The Research On Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Hefei-Based On The State Space Method

With the rapid development of urbanization,a large number of people swarm into cities,change the pattern of urban development.As a particular region economy,the city supports human economic and social activities with the resource,meets human needs and promotes urban development.On the other hand,it also bears the pressure of resource consumption,environmental pollution and ecological damage.Especially the new concept of urbanization,points out that urban development should not only realize the amount of promotion,it should be more attention to quality,and the transformation,to enhance the quality of the population,the urban living environment,with emphasis on the level of public service,become the important direction of urban development.To realize sustainable development of human society,it is necessary to realize the sustainable development of the city,and the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city is an important basis to measure the level of urban development.The city of Hefei,as the capital of Anhui province,is not only the key city in the development of industrial transfer demonstration region of the city-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui and it is a key city in the Yangtze economy.With the development of urbanization in Hefei,environmental pollution,ecological pollution,traffic congestion and other problems also arise.It is an important way to improve the development level of Hefei city by studying the comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei city.Therefore,this article based on the related theoretical basis for review,firstly gives the conception of the urban comprehensive capacity.Then clear the basic principles of evaluation index system,first of all,establishing evaluation index system with the principles of clear,scientific,comprehensive and maneuverability.Then use the entropy method to empowering the evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei city,which provides the basis for the calculation of the following model.And using urban comprehensive carrying capacity calculation model of state space method to calculation Hefei city comprehensive bearing capacity from 2011 to 2016,Compared with other methods,the advantage of this method is that it can give a quantitative estimate of the bearing capacity and can compare the actual value withthe ideal value.In order to monitor and warn the development of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei city,the development trend of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei city is forecast with the grey prediction model.In this paper,the study found that: 2011-2016,the development and changes of urban comprehensive capacity in Hefei is divided into two stages.The first stages is2011-2012,which comprehensive bearing capacity of a declining trend;The second stages is2012-2016,which comprehensive bearing capacity of a steady upward trend.Exploring factors restricting the development process of the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei City,can be found in water resource is short board factors restricting Hefei city comprehensive carrying capacity,to promote the Hefei city comprehensive carrying capacity,we must strengthen the carrying capacity of water resources to improve finally by the gray forecast that the next few years the development of bearing capacity Hefei city is the trend of steadily rising,to have confidence in the development of Hefei city society,continue to consolidate the advantages of improving the short board,to promote the comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei in a better direction.