| The adjustment of national economic structure is a normal problem for China to enter the new normal.It is the most important way to improve the quality and efficiency of national economy operation and maintain the optimal and appropriate speed to actively seek structural equilibrium under the condition of the basic equilibrium of total quantity according to the optimal state of supply and demand in national economy operation.National economy structure rationally and highly quality restricts the development of the national economy,and the symbol of national economy structure optimization is to maximize the social welfare of the aggregate balance of supply and demand condition of the structure of supply and demand equilibrium,the equilibrium is a sustainable trend in fluctuation of balanced development in the process of implementation.With the further development of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution,the development of national economy in our country is faced with important strategic opportunities and challenges,based on the new stage of development,carry out new development concept,under the background of comprehensively deepen reform,with a new idea continuously optimize structure of the national economy development is the driving force of high quality and economic development in our country.Therefore,to study and judge the development characteristics and trends of China's supply and demand structure and grasp the focus of the optimization and adjustment of the national economic structure is an important subject that we need to explore.Based on this,this paper aims to explore the issues related to the optimization of national economic structure from the perspective of supply and demand equilibrium,with the goal of keeping the national economy running within a reasonable range.To study how to optimize the national economic structure,this paper focuses on the following three issues:First,what is the current situation of the development of China's national economic structure from the perspective of equilibrium between supply and demand,what problems exist and what methods are used to discuss it?Second,what is the idea of optimizing the national economic structure?How to adjust the structure of supply and demand to realize the optimization of the national economic structure?Third,what is the focus of restructuring the national economy?Based on the above problems,the general idea and chapter arrangement of this paper are as follows.The general idea of this paper is as follows:starting from ensuring and improving people's livelihood,taking the research on supply and demand structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period as a case,using ARIMA model and C-D model to forecast the total demand and supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.From the perspective of demand,the ARIMA model is used to predict the total consumption,investment and net export demand and its evolution trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of China.From the perspective of supply,C-D model and ARIMA model are combined to predict the total amount of willing supply and its evolution trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in China.Finally,combine input-output model by intermediate product of supply and demand rate,final product rate of supply and demand and social total supply and demand rate three levels to explore the structure of supply and demand in China,thus to our country characteristic and developing trend of supply and demand structure,to grasp the focus of the national economy adjust supply and demand balance,to explore the focus of the national economy structure adjustment of supply and demand,optimizing the path and the optimized countermeasures to achieve the purpose of optimizing the structure of the national economy.This paper is composed of eight chapters.The main contents of each chapter are as follows:The first chapter is an overview.It first raises questions according to the background of the topic,then introduces the purpose and significance of the research,clarifies the structure of the full text through the research framework,and finally expounds the research methods and innovation points.The second chapter firstly defines the concepts related to national economy and its structure,adjustment of national economy structure,total supply and demand equilibrium,demand side and supply side.Secondly,it sorts out the theoretical basis and literature review related to the study of national economy structure,so that it can be applied in the follow-up study of optimization and adjustment countermeasures.In the part of theoretical foundation,this paper sorted out the economic growth and economic development theory,supply and demand equilibrium theory,industrial structure theory,input-output analysis theory.In the literature review part,the new normal of national economy operation,the supply-side structural reform,the imbalance of demand structure and its impact,and the supply-demand structure of national economy are expounded.The third chapter mainly elaborated our country economic structure optimization analysis framework.Following the way of thinking in optimizing the structure of the national economy,starting from defining the starting point,continue to the symbol of national economy structure optimization are discussed,principle and mechanism,and on this basis,respectively discusses the requirements of the national economy and its structure,the supply of the national economy and its structure,and structural optimization basis of short-term aggregate balance and the structural optimization guarantee of long-term balance,finally expounds the adjustment way.The fourth chapter explores the state and evolution trend of national economic demand from the point of view of demand.Firstly,the state of China's demand is analyzed,and then the ARIMA model is used to forecast the total consumption,investment and net export demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of China,and the development characteristics and trends of China's consumption demand,investment demand and net export demand are expounded.The fifth chapter explores the supply state and evolution trend of national economy from the perspective of supply.This paper first analyzes the state of China's supply,and then predicts the total amount of China's willing supply in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan by combining C-D model and ARIMA model,and analyzes the structure of China's willing supply.Chapter six analyzes the equilibrium of supply and demand structure in China.This chapter will be the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter of the total supply and total demand forecast as a result,to the input-output