Research On The Impact Of Environmental Regulations On The Gains From Virtual Water Trade

In the new era,as the process of product production and service is decentralized globally,and is subdivided into closely related production processes,the final product and intermediate product production and service activities between the upstream and downstream countries(regions)of the industrial chain Together they form a new global value chain division of labor system.The intra-product division of labor has changed the way of international division of labor,and has also caused academic circles to gradually pay attention to the problem of transnational flow of production factors behind the commodity trade."Virtual water" refers to the total amount of water resources that must be invested behind production and services.At present,the total amount of bilateral trade between countries(regions)in the world is increasing.Water resource constraints have gradually become a major environmental problem that plagues people’s economic activities.The cross-border flow of water resources that are necessary for the production of tradable goods and services,namely virtual water,has gradually caused The attention of the academic circles.The birth of the virtual water trade theory provides a new perspective for the academic circles to study the relationship between trade and water resources environment,so it has attracted much attention since it was proposed.Virtual water trade theory believes that countries with scarce water resources should import virtual water,while at the same time countries with abundant water resources should be encouraged to export virtual water,thereby optimizing the efficiency of water resources allocation on a global scale.At the same time,countries around the world have adopted stricter environmental regulations at home,which has imposed a certain degree of restriction on bilateral trade,and the virtual water trade behind the cross-border flow of goods and services will also be affected.Based on this,studying the trade gains of virtual water trade under the environmental regulations of various countries in the new era has become an inevitable choice for countries to develop foreign trade.Based on the perspective of value-added trade accounting,this article starts with the connotation of trade gains under environmental regulations,and puts forward the main question studied in this article-how environmental regulations affect the virtual water trade gains of countries(regions)around the world;Based on the analysis,the mechanism of environmental regulation affecting the virtual water trade gains of countries(regions)around the world is explained,and the scale effect,structural effect and technical effect of environmental regulation are studied separately;again,this paper is based on the calculation method of input-output analysis,Obtained the basic framework for the measurement and calculation of bilateral virtual water trade gains of various countries,and at the same time,verified the conclusions of theoretical analysis based on the global virtual water trade panel data,and described the status and characteristics of the bilateral virtual water trade gains of various countries over the years;Finally,in order to obtain the comprehensive impact of environmental regulations on the benefits of virtual water trade in various countries(regions),an econometric regression test was carried out to verify the scale effect,virtual water trade structure effect and virtual water trade technical effect of the environmental regulation.;Finally,based on the previous research conclusions,this study puts forward countermeasures and future research prospects on how to scientifically formulate policies related to environmental regulation to optimize the benefits of virtual water trade.The main research conclusions of the full text are as follows:First,there is a high degree of regional and industry heterogeneity in virtual water trade gains in countries(regions)around the world.From the perspective of import demand,China,Indonesia,Japan,Russia,and the United States have the largest total virtual water import trade scale,while the virtual water import scale of countries such as Cyprus,Luxembourg,Malta,and Slovenia is relatively small;from the perspective of export supply Look,among all the observations,the average annual total virtual water export trade scale of Brazil,Canada,China,Indonesia,and the United States has reached more than one trillion tons.Countries with smaller export supplies are mainly Cyprus,Greece,and the Netherlands.One possible reason for the above phenomenon is that the input-output structure of countries(regions)is different,and there are also natural differences in the factor endowments of water resources.From the demand side time,the global virtual water import trade structure has been continuously optimized;from the supply side perspective,the global virtual water export trade structure has been continuously deteriorating.The technical effects of total virtual water trade vary among countries(regions)around the world.Among all countries and regions,Bulgaria,Latvia,Estonia and other countries have higher average annual total virtual water trade competitiveness index,and these countries have high comparative advantages in virtual water trade.This article also finds that many countries have comparative disadvantages in virtual water trade.For example,China’s average virtual water trade competitiveness index from 2000 to 2014 was-0.57,so China’s virtual water trade over the years has a relatively low comparative disadvantage.In addition,the competitiveness of virtual water trade in countries such as Japan,South Korea,and the United Kingdom is also relatively low.Second,the time trends of global virtual water trade gains are also different.The scale of virtual water import and export trade in countries(regions)around the world has basically shown an upward trend.In general,the scale of imports and exports of green virtual water is much higher than the scale of imports and exports of blue virtual water and gray virtual water.In terms of time trends,the optimization of the global virtual water import trade structure and the deterioration of the virtual water export trade structure continue to slow down.The analysis of the virtual water country(region)structure shows that although some countries with high water consumption have high water consumption,there is still a net outflow of virtual water.Regardless of whether it is virtual water import trade or virtual water export trade,the nuclear density map of the virtual water trade structure index of countries(regions)around the world from 2000 to 2014 changed from a sharp peak shape to a broad peak shape,which means that the global virtual water import and export trade structure index The increasingly scattered distribution in different countries(regions)also indicates that the global virtual water import trade structure is optimized and the speed of the deterioration of the virtual water export trade structure has been slowing down.Austria,Latvia,the United States and other countries have relatively stable dynamic changes in virtual water trade technology content.In recent years,the virtual water trade competitiveness index of countries such as Denmark,Malta and Estonia has increased year by year.In contrast,Brazil,Russia,Turkey and other countries The virtual water trade competitiveness index of China has been slowly decreasing year by year.Third,there is a "U-shaped" curve