Global Background And Evolution Trend Of GHG Emissions From Food Consumption In China

The evolution of food consumption is the main feature of human civilization.In the past 50 years,with the rapid development of economy and society,global food consumption has been in a critical transition period.The consumption of animal-based food such as meat,milk and eggs continued to grow,the consumption of staple food was changing to a diversified structure,and the traditional food structure was shifting to a dietary pattern with high meat,high sugar and high fat intake.Since the reform and opening up,the rapid improvement of residents' income and urbanization has driven great changes in residents' food consumption.The dietary pattern had a trend of changing from the mode dominated by plant-based food to the western mode dominated by animal-based food.The increase of animal-based food with high carbon footprint in the diets directly led to the growth of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.At the same time,it also brought the pressure related to resources,environment and health.Therefore,revealing the changing characteristic of food consumption,exploring the changing trend of food GHG emissions,and predicting the growth potential of food consumption and GHG are conducive to know the stage of China's food consumption and GHG emissions,orderly guide residents to optimize dietary structure,reduce the pressure on resources and environment caused by food consumption,and help achieve the goal of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.Based on the above research needs,this paper firstly studied the changing characteristics of food consumption in different continents,countries with different development levels,and typical dietary patterns,and summarized the changing law of food consumption with the growth of per capita GDP.The study found that with the improvement of the economic development,food consumption and various nutrient intakes experienced development stages of "accelerating growth-decelerating growth-stabilizing",and then enter a plateau period of no longer growing.The food consumption of different regions will be different when they enter the plateau period,and the per capita GDP level will also be different when they reach the plateau period.With the improvement of the economic development,the proportion of animal-based food consumption is generally higher.On the basis of changes of food consumption,this paper further analyzed the per capita food GHG emissions,and total food GHG emissions.The results showed that with the growth of food consumption and changes in food structure,the per capita food GHG in the world,Africa,Asia and South America had increased rapidly,while Europe,North America and Oceania had no longer increased.Most countries had not yet reached the peak of per capita food GHG.The growth of total global food GHG was mainly driven by population growth,followed by changes in food consumption structure and the growth of per capita food consumption.The total food GHG in most countries and regions had not yet reached their peak in 2018.Under the global background,the historical trend characteristics of China's food consumption were analyzed,and the development stage and future trend of China's food consumption were judged based on the S model.After experiencing a substantial increase in food consumption and a huge change in the structure,China is now approaching a plateau,and there would be a small growth in the future.Although China's food consumption tended to shift to the Western diet,it still had the unique characteristics of plant-based mode.Compared with the western diet,its intake of protein and fat was lower.The consumption proportion of rice and vegetables in plant-based food was higher than that of other regions,and China would approach or enter the plateau period of food consumption at a lower level of per capita GDP.By analyzing the historical trend of the evolution of China's food GHG,combined with the global background and the development stage of China's food consumption,the peak level and peak time of food GHG under the future growth scenarios of per capita GDP were analyzed.The results showed that driven by the growth of food consumption and the transformation of food structure,China's per capita food GHG had increased by nearly 7 times,which is the largest increase in the world,but it was approaching the plateau period,only 5% away from the peak level of 608 kg.After reaching the peak,it is still lower than the peak level in North America,Oceania,and Europe.China's total food GHG had increased by nearly 16 times,mainly driven by population growth and changes in food consumption structure,while the growth of per capita food consumption made a smaller contribution.Under different scenarios,the peak time of China's total food GHG is between 2029-2049,with a peak value of about 856.06-917.62 million tons,and there is still room for an increase of 3.55%-11.36% compared with the 2018 level.By setting different scenarios,the theoretical potential of GHG reduction through the optimization of food structure in China in the future was discussed.According to the results of the scenario analysis,taking the low population growth rate as an example,assuming that China gradually adjusts its food consumption structure to the dietary guidance model by 2040,the total food GHG will decrease year by year,with a decrease of more than 50% compared with the 2018 level.Technological progress and reducing food waste will also greatly reduce the peak level of food GHG and make the peak time earlier.Finally,according to the life cycle of food,GHG reduction strategies such as reducing agricultural GHG emission,improving food circulation efficiency,optimizing food consumption structure and reducing food waste were put forward from the aspects of production,circulation and consumption,respectively.