Research On The Formation Mechanism And Dynamic Simulation Of Cross Border E-commerce Supply Chain Resilience

Under the background of a number of national policies,such as the Belt and Road Initiative,the Domestic and international Double Cycle and RCEP,Cross border e-commerce has provided new impetus for the growth of China's foreign trade.Ensuring the safe operation of cross border e-commerce supply chain is an urgent need for China's cross border e-commerce enterprises and even the whole industry.However,most cross border e-commerce enterprises are faced with the development trends of global procurement,multiple transshipment links,high transportation costs and refined inventory management,and need to deal with more economic and cultural fluctuations,terrorism,natural disasters,international trade frictions and outbreaks of disease and other complex uncertain and disturbing environments.These interferences make cross border e-commerce supply chain more vulnerable,increase the risk of supply chain performance decline or supply chain interruption,and enhance the demand for cross border e-commerce supply chain resilience.When the cross border e-commerce supply chain is disrupted,it should be able to quickly recover to the ideal state,fully absorb or avoid the interruption,or recover more quickly after the interruption.Supply Chain Resilience(SCR)is the ability of supply chain to quickly recover to the ideal state,which can effectively reduce the risk of supply chain disruption.Therefore,it is extremely necessary and necessary to conduct research on Cross Border E-Commerce Supply Chain Resilience(CBSCR).In-depth exploration of CBSCR formation mechanism and dynamic change rules is conducive to cross border e-commerce enterprises to formulate intervention strategies and control the potential risks of safe operation of cross border e-commerce supply chain.However,there are few studies on the formation mechanism of CBSCR,and even fewer studies on CBSCR in China.Based on above,in order to study the formation mechanism and dynamic change law of CBSCR,based on the definition of CBSCR connotation,this study uses Complex Network Theory to study interference sources from the outside of CBSCR,and uses integrated Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-SEM method to study influence factors from the inside of CBSCR.Finally,the System Dynamics method is used to study the comprehensive mechanism of CBSCR from internal and external factors.Specifically,the main work of this study is reflected in four aspects.(1)A conceptual model of CBSCR formation mechanism is constructed to clarify the connotation of CBSCR from the perspectives of external interference events,internal influencing factors and interaction between internal and external factors.Firstly,the concepts and disputes of cross border e-commerce supply chain and supply chain resilience are sorted out and defined.Then,the connotation of CBSCR is revealed from three aspects of external interference events,internal influencing factors and interaction between internal and external factors,and the formation mechanism of CBSCR conceptual model(multidimensional structure conceptual model)is constructed.It is found that CBSCR external interference sources include external environment of supply chain,internal operation of supply chain and internal operation of node(core enterprise).CBSCR capability includes efficiency capability,adaptability capability and evolution capability,none of which is indispensable.Interference events are the external interference factors of CBSCR,and the internal influencing factors are the embodiment of the internal ability of CBSCR.CBSCR excitation process is the result of interaction between interference events and influencing factors.(2)The external interference event system of CBSCR is constructed,and the mechanism of CBSCR interference events is analyzed by using Complex Network Theory.Firstly,the CBSCR external interference event system was constructed based on the conceptual model of formation mechanism,and the CBSCR external interference event network was constructed using complex network theory.Then the static structure of the interference event network is revealed through the basic characteristics of network nodes,network node centralization and network centralization indexes.On this basis,four interference deletion strategies,random deletion,deliberate deletion,initial policy deletion and remeasurement deletion,are proposed,and their deletion effects are analyzed by dynamic simulation.The results show that CBSCR external interference event network has the characteristics of small-world and scale-free,that is,there are key interference nodes in the network,and the interference transmission and cascade effect are very significant.The effect of deliberate deletion strategy is obviously better than random deletion.Focusing on the three key interference nodes of international trade friction,cross border goods delivery delay and low cross border logistics timeliness can greatly reduce the network efficiency of interference events and promote the good operation of cross border e-commerce supply chain.(3)The internal influencing factors system of CBSCR is constructed,and the mechanism of influencing factors of CBSCR is analyzed by integrated Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-SEM method.Firstly,the internal influencing factors system of CBSCR was constructed based on the conceptual model of formation mechanism.Then,the mechanism model of influencing factors was constructed by Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM method.Finally,the mechanism model of influencing factors was verified by SEM method.The results show that supply chain agility,collaboration between partners and risk management culture are the key factors of CBSCR.Emergency planning,business continuity planning,social memory and trust between partners have the most direct impact on CBSCR.Multi-supplier international procurement,the redundancy of international transportation and storage capacity and the reserve of safe cross border e-commerce stock have the most profound impact on CBSCR.Functional redundancy and supply chain flexibility have great influence on social memory.Risk management culture has a great impact on business continuity planning and supply chain collaboration through supply chain trust.(4)The CBSCR system dynamics model is constructed,and the interaction mechanism of interference events and influencing factors on CBSCR is analyzed by using the system dynamics method,so as to reveal the action mechanism of CBSCR.Firstly,the interaction mechanism model of internal and external factors in CBSCR was constructed from the aspects of system boundary determination,system causality diagram and system flow diagram by using system dynamics method.Then,the parameters of the CBSCR interaction mechanism model are set by using the conclusions of the mechanism of external interference and internal influencing factors and the enterprise survey data.Finally,the interaction mechanism model of internal and external factors of CBSCR is simulated through simulation analysis of basic system behavior and sensitivity analysis of different strategies.The results show that:in the period of rapid growth of CBSCR,cross border logistics investment and international trade friction supervision have obvious effects,which should be increased investment;In the period of slow growth and stable maintenance of CBSCR,the effect of supervision on international trade friction is obvious,while the effect of cross border logistics input is weak,which focuses on the long-term accumulation of supervision on international trade friction.In addition to get some meaningful conclusions,this study may have the following innovation:(1)The interaction mechanism of external interference events of CBSCR is comprehensively analyzed from three aspects: external environmental interference of supply chain,internal operation interference of supply chain and internal operation interference of node by using complex network theory,which extends the research perspective of this field;(2)The integrated Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-SEM method is used to comprehensively analyze the interaction mechanism of influencing factors in CBSCR from three aspects of supply chain efficiency,supply chain adaptation and supply chain evolution,which extends the research perspective in this field;(3)The interaction mechanism of internal and external factors of CBSCR is comprehensively analyzed from four dimensions of supply chain efficiency,supply chain adaptation,supply chain evolution and interference source by using system dynamics method,which provides an overall understanding of the dynamic trend change of CBSCR and better reveals the mechanism of CBSCR.Through the above analysis,this study helps cross border e-commerce enterprises to have a more systematic and comprehensive understanding of SCR,pay more attention to the strategic role of SCR in the face of international turbulence,and more actively explore the practice of SCR,especially the prevention of interference events and the implementation of measures to enhance resilience.Cross border electricity in particular,to help policymakers more active cross border electricity industry to guide policy,intensify supervision of international trade friction and cross border electricity logistics infrastructure investment,promoting cross border electricity supply chain structure flexibility and trust between supply chain partners,promote cross border electricity CBSCR regulation measures such as the ability of interference sources.This will help policy makers of cross border e-commerce to formulate SCR policies in a more targeted way.