| Since the 1994 "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" and the 1997 "Kyoto Protocol" came into force,environmental protection and emission reduction have become the focus of attention,which has directly promoted the formation of the global carbon market and carbon finance.Governments started to increasingly participate in the construction of carbon financial markets.With the rapid development of China's national economy and the increasing pressure on environmental protection,the establishment and unification of the carbon financial market are of great significance to winning the tough battle of pollution prevention and control indicated in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the CPC.In 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Construction Plan(Power Generation Industry)",which indicated that the construction of the national carbon financial market has entered a new stage.How are the operating conditions of major pilots of China's carbon financial market? Is there a gap between our market and mature markets abroad? Is the carbon financial markets efficient or not? What are the differences between the major pilots? What factors caused such differences? These are the main issues that we should pay attention to and also are the focus of the present article.The article proceeded from the background and significance of global carbon financial transactions and sorted out domestic and foreign studies on the connotation and concepts of carbon financial markets,the efficiency of carbon financial markets,and the simulation of carbon financial market policies.The structure of the carbon financial market and the mechanism of carbon financial market formation were explained,the efficiency of the carbon financial market was defined,and the relevant externality theory and fractal market theory of the carbon financial market were introduced.Subsequently,the international comparison and analysis of the operating mechanism of the carbon financial market were conducted.Based on this,the efficiency of the carbon financial market was modeled,measured,and relevant software was developed and applied and its influencing factors and policy simulations were further explored to improve the efficiency of China's carbon financial market and provide some reference for policy decisions.The main contents include:First of all,the research significance and ideas of the article were expounded and relevant literature was reviewed.After expounding the research background and significance of the carbon financial market and defining the scope of the study,relevant research literature was sorted out and summarized from three aspects: the connotation of the carbon financial market,the efficiency measurement of the carbon financial market,and the policy simulation of the carbon financial market efficiency,and research methods and innovation points were put forward.Secondly,the connotation and theory of carbon financial market efficiency were discussed.Starting from the composition of the carbon financial market,the stakeholders,financial products and price discovery mechanisms that constitute the carbon financial market transactions were expounded;then,the actual application of the theory of externalities in economics involved in the formation and operation of the carbon financial market was discussed,the relationship between carbon finance and environmental finances was explained based on environmental finance theory,and the theoretical basis of the carbon finance market efficiency was analyzed from the functional financial theory and fractal market theory;finally,the definition and measurement theory of carbon financial market efficiency was explained.Thirdly,the trading systems and operating mechanisms of domestic and foreign carbon financial markets were compared.From the perspective of the trading system's coverage,operation mode,and regulatory mechanism,EU ETS is relatively mature and China's carbon market still needs to be further improved in this regard;from the perspective of the pricing mechanism,EU ETS mainly uses the supply-demand relationship of emissions allowances in the market for pricing while the domestic market prices with the CDM project and CERS;from the perspective of the operating mechanism,the effectiveness and stability of the carbon price of the seven pilot carbon emission trading markets in China are not ideal and the efficiency of resource allocation is relatively low.Fourthly,the efficiency evaluation system of China's carbon financial market was established and measured.According to the characteristics of the efficient market hypothesis and carbon financial market transactions,using the input-output model nested with allocation-operation-management input indicators and output indicators that include economic,environmental and social benefits,and adding an indicator system considering institutional factors,after performing index pre-processing and assessing the effectiveness of the evaluation system,the results were measured from the input,output,and comprehensive efficiency,and efficiency before and after eliminating institutional factors.According to measured results,the input and output efficiency of the carbon financial market was highly consistent.The scores of the two manifested a certain correlation with the order of the establishment of the pilots.But no significant correlation was shown regarding the location of the region or the level of local economic development.In addition,institutional factors had a certain impact on the efficiency of the carbon financial market.Fifthly,the carbon financial market efficiency index was analyzed and the carbon financial market efficiency heat map software was developed.Based on the analysis of the input,output,and comprehensive dimensions of the efficiency of the carbon financial market,Guangdong was at a high-efficiency level regarding the carbon financial input and output efficiency and the overall index.Besides,Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,and Tianjin were in the second tier,and the third tier included two pilot regions for carbon finance trading in Chongqing and Hubei;External institutional factors had a certain impact on the efficiency of the carbon financial market;Through the use of C ++ and EXCEL software,visualization of the market efficiency of various carbon financial trading pilot areas across the country was realized,which helped facilitate practical decision-making and real-time monitoring.Sixthly,an analysis of factors influencing the efficiency of the carbon financial market was conducted.Starting from the objectives and effectiveness of carbon financial market supervision,the influence of carbon financial market efficiency of active supervision-based disclosure of carbon information and passive supervision-based event shocks was measured and analyzed.Among active supervision factors,the size of the enterprise,industry characteristics,and whether it is listed overseas were in significant positive correlation with the level of carbon information disclosure;For passive supervision factors,although the implementation of carbon financial policies did not reduce energy consumption,it significantly lowered the growth rate of energy consumption and increased GDP growth.Seventhly,a simulation model for the efficiency policy of the carbon financial market was constructed.Based on the measured results of China 's carbon financial market efficiency and the analysis of influencing factors,a system dynamics model was used to establish a flowchart and a system dynamics model that affects the efficiency of the carbon financial market.Six types of policies were selected to explore their effects on the efficiency of the carbon financial market.It was found that the major factors influencing the efficiency of carbon financial markets in first-tier cities were corporate governance and carbon emissions trading systems,while the carbon financial markets established in the later stages were mainly restricted by information disclosure.Meanwhile,the economic development basis in Tianjin,Chongqing,and Hubei fell behind first-tier cities.Therefore,economic development policies would also restrict the efficiency of the carbon financial market to a certain extent.Finally,policy suggestions for improving the efficiency of China's carbon financial market were put forward.Targeting suggestions were proposed from the perspectives of the construction elements of the carbon financial market,resource allocation,the determination of carbon price ranges,and the strengthening of information disclosure and supervision. |
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