| By the end of 2021,China’s rural electrification work has covered all residents,the power grid upgrade and transformation are proceeding in an orderly manner,and distributed energy projects are gradually being promoted in remote areas;the natural gas pipeline network,supporting infrastructure and services are increasingly improved;The goal of replacing coal with electricity has been completed;the promotion of biomass energy technology has enabled the use of biogas and clean biomass fuels to form a certain scale in rural areas;the scale of agricultural production mechanization has been expanded,and energy productivity has been greatly improved;under the rural revitalization strategy,the green energy system in rural area is gradually shaping.At present,the construction of rural green energy system needs to be promoted in coordination with the work of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.It is the focus of the next stage of rural energy construction work to formulate scientific,effective and realistic carbon reduction plans based on the basic conditions of rural areas.That is to say,“withdrawal of inferior energy sources such as bulk coal” and “promotion of clean energy such as electricity” from a micro perspective and “clarification of the path for rural energy ladder improvement” from a macro perspective.In terms of policy formulation,it is necessary to solve the problems encountered in the construction of rural energy systems,such as “establishing the development direction of rural clean energy technology”,“establishing the principle of clean energy subsidies and controlling economic costs”,and “reasonably dividing the treatment areas of lowquality energy such as bulk coal”,and “formulating governance strategy according to local conditions”.and “establishing a national energy market mechanism to promote rural energy upgrade”.However,at present,the government’s lack of systematic planning in the development of clean energy production and consumption technology has led to the unreasonable development of rural renewable energy and biomass energy.The unreasonable division of governance areas for coal and other low-quality energy and the “one-size-fits-all” governance policy have resulted in poor heating conditions for northern residents in winter.In addition,in the context of the simultaneous advancement of urbanization and industrialization in China,the rural energy ladder promotion work lacks a strategic plan for coordinated development with other energy sectors and an accurate policy focus.In order to solve these problems,this thesis firstly uses the energy ladder theory,Environmental Kuznets Curve theory and IPAT framework to combine the latest research on rural energy transformation and upgrading from economic and social perspectives to build a theoretical framework for rural energy ladder upgrading,and to explore the relationship among factors.The causal relationship of each study is summarized,and the gaps and deficiencies of each study are summarized.On this basis,the specific problems and main methods to be solved in this thesis are clarified.Next,on the basis of clarifying the impact of the time effect brought by production and living habits and the spatial effect brought by the flow of factors between regions on energy consumption,the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural energy consumption are analyzed using the method of chart interpretation and data description.Then,after describing the characteristics of energy ladder in agricultural production and rural life,the dynamic spatial panel model is used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the rural energy ladder and the influence mechanism of the main influencing factors,which makes up for the lack of investigation of the spatiotemporal effect in the previous energy ladder research.Fourth,after clarifying the main problems encourtered by bulk coal governance and analyzing the mechanism of bulk coal withdrawal,an empirical model for bulk coal withdrawal analysis is constructed based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,and a spatial analysis of optimal by means of multi-model comparison and regression is used to analyzes the exit mechanism of low-quality energy such as bulk coal;guarantees a comprehensive bulk coal exit strategy from three aspects:practical meaning,theoritical construction and analysis method.Fifth,on the basis of analyzing the current consumption characteristics and main influencing factors of clean energy such as electricity,the dynamic panel threshold model is used to investigate the impact of production,lifestyle and affluence on clean energy consumption,and the grouping regression method is used to investigate the impact of clean energy consumption.The spatial characteristics of the impact,combined with the economic development level of each region,put forward development strategies according to local conditions.Finally,combined with the current macro environment in which urbanization and agricultural development are advancing simultaneously in rural areas,using the method of structural equation model mediation effect analysis to analyze the role of urbanization and agricultural development on rural energy consumption,and form the stages of upgrade path of the rural energy ladder.The main findings of each part are as follows: In the research on the rural energy ladder effect and its temporal and spatial characteristics,it is found that there is an interprovincial competition effect in the consumption of clean energy in agriculture production,and an inter-provincial demonstration effect in the consumption of oil products in rural life;heavy dependence on coal limits rural energy consumption The level of cleanliness increases with the improvement of affluence and the promotion of urbanization;energy consumption habits promote the use of various energy sources;the consumption of various energy sources other than gas in production and life promotes each other.In the research of rural bulk coal withdrawal,it is found that there is an inverted U-shaped income effect in rural civilian bulk coal consumption,and agricultural bulk coal consumption increases with agricultural development;the structural effect of urbanization will reduce bulk coal consumption;rich coal resource endowment increases bulk coal consumption in production and life;economic development linkage,population mobility,and inter-provincial resource market competition have brought about the inter-provincial demonstration effect of civilian bulk coal consumption,while the agglomeration and linked development of agricultural industries and urbanization under the inter-provincial mobility of population Both will reduce the consumption of agricultural scattered coal,and the consumption habit of scattered coal will increase the consumption of scattered coal.In the research on the promotion of clean energy such as electricity,it is found that simply expanding the scale of agricultural production or increasing the income of residents has limited effect on promoting clean energy;in the eastern,central and western regions,the transformation of style in rural production and life has become the main driving force for clean energy.The scale of agricultural production in the central region has the same effect on the promotion of clean energy as production and lifestyle,while the rural economic development in the western region is the main driving force for the promotion of rural clean energy.The research on the path of rural energy ladder upgrade found that rural energy construction should focus on promoting agricultural development rather than promoting urbanization;the reduction of rural population brought about by urbanization should improve the cleanliness of agricultural production energy through the intermediary effect of production mechanization.The increase in farmers’ income brought about by agricultural development is the main reason for the improvement of the cleanliness of domestic energy consumption.Finally,the following policy implications can be given: The enlightenment in using the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rural energy ladder to promote energy upgrading is that the development focus of energy consumption and supply technology should be established according to resource endowment and economic development level,and the development focus of energy consumption and supply technology should be established according to the level of regional agricultural development and the level of residents’ income.Establish the subsidy principle for clean energy use projects,promote energy upgrading work in concert with the modernization of urbanization,the style of production and life,and pay attention to the mutual drive between production and life energy upgrades.While guiding energy use habits,pay attention to inter-provincial cooperation,resource mobilization and advantages complementary.In the governance of low-quality energy such as bulk coal,the principle of “interprovincial driving and regional coordination” should be adhered to and coordinated with the urbanization work to reduce the difficulty of governance.Attention should be paid to the use of the national coal market adjustment coal production capacity to promote the “resource competition” to reduce the consumption of bulk coal.Other means are used to guide residents’ energy use habits in agriculture production and rural life to speed up the governance process.In the promotion of clean energy such as electricity,we should focus on changing styles of agriculture production and rural life under the “Rural Revitalization” strategy to achieve economic cost control in clean energy promotion,establishment of promotion scale,and selection of promotion paths.In the rural energy ladder upgrade path,agricultural development should be the focus of work,and the promotion of agricultural mechanization and the improvement of farmers’ income should be the focus of policy. |
PDF Full Text Request