The Evolution And Advantage Evaluation Of Apple Production Layout In China

Since the reform and opening-up,apples took the lead in entering the market-oriented reforms.Under the guidance of the comparative interests of the apple industry,China's apple industry has developed rapidly.Since 1988 and 1992,the planting area and output of apples have been ranked first in the world respectively.The apple production area is also expanding,apples are planted in 25 provinces in Chinese mainland,covering the Bohai Bay,the Loess Plateau,the Yellow River Old Road,the Southwest Cold Highland,and the Special production areas.However,with the increase of urban and rural residents' income and the improvement of living standards,the upgrading of apple's market demand structure is accelerating.The existing apple supply model can not adapt to the changes in market demand,which leads to the imbalance between total supply and quality structure.Driven by high output,high import and high cost,the increasing pressure of structural reform on the supply side of apple industry highlights the necessity and urgency of optimizing the spatial layout of apple production in China.Due to the spillover effect of the higher relative price of apples in some regions,the policy support of precise poverty alleviation,the heterogeneity of farmers' rational choice and other factors,the proportion of apple planting area and output in unsuitable and sub-suitable areas in China has increased rapidly,resulting in the decline of the overall development quality of apple industry,the increase of the natural risks and market risks of apple production,and the continuous fluctuation of apple market prices.In order to reduce the risk of apple production and stabilize the apple market prices,it is extremely urgent to optimize the apple production layout in China.At the same time,apple industry has become an important pillar industry in major producing areas.Under the situation that the existing cultivated land resources are decreasing year by year and the reserve cultivated land resources are limited,giving full play to the regional comparative advantages of apple production,optimizing the layout of apple production,and improving the comprehensive production capacity and market competitiveness of apple industry are the key to ensuring the sustained and stable development of rural economy in major producing areas.Based on the above reasons,this study focused on solving the following four problems:first,what is the evolution law of apple production layout in China? Second,what are the factors affecting the evolution of China's apple production layout and their action mechanism? Thirdly,is the existing apple production layout reasonable in China? Fourth,how to further optimize the apple production layout in China? Based on the above problems,this study summarized the relevant research results and methods of agriculture and apple production layout by combing the existing literature.Firstly,descriptive statistics,logarithmic average weight index method,concentration index,barycenter index and other methods are used to analyze the development history,the driving force of output growth and the spatial agglomeration characteristics of apple production in China.Secondly,based on the industrial layout theory,agricultural production layout theory,agricultural regional factor theory and new spatial economics theory,this study constructed a theoretical framework for the driving factors of the evolution of China's apple production layout,and used traditional panel data models and spatial panel data models to empirically test the influence direction and intensity of these factors.Thirdly,based on the theory of comparative advantage,the comparative advantage index was used to evaluate the regional comparative advantages of apple production layout in China,and the existing problems and reasons were analyzed.Finally,according to the evolution law of Chinese apple production layout and the conclusion of its driving factors and the advantage evaluation,this study put forward the necessity,basic principles and policy suggestions for optimizing Chinese apple production layout.The main research conclusions include:First,China's apple production capacity has been increasing continuously.Since the reform and opening up,China's apple production has developed rapidly,and it occupies an important position in the world's apple industry and China's fruit industry.Judging from the time-series characteristics of apple production,China's apple planting area,output,and yield all showed a fluctuating growth trend,but the apple planting area fluctuated greatly,and went through five stages: the period of stability(1978?1984),the rapid growth period I(1985?1991),the rapid growth period II(1992?1996),the rapid decline period(1997?2003),and the saturation period(2004?2018).Apple's technological progress has led to an increase in yield,which is the main driving force for the increase in apple output in China.Second,the barycenter of China's apple production layout is characterized by a“southwest shift”.From 1978 to 2018,although China's apple production continued to expand in space,resulting in a downward trend in the overall concentration of apple production,the pattern of apple production is gathering in advantageous areas.The concentration of apple production in the advantageous area of the Loess Plateau continued to increase,with the highest growth rate,and has evolved into the largest apple production area in