relationship between environmental regulations and the demand for virtual water import trade.That is,when the intensity of environmental regulations is low,the substitution effect brought by the increase in the actual level of environmental regulations is smaller than the scale effect.At this time,virtual water imports Trade demand will be reduced;when the intensity of environmental regulation gradually increases and crosses the inflection point of the "U-shaped" curve,the substitution effect brought by the increase in the actual level of environmental regulation will exceed its scale effect.At this time,the virtual water import trade demand Will gradually improve.According to the intensity of environmental regulation,43 countries and regions are divided into three categories:high environmental regulation group,moderate environmental regulation group,and low environmental regulation group.It is concluded that countries and regions with low environmental regulation will be "U-shaped" later.The conclusion of the inflection point of the curve.Environmental regulations have a significant negative inhibitory effect on the supply of virtual water exports.According to the intensity of environmental regulations,43 countries and regions are divided into three categories:high environmental regulations,moderate environmental regulations,and low environmental regulations.The impact of environmental regulations The direction of the virtual water export trade supply remains unchanged.The higher the water resource element endowment and trade openness of the exporting country and region,the higher the virtual water export trade supply of that country and region;the greater the technological progress gap between importing and exporting countries and regions,the greater the The higher the virtual water export trade supply;the higher the export relative price index,the lower the virtual water export supply of exporting countries and regions.Fourth,environmental regulations have direct and indirect effects on the structure of the virtual water trade industry.The econometric regression results show that environmental regulations have a U-shaped curve relationship with the structure of the virtual water trade industry.In the early stage of the implementation of environmental regulatory measures,the higher the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP,that is,the lower the intensity of environmental regulations,the more optimized the virtual water import trade structure,and the higher the intensity of environmental regulations,the higher the virtual water import The trade structure is getting worse and worse;as time goes by and the level of environmental regulation is further strengthened,environmental regulation has a significant positive effect on the virtual water import trade structure.Environmental regulations have an inverted U-shaped curve relationship with various virtual water export trade structures.In the early stage of the implementation of environmental regulatory measures,the lower the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross national product,that is,the higher the intensity of environmental regulations,the higher the virtual water export trade structure index,and the virtual water export trade structure worsens over time;With the development of environmental regulations and the further strengthening of environmental regulations,environmental regulations have a significant negative inhibitory effect on the virtual water export trade structure.Environmental regulations are not conducive to the upgrading of the country(regional)structure of virtual water trade on a global scale.Environmental regulations have a higher coefficient of virtual water imports for countries(regions)with high water consumption,and a lower coefficient of action for countries(regions)with low water consumption.Environmental regulations have a significant U-shaped curve relationship to the virtual water net import trade flow.In the total virtual water trade and the blue virtual water trade,low water consumption countries ushered in an earlier turning point,while in the gray virtual water trade,high Water consumption countries ushered in a turning point earlier.The endowment of water resources and economic scale have basically significantly promoted the optimization and upgrading of the virtual water trade country(region)structure,and the relative import value has promoted the upgrading of the bilateral virtual water trade structure.However,when the exchange rate increases,it is not conducive to the bilateral virtual water trade.Optimization and upgrading of country(region)structure.Fifth,environmental regulations have a positive impact on the technical effects of virtual water trade.Due to the inefficient use of water resources,the endowment of water resources has inhibited the technical effects of green virtual water trade;in addition,exchange rate appreciation and technological gaps have promoted the technical effects of virtual water trade,while trade policies have significantly inhibited virtual water trade.Technical effect.Under the premise of controlling endogeneity,this chapter finds that for countries(regions)with high water consumption,environmental regulations promote the technical effects of virtual water trade,which is in line with the previous research conclusions.Among them,for every 1%increase in the intensity of environmental regulations,the blue virtual water trade competitiveness index increases by 0.0616%units at the 10%confidence level.The effect of environmental regulations on the technical effects of gray virtual water trade is more significant:An increase of 1%,the gray virtual water trade competitiveness index increased by 0.0694%each unit at the 1%confidence level.For low water consumption countries(regions),environmental regulations still have a significant inhibitory effect on the technical effects of virtual water trade,and compared with the overall analysis,the coefficient of negative impact of environmental regulations on the technical effects of virtual water trade has increased significantly.Compared with the existing research,the possible innovations of this article are as follows:First,in the context of the declining division of labor in the global industrial chain,a more comprehensive analysis of the mechanism of the impact of environmental regulations on the gains of virtual water trade,pointing out that environmental regulations through scale effects The three aspects of technological effect and technological effect act on the gains of virtual water trade,and the mechanism analysis breaks through the traditional analysis framework;secondly,it empirically tests the effects of environmental regulations on the international trade gains of virtual water,and examines the effects of environmental regulations on virtual water import and export.The role of total trade volume,virtual water trade scale,and virtual water trade competitiveness index not only studies the trade gain effects of virtual water trade from the "quantity",but also conducts in-depth discussions on the above issues from the "qualitative" point of view.Studies have been supplemented;finally,this article comprehensively interprets the virtual water trade gains of countries(regions)around the world based on the three dimensions of scale effect,structural effect,and technological effect,and enriches relevant research in the field of virtual water trade,and based on China’s national conditions put forward systematic countermeasures and suggestions.