The Impacts Of Energy And Environmental Fiscal And Tax Policies

Economic development,energy structure optimization and carbon emission control are important strategic tasks in the 13th Five-Year Plan and the medium and long term in China.The fiscal and taxation policies of energy and environment are extremely important to achieve the relevant planning objectives.In order to make more scientific and reasonable the energy and environment fiscal and taxation policies,it is necessary to study the effects and synergy mechanism of energy and environment fiscal and taxation policies.So this paper analysis the theory and practice of energy and environmental fiscal and tax subsidies policies,the theory and practice of carbon tax policy and the research status and dynamics of related fields.Then this paper construct a computable general equilibrium model,and to analysis the impacts of the energy and environmental fiscal and tax policies in China based onthe computable general equilibrium model theory,input-output theory and social accounting matrix theory.This paper constructs the database of the model,and completes the modle programming based on GAMS language.Through the static and dynamic models,we comprehensively evaluates the impacts of energy and environmental fiscal and tax policies on China's Energy-Economy-Environment variables,On the one hand,the paper expands the development and application of CGE model in China;on the other hand,it realizes the comprehensive evaluation of impact of of energy and environmental fiscal and tax policies,and provides a reference value for the decision-making of the government.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)In the static model,the impacts of the single oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy,wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy,and carbon tax policy are as follows.Under six single policy scenarios,the total demand for primary energy will decrease,the demand for classified primary energy will vary depending on the different subsidies and carbon tax policies,and the substitution utility of energy.The implementation of oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy will increase the total power generation and five type's powers generation.However,the implementation of wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy and carbon tax policy will reduce the total power generation.Variations of the different electricity generation depend on the substitution effect of electricities and the direct target of policy.The implementation of oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy will reduce real GDP,but only by a small margin,and increase nominal GDP.The implementation of wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy and carbon tax policy will raise real GDP slightly and raise nominal GDP.The single policy increases the output of some sectors and decreases the output of others.The influence effects increase with the policy strength,but the overall effect is light.(2)In the static model,the paper comprehensive the impacts of the combination of oil and natural gas subsidies reduction,wind and solar power subsidies reduction,and carbon tax.Due to the differences of the direct and indirect targets and potency dimension of different policies,as well as the effects of different policies on each other,the changes of related variables will be more complicated than that of single policy.Generally,even the combination of policies will reduce the total energy consumption,the real GDP,and the intensity of energy consumption,the nominal GDP will rise.Total power generation and classified povrer generation,sector outputs,carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity change more complex.Because of the lack of time accumulation in the static model,the effects of relevant policies is small.(3)Under the dynamic model benchmark scenario.China's economy can achieve medium and high-speed growth in 2012-2030,and the industrial structure obviously optimized.By 2030 China's GDP will reach 152.63 trillion CHY,and the proportion of primary industry will drop,the proportion of tertiary industry will rise.By 2030 China's total energy consumption will reach 5.934 billion tons tee.The energy consumption structures will significantly optimized,the proportion of coal will drop,the proportion of natural gas will rise,and the proportion of primary power and other energy also will rise.By 2030 China will generate 829 million kWh of electricity.The power generation structures significantly will be optimized,wherein the proportion of thermal power will drop,wind power,solar power and other power will notably rise.The forecast results of energy consumption and structure.power generation and structure are in line with Energy Production and Consumption Revolutionary Strategy(2016-2030),as well as the planning objectives of the 13th five-year plan for energy,electricity and different types of electricity.In 2030,China's energy intensity is in line with Energy Production and Consumption Revolutionary Strategy(2016-2030)and Enhancing Action on Climate Change:China's National Independent Contribution.(4)Under the dynamic model,the effects of the single oil and natural gas energy subsidies reduction policy,wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy and carbon tax policy are as follows.Generally,the implementation of oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy,as well as the wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy can achieve the control target total energy consumption of Energy Production and Consumption Revolutionary Strategy(2016-2030)in 2030.However,in term of the proportion structure of primary energy consumption,some indicators will not be able to achieve the strategic objectives of the energy revolution because of the different policy direction and strength.The carbon tax policy can achieve the control target of Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy(2016-2030)in 2030 in terms of controlling total energy consumption and structure.The implementation of oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy will increase the total power generation,and optimize the power production structure.The implementation of wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy will reduce the total power generation,while wind power and solar power will also significantly reduced.The policyis is not conducive to optimizing the power generation structure.The carbon tax policy will lead to an increase in total power generation and a more optimized power generation structure.At the same time,the impacts of each policy depends on the intensity of the policy implementation.With the implementation of the oil and natural gas subsidies reduction policy,the energy consumption intensity,total carbon emissions and intensity will reduced.Implementing wind power and solar power subsidies reduction policy will lead to a decrease in energy consumption intensity,but the total carbon emissions and intensity will rise.The carbon tax policy will lead to the reduction of energy consumption intensity,total carbon emissions and intensity.At the same time,the influence degree of each policy also depends on the policyi mplementation intensity.(5)Under the dynamic model,the impacts of the policy combination are as follows.Due to the action direction of different policies,the intensity of different policies,the total energy consumption will decreases under three different policy combination scenarios.However,the proportion of each primary energy presents different changes,and some variables are difficult to achieve the control target of Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy(2016-2030)in 2030.Under the three types of policy combination scenarios,the impacts on the total power production and power structure are also complicated.Under the three types of policy combination scenarios,the intensity of energy consumption will declined,while the total amount of carbon emissions and intensity changes are complicated.Therefore,the goveroment should choose relevant policies according to targets of the total energy consumption and structure,power generation and structure,the total carbon emissions and intensity,as well as the direction and intensity of different policies.