The Driving Force And Water Saving Of Virtual Water Trade Changes In China

China is a country with a shortage of water resources.The per capita share of water resources is less than 2200 cubic meters,only 1/4 of the world’s per capita share.The concept of virtual water provided a new way for water scarcity countries and regions to solve the problem of water scarcity by importing high water consumption products and exporting low water consumption products.Virtual water refers to the quantity of water resources needed in the production of goods or services.The virtual scarce water is obtained by multiplying the virtual water and the regional water stress index,which can reflect and compare the difference in the impact of the same amount of water resources consumed between regions with different water resources endowment on the local water stress.With the economic globalization,China has surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest trading country and the world’s second largest economy.A large number of virtual water imports and exports had also been generated.The study pointed out that China’s virtual water net export in 1995 turned to virtual water net import in 2015.While the import and export of virtual water in China’s foreign trade changes over time,two key issues will arise:first,what factors drive the change of China’s virtual water trade,and second,how the change will affect the global and China’s water resources.In order to clarify the above two issues,this study carried out the following research on the two forms of virtual water,namely,the traditional quantitative virtual water and the virtual scarce water obtained by multiplying the water stress index:(1)Based on the multiregional input-output(MRIO)model,identify the change trend of China’s virtual water and virtual scarce water trade from the global perspective of 1997-2022,and clarify China’s contribution to the global virtual water trade;(2)Combined with the structure decomposition analysis(SDA)method,the driving factors of China’s virtual water and virtual scarce water import and export changes are clarified respectively;(3)Assess the impact of China’s virtual water trade changes on global and China’s water saving and global water stress mitigation,and provide suggestions for China and the world to save water resources through trade.The results showing:(1)China’s trade exports increased by more than 9 times from 1997 to 2022,while the virtual water exports only increased by 1.5 times,realizing the decoupling of China’s virtual water export from its increased export volumes.From 1997 to 2010,China’s virtual water net export region was transformed into a virtual water net import region in 2011,2013-2015 and 2017,and then into a virtual water net export region in 2018,but China had always been net export of virtual scarce water.(2)The improvement of water use efficiency and the structure changes were two major contributors to the decoupling of China’s virtual water export from its increased export volumes.From 2012 to 2015,the adjustment of trade structure drove the substantial increase of virtual scarce water imports in China’s "wholesale,retail and catering industries","agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery","food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry" and "chemical industry".(3)Since 2007,China’s virtual water trade with the world has increasingly helped the global water conservation and water pressure relief.China’s virtual water imports from Japan,South Korea,Brazil,Canada and other regions in the Americas have achieved more than 70%of China’s water saving.China should continue to improve water efficiency and adjust the trade structure,choose to import water-intensive products from countries/regions with more water resources and higher water efficiency,and make important contributions to the mitigation of water stress in China and the world.