A STUDY OF THE USE OF SYSTEM SIMULATION FOR SYMPHONY ORCHESTRA TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Since 1965, major shifts in the patterns of support for symphony orchestras and other performing arts organizations have occurred. The new factor was government funding from federal and state sources. This study addressed the need for developing a methodology whereby trends inherent in the histories of key arts system variables could be used as the basis for estimating future states and probabilities.;Eight years of data were used to develop the model. Data were accumulated and subsequently reorganized in the income sector to provide information by funding source. A graphic model (flow-chart) was developed to identify major sectors, components, variables and functional relationships. The simulation model was developed as a two-sector input-output model in that projections were generated separately for income and expenses before being combined to determine the need for contributions.;Following the identification of key system variables and parameters, the operating characteristics of the mathematical model were presented. Linear regression was the primary statistical tool used for forecasting predictor variables. During model verification, congruence measures (Theil's U statistic) between actual and simulated time series fell well within the .10 level initially established as the criterion for acceptable model performance.;The model was designed to be hierarchical in nature in order that key variables could be broken down into subcomponents to better account for system behavior. Both sensitivity analysis and Theil's U were utilized to ascertain the effect of alternative approaches on the model. Finally, two experiments were conducted with the model. The first experiment resulted in the projection of high levels of Government Income which should be given cautious consideration since income from this source is leveling off. In the second experiment, the same conditions prevailed except that Ticket Income was projected to increase and Government Income to remain the same. Significant increases in the need for contributions was projected for each experiment.;The purpose of the study was to develop a deterministic and dynamic input-output model of a symphony orchestra which could provide reliable forecasts of key variables over time. Objectives of the study were to: (1) establish boundaries of the system and subsystems; (2) identify important system variables and functional relationships; (3) develop an input-output simulation model; (4) validate the model; (5) verify the model; (6) determine the efficacy of the model as a planning tool.;Principal conclusions that were based on the findings of the study: (1) It is possible to develop a valid deterministic input-output model of a symphony orchestra with significant potential for forecasting (predictive power and enhanced insight). (2) When time is a key parameter of the system, it is important to consider time in both weekly and annual cycles in order to isolate causes of variable fluctuations. (3) A model can be developed that accurately forecasts future values without being unnecessarily complex.