Research On Spatial Diffusion Effect Of Technological Progress Bias In China's Manufacturing Industry

With the continuous acceleration of economic growth,the importance of technological progress bias has been widely recognized by scholars at home and abroad.The continuous integration of disciplinary development has further expanded the exploration field of technological progress bias.Due to the positive externalities of technology spillover,,technology diffusion effect is likely to occur in the process of R&D and introduction,which will have an impact on the technological progress bias of the imported areas.The spillover effect of technological progress bias can form a central radiation effect in regional development,thus driving the development of technological progress bias of other regions and guiding regional economy.Cooperative development is an important proposition worth exploring in the planning of resource-rich China.However,there are few studies on the spatial diffusion effects of technological progress bias,especially on the spatial diffusion channels of technological progress bias,which is the main starting point of this study.Made-in-China 2025 clearly puts forward the need for innovation-driven,and technological progress is the primary driving force of innovation-driven.Correct control of the bias of technological progress will make the development of China's manufacturing industry twice the result with half the effort.This paper takes China's manufacturing industry as the research object,combs the research status of the frontier literature on technology progress bias and spatial diffusion effect,constructs the spatial diffusion effect model of technology progress bias,explores the characteristics of technology progress bias and spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry,determines the provinces at the technological frontier of each region as the radiation center,and focuses on the analysis of the surrounding areas of each regional central region.The spatial driving role of regions is to study the spatial diffusion effect of technological progress bias in China's manufacturing industry under different transmission paths,to further tap the boundary effect of spatial diffusion of technological progress bias in manufacturing industry in each province.It is helpful to form suggestions for the technological progress of manufacturing industry in different regions and provinces,the optimization of factor mix structure and narrowing factor income gap.Specific research methods and conclusions are as follows:(1)Overview of relevant theories and literature review.This paper systematically combs the two dimensions of technology progress bias and technology space diffusion effect.On the one hand,the bias of technological progress is summarized in terms of theoretical development,calculation methods,main sources and economic explanations;on the other hand,it is summarized in terms of relevant theories,existence,transmission paths,influencing factors and boundary effects.Generally speaking,there is a lack of theoretical and empirical research on the bias of technological progress from the perspective of spatial diffusion.There are few studies on the bias of technological progress in China's manufacturing industry to be supplemented,and the related studies on the bias of technological progress in China's inter-regional manufacturing industry to be enriched,which are worthy of in-depth discussion and research.(2)Spatial diffusion mechanism of technological progress bias.The basic hypothesis model of product R&D-final product production in closed economy is constructed,and the expression of technology progress bias is deduced.It is concluded that technology progress bias is inherent in the factor endowment structure of the region.The bias depends on the factor input share in the production process of two factor-intensive products,the distribution coefficient of two factor-intensive products and the substitution bomb.Sex.In the open economy,we further expand the model,considering the change of technology progress bias under the three transmission channels of technology trade,intermediate trade and labor and capital flow,relying on technology choice model,trade model and factor flow model,we derive the expression formula of technology progress bias and the change of expression before and after transmission.On the basis of the original determinants,the bias of technological progress also depends on the relative quality gap,transport price index and the relative spatial distance ratio of the imported innovative products;the price of factor-intensive intermediates in the intermediate trade;and the return rate of local and inflow factors,transport price index and empty space in the labor and capital flows.The distance between them.Furthermore,the change of technological progress bias caused by the change of spatial factors in different transmission paths is discussed.