| Climate change is one of the most serious environmental challenges of the world today,and the increase amount of carbon emissions is an important factor in global warming.Because of its dual carbon,carbon sink dual characteristics,agriculture become the academic community hope to alleviate the key areas of climate change.China is a big country of carbon emissions,but also a traditional agricultural power,agricultural carbon emissions naturally become the focus of attention,the national "thirteen five" plan and the party's 18 th report attach great importance to agricultural carbon emissions.It is necessary to change the development mechanism of low-carbon agriculture in a comprehensive,objective and systematic way to change the agricultural economic performance appraisal mechanism under the background of vigorously promoting the development process of low-carbon agriculture and changing the way of agricultural economic growth.However,at present,what stage is China's low-carbon agriculture development process at? What is the level of performance of low-carbon agriculture development? What is the gap between the performance appraisal mechanism of the traditional agricultural economic performance appraisal mechanism and the low-carbon agriculture development performance appraisal mechanism considering the environment? What is the reason for restricting farmers' low-carbon production performance is low? What is the reason for the regional differences in the performance level of China's low-carbon agriculture development? Does it can change the production performance appraisal mechanism to encourage broad farmers to participate in low-carbon production behavior in order to improve low-carbon production performance? What are the effects of low-carbon restraints and policy incentives on low-carbon agricultural development performance?Which one is relatively more effective? How much is the economic costs to reduce the agricultural carbon emissions? The answers to these questions is key link to promote the agricultural carbon reduction policies and develop the low-carbon agriculture effectively.Based on the environmental factors such as agricultural carbon sequestration and agricultural carbon absorption are introduced into the framework of traditional economic performance accounting analysis,we takes the ?performance evaluation ? cost accounting ? policy design? as the main logical line of the whole text.First of all,it briefly introduces the domestic and foreign background of research topics,systematically combs the domestic and international research frontiers and related theoretical frameworks and foundations of this research field,and reveals the existing problems from the analysis of the development of low-carbon agriculture in China.Secondly,in view of the economic performance of agriculture,taking into account the ecological and environmental factors such as agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon sequestration,on the one hand,from the micro perspective,the SBM model is used to estimate the low-carbon production performance of farmers,This paper uses the PSM method to estimate the effect of low carbon participation on the performance of low-carbon production.On the other hand,from the macro perspective,this paper analyzes the low-carbon production performance of low-Based on the GML index method,the performance level of low-carbon agriculture development in different provinces and provinces was established,and the spatial panel SLM model was established to analyze the spatial correlation effect of low-carbon agriculture development.At the same time,the threshold plate model was used to explore impact on low-carbon agricultural performance level.On the basis of this,the author introduces the idea of shadow price in economics to estimate the marginal emission reduction cost of agricultural carbon emission,and discusses the path selection and promotion of low carbon from the aspects of administrative measures,financial means and market regulation.Agricultural development process of policy protection measures in order to the relevant government departments in the policy formulation to provide scientific basis and theoretical support.The research contents mainly include the following three parts: the first part is the theoretical basis and the status analysis(Chapters 1,2,3);the second part is low-carbon agriculture performance level measurement: from both micro and macro perspectives respectively(Chapters 4,5,6);the third part is the abatement cost accounting and the policy design of agricultural carbon reduction(Chapters 7,8,9).Through systematic research,the following basic conclusions are formed:(1)From the micro perspective,the farmers' low-carbon production performance is at a low level,and the redundancy rates of capital factor investment and carbon emission output are the main reason leading to low performance.Farmers' low-carbon behaviors such as participation in agricultural clean production projects show significant positive effects on low-carbon production performance.This paper uses the SBM model to measure the performance of low-carbon production of farmers,examines the ineffective factors of inefficient decision-making units and the effect of low-carbon participation on their low-carbon production performance.The results show that:(1)the performance level of low-carbon production of farmers is low,and the low-carbon production performance of farmers is low,and the low-carbon production performance of farmers is low,The average value of 0.4900;the difference between the sample is large,about 58.63% of the sample farmers low carbon production performance value below 0.5,only 14.92% of farmers low carbon production performance value is greater than 0.7,most farmers performance value between 0.3Compared with the optimal decision-making unit,the excessive consumption of resources and the high yield of agricultural carbon emissions are the important reasons for the low performance of low-carbon production of farmers.Among them,the capital investment redundancy rate is the highest,-6.37%,Followed by labor and land investment.