Research On The Impact Of Industrial Restructuring On China's Carbon Intensity Target

At the Copenhagen World Climate Conference,China has announced its own contribution of national energy-saving emission reduction to the world for the first time:China's carbon emissions intensity will be reduced by forty percent to forty-five percent in 2005 compared to 2020,and this binding indicator is incorporated into the blueprint for national medium-term and long-term development strategies.At present,China is in the pain period of industrial structure optimization and upgrading,ensuring rapid economic development is a key part of building a well-off society in an all-round way.Therefore,this paper,with analytical perspective of industrial structure adjustment,explores the possibility of achieving China's carbon intensity targets under the premise of maintaining sustained economic growth by 2020,which will hava reference significance of socio-economic system and ecological resources system's harmony and stability.On the basis of summarizing the research of predecessors' research,this paper uses the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to explore the relationship among gross domestic product,industrial structure and total carbon dioxide emissions with the appropriate mathematical model and analysis tools,and predicts the possibility and contribution level of achieving the target of carbon emission intensity in 2020 through the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.We has done the following three aspects of the work: Firstly,we use the component data prediction model and ARIMA time series model to predict the proportion of China's industrial structure in 2020,and construct two scenarios of the industrial structure.At the same time,we take into account the various possibilities of economic development rate accord to the national development goals,and build the four scenarios of economic growth.Ultimately,we get eight cross-combination scenarios.Secondly,based on the calculation of the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions from 1978 to 2014,we use the unit root test and cointegration regression method to quantitatively obtain long-term intrinsic equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and the industrial structure,and forecast the total amount of carbon emissions under the eight cross-portfolio scenarios in 2020.Finally,the total amount of CO2 emissions and GDP are calculated respectively to predict the carbon emission intensity and the contribution rate of China's carbon emission intensity targets through the industrial structure adjustment under the eight cross-combinatorial scenarios in2020.The analysis shows that the rapid economic development has produced animportant pulling effect on carbon emissions.Before China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001,carbon emissions grew slowly with economic growth..Since 2002,carbon emissions increased significantly,the expansion of the total economic output has a positive effect on the increase in carbon emissions,but results in a significant decline in carbon emission intensity.The "optimal adjustment" of the industry has played a certain inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;the increasing proportion of tertiary industry will bring the decline in carbon emissions,but also lead to a significant decline in carbon emission intensity.under the basic adjustment of the industrial structure,the carbon emission intensity in the four economic growth scenarios have failed to achieve the diminishing rate of carbon intensity targets in2020.Instead,under the optimal adjustment of the industrial structure,the carbon emission intensity in the four economic growth scenarios have successed to achieve the diminishing rate of carbon intensity targets in 2020.It can be seen that the rapid growth of economy and optimal adjustment of the industrial structure have a significant effect on achieving the target of carbon intensity and have the highest contribution rate to achieving the target of carbon intensity in 2020.Therefore,correct understanding of the impact on carbon intensity targets between economic growth and industrial restructuring has a certain guiding significance for creating a "two-oriented" society and industrial structure transformation during the period of 13 th Five-Year.