China.The advantageous area of the Bohai Bay gradually declined and became the second-largest apple production area in China.Apple production in other production areas was basically stable.The barycenter of apple planting area in China has moved from115.24°E and 37.06°N(located in Julu County,Hebei Province)in 1978 to 110.16 °E and36.44 °N(located in Yanchang County,Shaanxi Province)in 2018,with a total movement of586.13 kilometers to the southwest.The barycenter of apple output has changed from116.95°E and 37.86°N(located in Nanpi County,Hebei Province)in 1978 to 111.65°E and36.44°N(located in Lingshi County,Shanxi Province)in 2018,with a total movement of609.40 kilometers to the southwest.The apple production barycenter in China is shifting to the southwest.The barycenter migration from the Bohai Bay to the Loess Plateau is basically in line with the goal orientation of the national apple industry layout planning and industrial policy.Third,the layout of China's apple production was affected by multiple factors.Since1978,the spatial autocorrelation of apple production at the provincial level has been remarkable,showing a wave-shaped evolution trend.The spatial concentration of apple planting area has a downward trend over time,and the high concentration area of apple planting has obviously moved to the southwest.Considering the spatial effect,apple comparative income,apple effective irrigation area,transportation density,apple superior regional planning,the food security policy of “rice bag governor responsibility system”,and apple disaster-affected area have a significant influence on the evolution of apple production layout in China.Fourth,the regional comparative advantages of apple production in China were obviously differentiated and the overall layout was basically reasonable.At the producing area level,the efficiency,scale and comprehensive comparative advantage index of apple production in the advantageous area of the Loess Plateau were generally on the rise and the scale advantage in the five major producing areas was the most obvious.The efficiency and comprehensive comparative advantage index of apple production in the advantageous area of the Bohai Bay showed an inverted U-shaped evolution trend,while the scale comparative advantage index showed an overall growth trend.The efficiency and comprehensive comparative advantage index of apple production in the Yellow River Old Road production area have increased,while the scale comparative advantage index has decreased slightly.Although apple production's efficiency comparative advantage index in Southwest Cold Highland production area increased slightly,the scale and comprehensive comparative advantage index gradually decreased.The efficiency and comprehensive comparative advantage index of apple production in the Special producing area decreased obviously,while the scale comparative advantage index increased.At the provincial level,the efficiency,scale and comprehensive comparative advantage index of apple production in central and western provinces,such as Shaanxi,Shanxi and Henan,have been significantly increased,and the barycenter shift of apple production from the Bohai Bay to the Loess Plateau basically accorded with with the changes of comparative advantage within regional planting industry.Fifth,the layout of apple production in China needs to be further optimized.Apple's production efficiency and scale comparative advantage were inconsistent in some provinces,and some even had a big gap.Most provinces showed the characteristics that the comparative advantage of scale is obviously higher than than that of efficiency.Although the basic pattern of China's major apple producing provinces was relatively stable,apple production situation in some traditional producing areas has declined,the apple production status in coastal provinces,such as Shandong,Liaoning and Hebei,has declined,while the apple production status in inland provinces,such as Shaanxi and Gansu,has increased.The regional differences of apple production and sales have widened,the regional imbalance between apple production and consumption has intensified,and the pattern of long-distance logistics and large-scale transportation of apples is difficult to change.Some provinces had no advantage of efficiency in apple production,and the change of apple production cost and income is the real driving force for the change of apple production layout in China.Areas with high input and low output,such as Gansu and Henan,and areas with low input and low output,such as Shanxi,Hebei and Liaoning,had no advantage of benefit in apple production.Sixth,the optimization of apple production layout in China requires a range of measures.In the development of China's apple industry,there are still some problems,such as the inadequate implementation of the layout principle according to local conditions,low production efficiency of apples,structure imbalance between supply and demand,etc.,which highlights the necessity of optimizing the layout of China's apple production.In the future,when optimizing the layout of apple production in China,we should adhere to the basic principles of giving full play to regional comparative advantages,guiding the benefits of apples,strengthening the reform on the supply-side structure,enhancing the guiding role of the planning policy and the supervision role of governments,improving the production conditions of apples,and promoting the effective connection between supply and demand of apples.