success; two, do school characteristics mediate the effects of individual attributes associated with transition path choices, achievement, and initial labor market success; and three, what is the effect of work experience and job training in building human capital along these transition paths? Results indicate that prior research, using single level models attempting to isolate direct school effects on labor market outcomes, generally understate the total effect schools have on the transition to work. Students' transition paths from high school to work significantly affect initial labor market outcomes. Controlling for differences among schools' pupil background characteristics, mean student outcomes vary significantly between schools. A school's influence is most substantial in early transition stages. Sector and whether a school has a career placement center have the most notable results. Students attending religious schools fare more favorably than students attending secular schools on several of the outcomes analyzed. Career placement centers tend to exacerbate individual risk factors associated with dropping out and generate no benefits to high school graduates in easing the transition from school to work. The effects of students working during school and job training play a significant role throughout the transition process. Work intensity increases the probability of dropping out of high school, decreases achievement, but increases initial labor market success. Extensive job training of students increases the probability of dropping out, yet increases the probability of returning to school, and increases initial labor market outcomes. For high school dropouts, extensive job training mitigates the negative consequences associated with lower educational attainment.