Flexible Capacity Emergency Management Based On Supply Chain Disruption Risks

Over the last several decades,emergency incidents occurred frequently all over the world.There are a lot of examples that firms suffer much heavily from supply chain disruptions.So supply chain disruption risks management becomes an important research branch in the field of supply chain management research.There is no doubt that flexible capacity plays an important role in supply chain disruption risks management.However,current research mainly analyses via qualitative method the significance of flexible capacity.Only a few quantitative studies just analyses certain specific related issues.With regard to the issue of establishing flexible capacity applied to supply chain disruption risks management,both theoretical framework at the macro level and modeling analysis of basic problems at the micro level are needed,which are gaps in current research.In the above background,the dissertation focuses on the research theme of establishing flexible capacity applied to supply chain disruption risks management.The dissertation proposes theoretical framework at the macro level first.Then it analyses the basic and core problems-the investment and configuration of flexible capacity-via quantitative method at the micro level.Specifically,flexible capacity investment problem and configuration problem are analysed respectively first.Then flexible capacity investment and configuration joint decision problem are analysed.In the theoretical framework of flexible capacity management based on supply chain disruption risks,related concepts are defined first in order to state explicitly what is flexible capacity management based on supply chain disruption risks and limit the research domain of the dissertation.Then the mechanism of flexible capacity management based on supply chain disruption risks is analyzed to answer the question why flexible capacity can be applied to supply chain disruption risks management.Finally,the construction system is provided to answer the question how to establish flexible capacity applied to supply chain disruption risks management.In the analysis of investment decision of flexible capacity based on supply chain disruption risks,the dissertation considers an operations system producing two product families and confronting demand-side disruption risk.The decision maker has the option to invest in dedicated capacities and flexible capacity.To study the optimal investment strategy,we model the firm's decision as a two-stage stochastic programming problem,in which deviation risk is restricted within a certain level.Our analysis provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal strategy and the threshold policy for the flexible capacity investment.The results in the context of deviation risk constraint are compared with results derived outside of the context of deviation risk constraint.Furthermore,a numerical example is given to depict the optimal investment strategy.In the analysis of configuration decision of flexible capacity based on supply chain disruption risks,an operations system producing n product families and including m plants are considered.The system confronts capacity disruption risks resulting from emergency incidents.Two ways are adopted to consider capacity disruption risks.One way is that capacity disruption risks are considered with combination of capacity routine fluctuation.The other way is that capacity disruption risks are considered separately.For the former,flexibility configuration model aimed at minimizing the expected shortfall is constructed and analyzed.In the numerical simulation,we try to find the optimal partial flexibility configuration via calculating JG index,and calculate the expected shortfall of every flexibility configuration.For the latter,flexibility configuration model aimed at minimizing the shortfall in the worst situation is constructed and analyzed.In the numerical simulation,we analyze the performance of different flexibility configuration(dedicated,pairing,2-chain,3-chain,full flexibility)when faced with capacity disruption.In the analysis of investment and configuration synthesis decision of flexile capacity based on supply chain disruption risks,the dissertation considers an operations system producing n product families and confronting capacity disruption risks resulting from emergency incidents.When construct synthesis decision models,decision maker's risk attitudes are considered.In the situation that decision maker is risk neutral,an expected value model is constructed,aimed at maximizing the expected profit.In the situation that decision maker is risk averse,an CVaR model is constructed,aimed at maximizing the CVaR value of profit.Based on the two models,take an n=4 operations system as example,design particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the problem.Based on numerical results,we analyse the optimal invstment and configuration synthesis decisions and its sensitivity to key parameters,and compare the differences of the optiaml synthesis decisions under different risk attitudes.During the research of the core problems above,the dissertation combines supply chain disruption risks management and planning of flexible capaxity under uncertainty.It explores how to establish flexible capacity to manage supply chain disruption risks,meanwhile extend the problem of planning of flexible capacity to the background of supply chain disruption risks.Specifically,the dissertation obtains the following innovation points.(1)The dissertation provides a theoretical framework for the problem of flexible capacity management based on supply chain disruption risks.This innovation point tries to fill the research gap,and provide the systemic thinking frame for the future research on flexible capacity management based on supply chain disruption risks.(2)The analysis of flexible capacity investment decision based on supply chain disruption risks modifies the flexile capacity invstment model under routine risks,specific to the characticteristics of supply chain disruption risks.Deviation risk constraint is added to the flexile capacity invstment model under routine risks.It extends the problem of flexible capacity investment to the background of supply chain disruption risks.(3)With regard to the flexible capacity configuration problem,the literature mainly considers operational risks,rarely considers disruption risks.The analysis of flexible capacity configuration decision based on supply chain disruption risks extends the problem of flexible capacity configuration to the background of supply chain disruption risks.The flexible capacity configuration models are constructed in the situation of considering capacity disruption combined with capacity routine fluctuation,and in the situation of considering capacity disruption separately.(4)Flexible capacity investment problem and configuration problem are studied separately in most of the literature,except for few literature analyzes investment and configuration problems jointly,considering routine fluctuation of demand.The analysis of investment and configuration synthesis decision of flexile capacity based on supply chain disruption risks in the dissertation extends the research in two dimensions.First,it considers capacity disruption risk.Second,it extends the research to the situation considerding risk attitudes.In the situation of risk neutral,an expected value model is constructed.In the situation of risk averse,an CVaR model is constructed.