(3)The measurement of technological progress bias and spatial development trend analysis of China's manufacturing industry.This paper uses the three-equation standardized supply-side system method to measure the technological progress bias of manufacturing industry in China's provinces,and uses nuclear density analysis method and geographical distribution method to analyze the changing trend and characteristics of the technological progress bias of manufacturing industry from regional and provincial perspectives respectively.The research shows that the substitution elasticity of labor capital in manufacturing industry in China and other provinces is less than 1,that is,technological progress is biased towards capital,of which the capital bias in Northwest China is the strongest,while that in eastern China is the weakest.In 2004,2008,2012 and 2013,labor-biased technological progress appeared in each region.The trend of technological progress bias index in China's manufacturing industry is mainly determined by the eastern region.In recent years,the development of manufacturing technology progress bias index in Northeast,Southwest and Northwest China has begun to show lagging effect.The technological progress bias of manufacturing industry in all provinces is decentralized,but the technological progress of manufacturing industry in most provinces is still capital-biased,and the development trend is consistent.(4)The existence test of spatial diffusion effect of technological progress bias in China's manufacturing industry.Firstly,the spatial correlation of technological progress bias in manufacturing industry of each province is analyzed by using Moran index and Gilley index,and the existence of the spatial correlation of technological progress bias is determined.Secondly,data envelopment analysis(DEA)is used to determine the technological frontier provinces,namely Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong.On this basis,an index system of technological radiation capability is constructed,and the technological radiation capability of manufacturing industry in the three frontier provinces is evaluated by dynamic factor analysis method.The technological radiation radius of manufacturing industry in the frontier provinces is further solved by gravity model,and the radiation range is from large to small.Then Guangdong,Shanghai and Beijing.Finally,in the metropolitan area determined by the radiation radius,the existence of spatial diffusion effect of technological progress bias in manufacturing industry of different technological frontier provinces was tested by FGLS method.The research shows that the technological progress bias of manufacturing industry in technological frontier provinces has a significant positive impact on the technological progress bias of manufacturing industry in peripheral radiated areas,and the technological progress bias of manufacturing industry in Shanghai and Guangdong is the decisive factor of the technological progress direction of manufacturing industry in peripheral radiated areas.(5)An empirical study on the conduction path of spatial diffusion effect of technological progress bias in China's manufacturing industry.Based on spatial transmission mechanism,an empirical model of spatial spillover of technological progress bias is constructed.The significance of spatial and temporal dimensions under non-spatial panel model is screened by likelihood ratio test(LR).The corresponding model is selected for OLS regression and Hausman test for fixed and random effects.Lagrange multiplier test(LM)is performed on the selected regression results to determine the significance of spatial lag or spatial error variables in the model.Finally,the likelihood ratio test(LR)is applied to determine whether SDM model can be simplified to SAR or SEM model.The results show that the empirical conclusions are consistent with the transmission mechanism of the spatial diffusion effect of technological progress bias under the three transmission paths,whether from the provincial perspective or the radiation circle perspective,and the three transmission paths have their own characteristics.Under the transmission path of intermediate trade,the transmission effect of capital bias of technological progress is better in the whole country and radiation circles.Under the transmission path of technology trade,the transmission of technological progress direction of manufacturing industry in China,Beijing radiation circle and Shanghai radiation circle is mainly reflected in capital bias,while the transmission of technological progress direction of manufacturing industry in Guangdong radiation circle is mainly reflected in labor bias.Under the transmission path of labor and capital flow,the transmission of technological progress direction of manufacturing industry in the whole country and Shanghai radiation circle is mainly reflected in the capital bias,while the transmission of technological progress direction of manufacturing industry in Guangdong radiation circle is mainly reflected in the labor bias.(6)Analysis of the spatial diffusion boundary effect of technological progress bias in China's manufacturing industry.This paper establishes the mechanism of the effect of boundary effect on the bias of technological progress,constructs an empirical model,and uses threshold regression method to empirically test the effect of boundary effect on the bias of technological progress in manufacturing industry under three transmission channels,with a view to providing relevant reference and suggestions for policy regulation.The research shows that capital-biased technological progress has better transmission effect than labor-biased technological progress in the three transmission paths.When improving the labor-biased degree of technological progress in manufacturing industry,we need to further strengthen the efforts to achieve the desired transmission effect.Generally speaking,the transmission effect of eastern region is the best,while that of western region is the worst.