model,calculate the rate of the supply and demand in China during the period of "difference",from the overall structure of the 42 departments to analyze the rate of supply and demand,thus to our country characteristic and developing trend of supply and demand structure,to grasp the focus of the national economy adjust the balance of supply and demand.The equilibrium analysis of China's supply and demand structure includes three parts:The first part analyzes the impact of consumption demand,investment demand and net export demand on the total product structure from the perspective of demand;The second part analyzes the expanding reproduction capacity of supply and the income of each factor from the perspective of supply.The third part combines input-output model to explore the structure of supply and demand on three levels:first level by rate of intermediate product of supply and demand,the second level by measuring the rate of supply and demand of the end product to explore,third level by measuring the total product rate of supply and demand to explore,by measuring the rate of supply and demand of the whole structure of 42 departments,summarizes the characteristics of the structure of supply and demand in China and its development trend.Chapter seven discusses the optimization and adjustment of supply and demand structure of our national economy.Firstly,it expounds the key points of the optimization and adjustment of the structure of supply and demand of the national economy,then it analyzes the optimization path of the structure of supply and demand,and finally puts forward the countermeasures of the optimization and adjustment of the structure of supply and demand of the national economy.The eighth chapter summarizes the whole paper and looks forward to the higher quality development of China's national economic structure.This paper takes the supply-demand structure relationship in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan as a case,discusses how to optimize the national economic structure from the perspective of supply-demand equilibrium,and strives to achieve innovation in the following aspects:First,make every effort to realize the innovation of the research method of optimizing the national economic structure.In this paper,the optimization of national economic structure is discussed from the perspective of supply and demand equilibrium.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the balance of total supply and demand on the basis of predicting the desired demand and desired supply of national economy respectively,and then discuss the disequilibrium problem of national economic structure.Finally,the path of realizing the optimization of national economic structure is given.In this paper,the state of national economic structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is taken as an example,and the aggregate analysis and structure analysis are made by using the forecast model,econometric model and input-output model to the economic state during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Firstly,the ARIMA model and C-D model are used to forecast the desired total demand and desired total supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,and then ues the input-output model to calculate the rate of the gap between supply and demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,which can provide a basis for the adjustment of the national economic structure.The research on the structure of national economy by measuring the difference between supply and demand of total quantity and structure is relatively scarce.The research attempt of this paper is a kind of innovation.Second,we should try our best to use systematic analysis method to study the relationship of national economic structure and get the key point of the optimization of national economic structure under the condition of the overall coordination of the system.The scale of China's national economy is very large,the structure is complex,all aspects of the problem,need a whole system analysis process.Through system analysis,this paper found that the more outstanding structural problems in China during the period of"difference",one is the intermediate product of supply and demand gap of the research results show that the secondary industry in light industry and low-end manufacturing sector in the middle of the product supply,the third industry in the public management,social security and social organizations in the middle of the products in short supply;Second,the research results of the gap between the supply and demand of final products show that the consumer demand of the financial industry is oversupplied,while the consumer demand for the development of service industry and public service industry is oversupplied.The investment demand of the real estate industry is oversupplied,while the investment demand of the secondary industry is oversupplied.Net export demand for the secondary industry,such as petrochemical,construction,hydropower and other sectors of the export demand is short of supply,while the tertiary industry in the emerging service sector of the foreign net export demand is short of supply.The conclusions of these systematic analyses are of innovative significance.Thirdly,we should try our best to explore the order,principle and mechanism of the optimization of national economic structure innovatively.According to the logical order of the research in this paper,the order of national economic structure optimization is carried out in the order of consumption demand-investment demand-net export demandintermediate demand-total demand-total supply-short-term supply structure-long-term supply structure.In accordance with this,the principle of the optimization of national economic structure is as follows:consumption demand is the starting point and destination of the optimization of national economic structure;The coordinated development of industrial structure is the basis and condition of the optimization of national economic structure.Technological progress is the driving force and guarantee for the optimization of national economic structure.The mechanism of optimizing the structure of national economy is divided into two aspects:relations of production and productive forces.In terms of relations of production,the market mechanism should play a major role,and the reform of the economic system and the guidance of government policies should play an important regulatory role to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development.In terms of productivity,the optimization of national economic structure should be realized through scientific and technological progress and innovation. |
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