A Study On The Characteristics Of Chinese Carbon Emission And Its Evolutionary Based On Structural Change

Starting from the connotative definition of structural change, this thesisinvestigates the mechanism of the structural change promoter action to the carbonemission on the basis of the present research on carbon emission. On the foundation,indicator system is set up and the change characteristic of carbon emission is studiedby the econometric model. And then, the evolutionary characteristic of Chinesecarbon emission is studied by SD model. At the end of this paper, constructiveproposal how to reduce the carbon emission is put forward through the scene analysis.The thesis consists of four parts as follows.First of all, the connotative definition of structural change is defined. On thisbasis, in order to reveal the drive mechanism of carbon emission from them,systematic analysis on evolutionary theory of industrial structure and energyconsumption structure is done preparing for the construction of SD model of Chinesecarbon emission.Secondly, the diversified coefficient of industrial structure and energyconsumption structure and the carbon emissions are constructed. Based on that, therelationship between structural change and carbon emission is analyzed by theeconometric model. And then, a decomposition model of carbon emission per capitafor China is set up. The model is adopted to analyze the influence factors of carbonemission per capita. The following conclusions are obtained. First, China’s carbonemission evolution has a phase characteristic, and it has a certain degree ofconsistency with the characteristics of the demand and supply of carbon emission.Second, the development of China’s industrial structure is industrialization-orientated,and this feature promotes the sudden rise of carbon emission. Third, the developmentof China’s economy is largest to carbon emission contribution. And the energyconsumption structure and energy efficiency are the restrain factors of China’s carbonemission.Third, the SD model of structural change and carbon emission evolution is set up,and the model is adopted to analyze China’s carbon emission evolutionarycharacteristics. And then, the scene analysis is done. The following conclusions areobtained. In the next ten years, the growth of China’s carbon emission will slow down,and the growth rate of per capita carbon emission will also slow down. Finally, aiming at the currently growth characteristics of China’s carbonemission, advice including adjusting the industrial structure, improving the energyconsumption structure and energy efficiency, strengthening macro-control, is given toimprove the continuing to rise situation of China’s carbon emission.