Study On The Influence And Optimization Of Coal Consumption Structure Change On Carbon Intensity In China

Energy structure is divided into production structure and consumption structure,and the proportion of various energy consumption to total consumption is called energy consumption structure.The energy consumption structure of a country is determined by resources,economy and development.Due to the rich coal resources,mature mining technology,safe and reliable use,and relatively low price,China's energy consumption structure has long been dominated by coal.However,this energy consumption mode directly leads to the increase of carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions and serious environmental pollution.It can be seen that optimizing the energy structure is the general trend.At the same time,nuclear energy,hydropower and other clean energy are difficult to popularize in various fields of social production in a short period of time.The relationship between industry and energy is close and complex.Therefore,the industrial structure and energy structure of coal consumption should be adjusted to control carbon dioxide emissions.Based on the characteristics of industrial structure,energy structure and carbon intensity change of coal consumption in China,this paper analyzes the internal relationship between the change of coal consumption structure and carbon intensity,explores the impact of coal consumption structure optimization on the carbon intensity target in the 13th five year plan,and clarifies the direction and direction of low carbon optimization of coal consumption structure in China at this stage according to the low carbon evaluation results of coal consumption structure The path is to simulate the optimization of coal consumption structure in China,and provide quantitative reference for the optimization of coal consumption structure.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)An improved Kaya model is proposed.The decomposition model of carbon intensity factors is constructed from the perspective of "industry energy" in combination with Kaya identity.Research and analysis show that the proportion of coal consumption and other clean energy consumption are the main factors affecting the change of carbon intensity.China should focus on optimizing and adjusting the coal consumption structure,making the coal consumption structure tend to be reasonable,and then reducing the total energy consumption to achieve the carbon intensity goal.(2)A sensitivity model of carbon strength target is proposed.According to the decomposition process of carbon.intensity factors,the target sensitivity model and sensitivity matrix of carbon intensity are established.Through the model establishment and analysis,the coal consumption in China will be reduced by 1%in 2020,which will be completely replaced by oil,natural gas and other clean energy,and the carbon intensity will be reduced by 0.1671%,0.297%and 0.7476%respectively.(3)The evaluation index system of low carbon level of coal consumption structure is established.This paper explores the low-carbon level of China's coal consumption structure in 2006-2017 by using the optimal combination weighting.Through evaluation and analysis,China's current low-carbon level is gradually improving,and the two curves of low-carbon output and lowcarbon consumption are on the rise,but the rising trend of low-carbon emission curve is not obvious.(4)The low-carbon optimization model of coal consumption structure is constructed.Build a low-carbon optimization model of coal consumption structure,and optimize the coal consumption structure in 2020.According to the optimization results,the optimal energy intensity scheme can successfully achieve the "13th five year plan" of energy conservation and emission reduction,and the sustainable development goal of economic growth.