(2)Through the comparison between the traditional production performance and the low-carbon production performance,it is found that the low-carbon production performance score(0.4900)is smaller than the traditional production performance score(0.5078),indicating that the environmental constraint factors of carbon abstraction Farmers' Production Performance Level.(3)Farmer's low-carbon behavior has a significant positive effect on its low-carbon production performance.Among them,farmers participating in agricultural cleaner production projects are 9.90% higher than those who do not participate in agricultural cleaner production projects.(2)From the macro perspective,China's low-carbon agricultural development performance is generally slow,mainly depends on both the scale of technological progress and pure technical efficiency.There is a certain spatial agglomeration effect of the development level of low-carbon agriculture among the adjacent provinces.With the help of low-carbon agricultural performance GML index and its decomposition index,the performance level of China's low-carbon agriculture development is evaluated from the dynamic point of view.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China's low-carbon agriculture development performance is generally slow,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.49%,Which mainly relied on the double driving effect of cutting-edge technological progress and technical efficiency improvement.In the further decomposition index,the average annual contribution rate of technological progress and pure technical efficiency was 0.59% and 0.37% respectively.Through traditional agricultural production(1.0049)is lower than the traditional agricultural performance index(1.0078),but its annual growth rate(0.51%)is higher than the average annual growth rate of traditional agricultural production performance(0.23),and the low-carbon agricultural performance index(1.0049)%).(2)From the standpoint of spatial measurement,the performance level of low-carbon agriculture in China shows a significant spatial correlation relationship.At the same time,the distribution of low-carbon agricultural performance in each province shows a clear spatial block structure.Geographical factors are of low-carbon development performance has a significant positive impact;There is a spatial dependence of low-carbon agriculture performance level between neighboring regions.(3)There are significant positive correlations between the degree of opening to the outside world and the level of performance of low-carbon agriculture development.Further promotion of foreign trade will help to improve the performance level of low-carbon agriculture in China and realize the win-win of agricultural economy and low-carbon development.Income level,urban-rural income gap,agricultural financial support policy and agricultural production are all significantly negative correlation with low-carbon agriculture performance level.(3)There is a significant non-linear relationship between the low-carbon regulatory measures and the low-carbon agricultural performance.The impacts of the means of increasing carbon sinks,the policy of financial support and agricultural subsidy policy on the low-carbon agricultural performance show the "threshold effect".The effect of low-carbon restraint and low-carbon stimulation on the performance of low-carbon agriculture development is simulated by using the threshold panel model.It is found that:(1)Emission intensity constraint can effectively promote the performance of low-carbon agriculture development,but it does not mean that the emission intensity The effect of increasing sinks on the performance of low-carbon agriculture is significant when the intensity of agricultural carbon emission is greater than the threshold value of0.4970,which is based on the "single threshold effect" of carbon emission intensity constraints.(2)The "single threshold effect" based on the carbon intensity constraint is significant in the low-carbon promotion effect of the fiscal support agriculture policy.When the agricultural carbon emission intensity is higher than the threshold value of1.7344,the financial support agriculture policy has a significant negative impact on the performance of low-carbon agriculture;The low-carbon effect of the agricultural subsidy policy has a "double threshold effect" based on the emission intensity constraint.When the agricultural carbon intensity is between 0.4554 and 1.7344,the incentive intensity of the subsidy policy increases to the average of the low-carbon agriculture performance Marginal effect is greatest.(3)It is not recommend the use of any one of the constraints or incentives,we should take the emission intensity as the main constraints while avoiding excessive reliance on emission intensity constraints,and appropriate to give up the financial support for agriculture policy incentives.It is better to use the combination of various ways of the constraints and agricultural subsidies and other incentives.Choose different low-carbon agriculture development paths,say unilateral breakthrough type,avoid weaknesses progressive type and short-term savings of the leap-forward type according to different regional development characteristics.(4)The shadow price estimated of China's agricultural carbon emissions is between 6.62 to 551.05 Yuan per ton,the average value is 67.71 Yuan per ton(equal10.19 US dollars per ton).Carbon reduction action will result in a certain efficiency loss in resource allocation of the agricultural sector,but the loss part is getting smaller and smaller.Using the shadow price method to estimate the marginal cost of agricultural carbon emissions in 31 provinces(cities,districts)in China from 1993 to 2015.The results show that:(1)the estimated price of agricultural carbon emissions is between 6.62-551.05 Yuan per ton,and the average price of agricultural carbon emission in 31 provinces(cities,districts)is estimated by the shadow price method.Value of 67.71 Yuan per ton(contract10.19 US dollars per ton),and the marginal cost of agricultural carbon emissions in different provinces and regions in the larger differences,if the implementation of carbon emission reduction will result in the agricultural sector resource allocation there is a certain efficiency loss.