Research On Risk Evolution Of Safe Operation Of Long-distance Water Diversion Project

Long-distance water diversion projects have played a major role in alleviating the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of water resources,reducing the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources,and promoting the social and economic development of water receiving areas.It makes the safe operation of the project more important.Due to the characteristics of long-distance water diversion projects such as long distances,complex geological conditions,and changing climates,the risk factors affecting the safe operation of the project are complex and changeable,and risk management and control are very difficult.Through literature analysis,it is found that the current research on the safe operation risk of long-distance water diversion projects focuses on risk classification analysis and risk comprehensive evaluation,and there are few studies on risk evolution.In order to deeply explore the law of risk changes and provide theoretical support for the formulation of risk dynamic management and control strategies,this dissertation studies the safe operation risks of long-distance water diversion projects from the perspective of risk evolution.The main research contents are as follows.(1)Analysis and identification of system risk factors for safe operation of long-distance water diversion projects.The definition of the long-distance water transfer project is given,and the system composition and engineering characteristics of the long-distance water transfer project are analyzed.According to the target requirements of the safe operation of the long-distance water transfer project,the definition of the safe operation risk of the long-distance water transfer project is given.According to the characteristics of long-distance water transfer projects,through literature analysis,data reading and field investigation,the structural decomposition method is used to identify the risk factors for the safe operation of long-distance water transfer projects,which lays the foundation for the follow-up risk evolution research.(2)Risk measurement model for safe operation of long-distance water diversion projects.Established a two-dimensional risk measurement model of risk occurrence probability and risk consequence loss: introduced DS evidence theory into Bayesian network,established a measurement model of risk occurrence probability,classified and analyzed risk loss,combined with equivalent method to establish risk consequence estimation,the model also gives the grade division of risk measurement.(3)Dynamic transmission and evolution model of long-distance water diversion project safety operation risk.On the basis of risk measurement,the risk transfer parameters are determined,and the dynamic Bayesian network is used to construct the dynamic transfer evolution model of long-distance water diversion project safety operation risk,and the process analysis of risk dynamic transfer evolution is given.Taking the first phase project of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example,the dynamic transmission and evolution law of risk is analyzed.(4)Risk correlation analysis model for safe operation of long-distance water diversion projects.This dissertation analyzes the mechanism of long-distance water diversion project safety operation risk association;aiming at the lack of subjective knowledge in the current risk association analysis,comprehensively considering subjective and objective data,using the interpretive structure model and Copula function to construct the long-distance water diversion project safety Run the risk correlation analysis model,put forward the method of integrating risk correlation to a higher level and the construction method of risk network.Taking the first phase of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example,the relationship between risks is analyzed,and a risk-related network structure model is constructed.(5)On the basis of risk dynamic transfer and risk correlation transfer,a coupling evolution model of long-distance water diversion project safety operation risk is established.Based on the analysis of the risk network structure based on the complex network theory,the risk coupling evolution parameters and key evolution nodes are determined,combined with the risk emergence theory and risk propagation dynamics,a dynamic model of the risk coupling evolution is established,and the factors affecting the risk coupling evolution are analyzed,Based on the coupling theory,the risk coupling evolution result analysis model is established,and the state of the risk coupling evolution is determined.Taking the first phase of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example,the coupling evolution of risk is analyzed,and the coupling evolution results are compared with the risk dynamic transfer evolution results without considering the risk correlation to verify the rationality of the coupling evolution model.In this dissertation,a risk measurement model for safe operation of long distance water transfer project,a risk hierarchy transfer evolution model for safe operation of long distance water transfer project,a risk correlation analysis model for safe operation of long distance water transfer project and a coupling evolution model for safe operation risk of long distance water transfer project are constructed.The research results provide help for in-depth understanding of the changing rules of safe operation risk of long distance water transfer project.It provides theoretical support for the formulation of risk control countermeasures,and can also provide reference for other similar risk research.At the same time,it supplements and expands the risk management theory.