| Food is the material basis for the continuation and stable development of people's basic livelihoods.The current gradual increase in ecological and environmental risks and the continued growth of the international population have created unprecedented challenges to the development of the global food supply and demand system.In this international situation,China's population continues to increase and the structure of Chinese people's demand for food is also changing,which puts higher requirements on the level of China's food supply,and the national food supply system is under great pressure.China needs to actively respond to the impact of different forms of resourcebased,financial and energy-based development of food at home and abroad,and also to overcome the current shortage of agricultural resource elements and continuous population growth.China needs to improve its comprehensive grain production capacity in many ways.Facing the constraints of multiple factors on the development of the national grain supply system,scientific international trade in grain and rational allocation of international and domestic "dual markets" and "dual resources" are important means to effectively guarantee the long-term,stable and high-speed development of the national grain supply system.It is also an important way to ensure national food security.This paper uses social network analysis to study the evolution of China's grain international trade pattern and its influencing factors,which can help China take timely and effective measures to cope with the risk of fluctuations in the international and domestic grain international trade markets,and has important theoretical guidance and practical value for optimizing China's grain supply system,alleviating the contradiction between China's grain supply and demand,and achieving China's food security goals.The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of China's grain trade pattern and its influencing factors,focusing on the following questions: How to effectively construct a specific grain international trade network in response to the reality of grain international trade around the world and be able to reasonably describe the specific nature of the network structure? What is the basic structure of the food international trade network and its development pattern? What is the position of China in the international food trade network and its development trend? What is the distribution of associations in the food international trade network,and what are the patterns of roles of association members?What factors have an important impact on China's international trade in food and how do they work? How to propose countermeasures to effectively promote the competitiveness of China's grain international trade and ensure food security? Based on the above questions,this paper uses the social network analysis method to study the pattern of China's food international trade and its influencing factors,taking the food international trade network composed of countries involved in food international trade as the research object.Firstly,we systematically sort out the various literatures related to the study of this paper to clarify the focus and breakthrough of the study,and at the same time,we define the relevant content scope of this paper,and propose the basic theories such as international trade theory,national competitive advantage theory,social network theory and value chain theory that are suitable for the study of this paper.Secondly,under the guidance of relevant theories and based on historical logic,the production characteristics,consumption characteristics and international trade characteristics of world food are analyzed respectively,and the production,consumption and international trade of Chinese food are also specifically analyzed to clarify the international food production,consumption and trade.Again,under the condition of clarifying the inevitability and rationality of the formation of international trade network of grain,the modeling of international trade network of grain is carried out,and specific social network analysis indexes including network density,network reciprocity,network centrality,clustering coefficient,network association,etc.are determined to clarify the formation mechanism and action path of each index to lay a good theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Again,we empirically analyze the evolution pattern of China's grain international trade pattern,the distribution of associations and their influencing factors.Specifically,using Ucinet 6.0 social network analysis software and visual graphing tools such as Net Draw,the specific indicators identified above are used for specific analysis and comparison,and at the same time,according to the reality,characteristics and development pattern of China's grain international trade network pattern,the core network of China's participation in grain international trade is identified,and QAP correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis are used to clarify the influence on the evolution of China's grain QAP correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis are used to identify the important factors that will have an impact on the evolution of China's international trade network.Finally,we summarize the research contents of the above chapters,form the conclusions of this paper,and propose countermeasures to improve the competitiveness of China's international trade in grain and ensure food security.Based on the above ideas and research contents,a number of important conclusions are drawn:(1)international trade in food is strongly interrelated,and the food international trade network has become an inseparable organism.The international trade in food between countries has a certain hierarchy,and the base of network density and reciprocity index is low,showing a small upward trend.The tightness of the international trade network in food in which China participates is low,and it does not give full play to the benefit-sharing effect,and there is great room for improvement in optimizing the efficiency of food resource allocation.(2)From the analysis of centrality,different countries play different roles in the food international trade network,some countries have strong influence,some countries have weak influence,while some countries have the role of "bridge",and the countries involved in food trade are heterogeneous.The central potential of the food export network shows an N-shaped development trend,while the central potential of the food import network shows an inverted U-shaped trend,and the food international trade relationship among China's neighboring countries is relatively loose compared with the whole network.(3)The distribution of national associations of food international trade shows certain geographical characteristics,but at the same time breaks through the geographical restrictions,China and some countries in Asia and South America have basically formed a relatively stable food international trade associations,and the associations have influence on each other,but the intensity of influence is small,and the countries that have formed associations with China are more stable,and the food international trade between member countries is frequent or has great potential for food international trade.The countries that have formed associations with China are more stable,and the international trade of grain between member countries is frequent or has great potential.(4)Using QAP correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis to determine its key influencing factors,the overall regression results are relatively robust,and the explanatory power of the model shows a trend of gradual improvement.Differences in agricultural resource endowments,differences in economic development levels,geographic and cultural differences,and differences in policies and systems are the main factors affecting the international trade network of food,and differences in population size and trade structure play an insignificant role in the international trade network of food. |
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