| Scope and Method of Study. This is a study of migration in Oklahoma. An attempt is made to identify the main determinants of short-distance migration in Oklahoma during the time period 1971-1973. It is hypothesized that migration, in turn, is a determinant of the labor market situation in any region. Therefore, migration and employment change are mutually interdependent. A three-equation model consisting of an in-migration equation, an out-migration equation, and an employment change equation is built, and the three equations are estimated simultaneously using both ordinary least squares and two-stage least-squares techniques. The two main sources of data are the 1970 Population Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis Migration Data.;Findings and Conclusions. The results of the empirical analysis show that in-migration, out-migration and change in basic employment are all significant determinants of employment change. However, contrary to expectation, the basic employment multiplier is found to be not significantly greater than one. It is concluded that this is probably because the length of time-lag between an initial change in basic employment and the final change in total employment is greater than 2-3 years. In-migration is found to be directly related to employment change with a multiplier significantly greater than one. Out-migration is inversely related to employment change, again with a multiplier significantly greater than one. In-migration is significantly and positively influenced by population size, employment change and regional per capita income. Out-migration is found to be directly related to population size and net entrants into the labor force, both of which emerge as highly significant in the empirical analysis. Age is significant, but is directly related to out-migration instead of inversely, contrary to the findings of other researchers. This is thought to be the effect of the relatively short-distance migration being studied. Employment change is found to be just significant and inversely related to out-migration, as expected. Some interesting policy conclusions emerge from the study especially for the policymaker concerned with the problem of lagging regions. One implication follows from the magnitude of the in- and out-migration coefficients in the employment change equation. Since their absolute value is significantly greater than one, the conclusion is that the ultimate effect on employment change of in- or out-migration is a multiple of the initial migration. This, in turn, has important implications for changes in capital investment in the gaining and losing regions. Another implication is that there is considerable leakage in the tickle-down of newly created jobs to the local disadvantaged. A third implication is that pull factors are more important in explaining in-migration than push factors are in explaining out-migration. |
