Comprehensive Evaluation Method And Applied Study Of Regional Industrial Development Potential

Facing to the ISID(Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development)requirement and the current situation of China in economic and social development,the study aims on providing the solutions to the current problems which the centre and local government concern about,such as status of tight constraints of resources,and deterioration of the environment,as well as difficulties in the process of economic development plans and industrial policies.Taking into account issues above,a method for evaluating the RIDP(Regional industrial development potential)based on the constraint of regional comprehensive carrying capacity is proposed.The study provides a way of quantitative assessment for the country to conduct differentiated management and control according to the status of regional capacity,and also provides a comparison method to enhance the RIDP.Based on the literature research,the study summarizes the achievements and deficiencies of current studies,analyzes the relevant factors that influence the development potential,and constructs a RIDP evaluation indicator system.Several comprehensive evaluation methods are applied to the empirical research based on relevant data collected from nine provinces in three areas of China(Beijing Capital Economic Circle composed of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Northeast China composed of Liaoning-Jilin-Heilongjiang,and Middle Yangtze River area composed of Jiangxi-Hubei-Hunan).Afterwards their RIDP indexes are gained,and accordingly,the relevant policy recommendations are proposed.Regarding to the innovation points of the method and practical applications,the main items are listed as following.The first,a reasonable evaluation indicator set has been constructed.The study has developed the concept of exogenous and endogenous potential indicators,especially,in line with China’s situation,the external factors such as the impact of regional policies,the influence of the business environment are included into the indicator set to construct a rational RIDP comprehensive evaluation system.Under this indicator set,a subset of comprehensive carrying capacity indicator set is proposed named as the 4E(ecology,environment,economy,energy),which belongs to the endogenous potential indicators.The RIDP indicator set also covers “starting points” which means the difference from regional industrial level.This indicator set covers both the promotion factors and the constraints factors of industrial economy.The second,the theoretical analysis and applied research on the evaluation of development potential from the perspective of comprehensive carrying capacity are carried out.A method of behavioral DEA is proposedto analyse the efficiency of each type of carrying capacity of ecology,environment,economy and energy,,which finds the influence of government behavior.The finding demonstrates the rationality of introducing policy factors into the indicator set.Then the state space method is introduced to realize the "summation" of each individual carrying capacity,and then the comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation is obtained.Further,some different methods are used to evaluate the potential elements of the external influcence,and the theoretical analysis and applied research on the development potential evaluation from the perspective of comprehensive carrying capacity are realized.The third,the regional economic integration strategy is confirmed to be positive on regional development potential.Guided by the national regional development strategy,“three areas and nine provinces” is chosed as the research object.Through quantitative analysis,the study confirms the effective promotion of regional economic integration to regional industrial development potential,which provides the theoritical evidence for China’s national regional economic strategy.Aiming at the applied research objects,the study also puts forward reasonable policy recommendations for the sustainable development of the regional economy.In short,this study starts with the definition of RIDP,combining endogenous indicators with external indicators,more focuses on endogenous indicators,combining qualitative research with quantitative research,more efforts on quantitative research,combining big area study with provincial region study,deeper on big area.The study constructs indicator set,and comprehensively uses behavioral DEA method,state space method and other methods.Finally,the study obtains RIDP evaluation results,and finds out the key factors affecting RIDP in various regions,and puts forward reasonable policy recommendations.