(2)From the point of view of the nuclear density curve of the carbon price of agricultural carbon emission,the peak value of the shadow price nuclear density curve increases obviously over time,indicating that the regional distribution of agricultural carbon emission reduction costs becomes more and more concentrated with time,The regional differences in emission reductions show a narrow trend in the sample survey period,indicating that the loss of efficiency in the agricultural sector resource allocation due to the low carbon constraints is getting smaller and smaller.(3)Planting structure is one of the important factors that lead to regional differences in agricultural carbon reduction costs.The decrease in the proportion of rice production by 1 percentage point will result in an increase of about 0.31 percentage points in the cost of agricultural carbon reductions,indicating that the higher the proportion of rice production in food production,the higher the economic cost to achieve agricultural carbon reduction targets Low,because the main rice producing areas of the more difficult to reduce emissions,you can adjust and optimize the crop planting structure to achieve effective reduction of agricultural carbon emission reduction costs.(5)China's agricultural emission reduction mechanism design should be based on the construction of agricultural carbon emission reduction regional responsibility sharing mechanism,taking into account the low carbon constraints of agricultural subsidies system innovation,promoting the development of agricultural carbon trading market,while improving safety precautions of the development of low-carbon agriculture.Through the analysis of foreign low-carbon agriculture development experience,it is found that the advanced agricultural technology and management mode of developed countries is the key to the development of low-carbon agriculture,and developing countries to develop low-carbon agriculture pay more attention from its own industrial advantages and characteristics.On the basis of summarizing the inspiration of low carbon agriculture development experience in China,combining with the basic conclusion of this study,we put forward the basic idea of policy system as "a main goal,two major considerations,four key points,three support systems,four safeguard measures".It is suggested that the construction of China's agricultural carbon emission reduction policy system should proceed from the aspects of regional responsibility sharing,financial subsidy system and carbon trading market.(1)Agricultural carbon emission reduction regional responsibility sharing mechanism,follow the principle of "common but differentiated",hastily engage in "one size fits all",respectively,pointed out that the eastern and central emission reduction policy direction.(2)consider the development of low-carbon agriculture agricultural subsidies system innovation,including the establishment of a sound low-carbon subsidy system for agricultural production and low-carbon subsidy system for agricultural consumption,and increased subsidies for biomass energy.(3)To promote the development of agricultural carbon trading market,we need to improve the basis and conditions of agricultural carbon trading market To realize the effective combination of agricultural carbon trade and rural poverty alleviation.(4)The other policy measures to promote the development of China's low-carbon agriculture including the following aspects: First,the introduction of low-carbon agriculture strategic planning,promote low-carbon agriculture legislation process;the second is to highlight the role of low-carbon technology support,innovation and technology extension services;Industrial structure,improve the level of low-carbon agriculture organization;Fourth,to promote the balanced development of inter-industry emission reduction policies to guide the people to participate in emission reduction practice.Possible innovations in this study are now in the following areas:(1)In order to avoid the overcapacity of agricultural carbon emission,the performance level of China's low-carbon agriculture production is overestimated.In this paper,when measuring the output of non-expected output,Carbon emissions from agricultural production material inputs,greenhouse gas emissions from crop growth processes,and carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide emissions from crop straw burning.(2)This study focuses on the low-carbon production of the planting industry,and selects the input-output indicators to adopt the narrow statistical agricultural caliber to study its low-carbon production performance and reveal the spatial agglomeration effect of China's low-carbon agriculture development performance.The proposed emission reduction policy should take into account industrial differences and geographical factors.(3)This study not only explores the performance of low-carbon agriculture development from the macro perspective,but also quantitatively analyzes and evaluates the performance level of low-carbon production performance of farmers,and analyzes the performance of China's agricultural development and farmer's performance And low carbon measurement method under the comparative analysis.(4)On the basis of measuring the performance of low-carbon production,it is estimated that the participation of low-carbon emission reduction projects on the performance of low-carbon production performance.While testing the effectiveness of low-carbon regulatory means,we found that there is a constraint based on emission intensity "threshold effect" between low-carbon constraints and incentives to improve the performance of low-carbon agriculture development.(5)Based on the theory of shadow price in economics,this paper puts forward the policy system to promote the development of China's low-carbon agriculture from the aspects of regional administrative measures,financial subsidy and market regulation. |
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