China's Changing Policy Towards Afghanistan(2009-2019)

International politics isn't a static phenomenon;instead,the most thriving characteristic is the change.Owing to this distinguishing feature,the relations among states has to be varied accordingly.Both internal and external modifications affect states' behavior,reflects in the form of their foreign policies.Therefore,it's a mountainous task to study the state's action,analytically and objectively.The thesis is an attempt to highlight continuity and change in policies of major regional powers at large and the role of leadership in foreign policy changes at particular.China has maintained a cautious policy towards Afghanistan;a state victim of foreign intervention and domestic violence more than four decades.Changing the nature of the conflict,dynamics of power configuration and evolution of policy response by China have been analyzed in this study.The Heart of Asia;Afghanistan embraced several internal coup d'etats,faced the wrath of the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the exercise of military might by the-then hegemon in the post-Cold War era.These back-to-back power shows by superpowers had implications for regional security,order and peace.Not only neighboring states had impacts of such major power shifts but also underwent a policy transformation to respond to this change.Afghanistan lies within the second and third of four-concentric security circles of China and is very important as the source of stability/instability in the western region of China.However,fewer attempts have been made to explore this western neighbor.This study applies the Neo-Classical Realism(NCR)and tries to explain the link between internal(Perception of new leadership in China about the relative positioning of his state in international system)and external variable;withdrawal of the United States,uncertainty in terms of the power vacuum and potential stronghold of an adversarial state;particularly India in Afghanistan.It maintains that while the United States announced withdrawal from the immediate neighborhood of China,yet India;a state that has been an active partner in the United States'pivot to Asia policy which is considered as offensive encirclement in China's view,enjoyed the extended support of Washington in Afghanistan.Additionally,extensive scale cooperation between India and Afghanistan that ranges from a political stratum,infrastructure building,economic investment,so-called humanitarian assistance and last but not least security and strategic partnership,invokes several concerns for China.These include potential support to Islamic militancy in western China,a threat to the territorial integrity of Pakistan.In contrast,Pakistan bears the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)by China.Considering these factors,a change in perception of leadership in Beijing resulted in change in policy from passive to active involvement in Kabul.The evolution of Chinese policy towards Afghanistan since 2009 is explained through the prism of NCR.It shares the basic assumptions with both Classical and Neo-Realism and takes into account the international and domestic variables to explain the foreign policy outcome of a state.The research takes the change in China's policy since 2009 as the dependent variable,with the U.S withdrawal growing concerned for increasing Indian involvement affecting their relative position in the region as external(independent)variable and changing perception of China's leadership as an internal(intervening)variable.The research focuses on the period since 2009 to 2019 and holds the period since 2001 as a pre-evolution phase where China played the role of an observer and maintained a modest economic presence in Afghanistan.Since the first announcement of withdrawal of the US-led western forces in 2009,China's Afghanistan policy has been changing towards more engagement and bilateral cooperation.The word‘changing'implies that ever since 2009,China has been upgrading its Afghanistan's engagement.The purpose of choosing the period 2009 to present is based on the theory NCR,in which one independent variable is the announcement of withdrawal plan of the US-led western force that is one of the major precursors for China's Afghan policy.Under the independent variables,the research will evaluate the China's Afghan policy since 2009 to present.To regulate the cause-and-effect relations between the dependent,independent and intervening variables,the study applies process tracing.In doing so,the research used both primary and secondary sources,including monographs,journal articles,newspapers and official databases.This study consists of several chapters.Chapter 1,the first chapter explains the research background,it outlines the whole thesis and offers a fundamental base for research under the mentioned topic.Encompassing the ground,it then proceeds to postulate hypothesis and explains the gap by evaluating previous literature.Lastly,theoretical framework,hypothesis,methodology,significance,literature review and objective of the study are discussed.Chapter 2,it takes a look at the wars in Afghanistan and the responses of relevant actors.The first part based on the historical background of Afghanistan accounts for the relevance of the 1979 war and the involvement of significant actors.The second part of the chapter explains the effects of 9/11 and its impacts on the security situation in Afghanistan;the chapter connects the links of the relevant actors'policies based on the pre 9/11 situation.It comprehensively deals with the significance of Afghanistan for China and other regional states.A thorough pro-genesis of the modern history of Afghanistan has been made,that helps in establishing the link between great power politics of balancing and role of buffer states from the era of colonialism to contemporary times.It also highlights the importance of Afghanistan in more excellent regional connectivity.The chapter then looks at China's policy evolution since 9/11 and change in its stance towards Afghanistan.Chapter 3,it deals with the role of internal variables,i.e.,the part of leadership and their perception about the relative positioning of their state in the international system,the continuation of Neighborhood diplomacy and BRI.It also looks at China's increasing economic interest in Afghanistan.The worsening security situation has also been discussed and its spillover effects that can have implications over western part of China.Chapter 4,through looking at the role of the United States' exit policy and its effects not only on the region but most importantly on China,throws light on the external variables.By analyzing the change in power dynamics due to the creation of power vacuum and the threat of rival regional powers to take over,the chapter takes into consideration the potential factors which can threaten Chinese interests in the region.Chapter 5,it concludes that China approach towards Afghanistan amongst all great powers has been exemplary.This chapter also concludes the whole study.The concluding remarks are that China moulded its Afghan policy under the pretext of external and internal variables.Moreover,China's Afghan policy is best explained under the theory NCR.The theoretical justification best explains the whole effect on the Chinese foreign policy towards Afghanistan.Also,the thesis presents some recommendations.