Research On Risk Patter Recognition And Early-warning Of Gas Explosion Disaster In Coal Mine

Abstract:Coal mining is the most dangerous industries in China, especially, the gas explosion disasters in coal mines, with its significant characteristics of strong destructive, big economic loss and most casualties and others, have caused serious hazard to safety production. For the weak links existing in the gas explosion disaster prevention and control through theoretical research, numerical analysis, field observation, computer application and relevant theories about safety science, system science, risk management science, information science, computer science and engineering and mine safety, gas explosion disaster risk identification and early warning system are researched in this article, which is of great importance to the implementation of early risk recognition and accident prevention in advance in the coal mine safety production system, the improvement of the coal mine intrinsically safe level, and the promotion of the sustainable development in coal mine safety.(1) In view of the imperfection of the theory and methods on coal mine gas explosion disasters pre-control management, the establishment of gas explosion hazard identification and disaster pre-control countermeasure system are put forward from the integration perspective including risk identification, monitoring, classification, evaluation, prediction, early warning, and countermeasures.(2) After statistical analysis on a large number of gas disaster accidents, the gas accident characteristics and statistical rule and fractal characteristics are obtained. As for the core problem of gas emission and accumulation, and the generation of spark origin in gas explosion disasters, the classification of typical characteristics such as gas emission and accumulation, spark origin, accident site are studied. The gas explosion characteristics and coupling rule are obtained and relevant effective suggestions and measures are put forward for decreasing gas explosion accident through a lot of gas explosion accident analysis.(3) The risk management theory, technology and methods are systematically discussed, and the risk management theory is introduced into the accident prevention and control of gas explosion disasters in coal mine. The gas explosion accident causal chain and risk analysis model are established; the gas explosion disaster risk identification and early warning system framework are built, and the content and procedure of this system are systematically discussed as well.(4) In view of the diversity and complexity of gas explosion hazard risk source and the diversity and complexity of information monitoring source in coal mine, the risk information sources are classified. The risk identification and early warning information platform architecture are established, including information gathering, multi-source information coupling, disaster risk assessment and early warning, control counter measures and response based on multi-source information coupling.(5) Based on the characteristics of non-leaner dynamics in coal mine safety production system, the risk factors of gas explosion disaster in coal mines are systematically identified, the production system are divided into some logic units, and a perfect hierarchy risk index system and risk classification system are established for risk assessment and early warning of gas explosion disaster. The interval linearization method is proposed to improve the index information of dimensionless method. The key risk identification and early-warning index "one vote veto" independent index system of the variable weight evaluation and early warning mechanism are also put forward.(6) The pattern recognition theory, method and technology are introduced into the gas explosion disaster risk management in coal mine; the fundamentals, the content, the technology and the methods of gas explosion risk pattern recognition are studied systematically; gas explosion risk pattern recognition are established; the single index piecewise efficacy function is proposed for improving efficacy function method(EMC); the risk pattern recognition model is established for gas explosion disaster based on IAHP-ECM; and at the same time, the other two risk pattern recognition models are established based on the DTW (dynamic time warping) template matching technology, and small sample learning SVM theory and PSO. Besides, all the models mentioned above are tested in application.(7) The fundamentals and process, the content and technology of risk prediction are studied systematically; the basic mathematics models of prediction are established for individual risk prediction and comprehensive risk prediction of gas explosion disaster in coal mines; the gas emission prediction models such as GM(1,1), residual error GM(1,1), equal-dimension metabolism GM(1,1), the AR(p) model and the combination forecast model by combining SVM are established. All these prediction models are anplied and pass performance test. (8) The process, the content, the grade and the threshold setting of early warning system for gas explosion in coal mines are studied systematically. It is also put forward that the observation value of risk factors and the time gradient of risk level are important parts of the early warning system. The transfinite alarm mechanism and technical of gas concentration are researched. The early warning model of gas concentration based on Elman and the comprehensive risk early warning model of gas explosion disaster based on PNN are established, and all the models mentioned above have been tested and applied respectively.In view of weak links of risk pre-control of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine, with funding from the project5127410of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the risk identification and the application of early warning system of gas explosion in coal mines are studied by using multidisciplinary theories in this research, which will be very valuable both in academic development and potential application.