The Influence Mechanism And System Simulation Of Human Capitalinvestment On Forestry Economic Growth In State-owned Forest Areas

Since the implementation of the natural forest protection project and the commercial nologging policy of natural forests,the function of the forestry industry in the state-owned forest area has changed from timber and ecological benefits to ecological construction.The economic growth of state-owned forest area is slow.For the sake of social stability and ecological environment construction of state-owned forest area,it is necessary to promote the "maximum increment" of forestry economic development through the "core variable" of scientific and technological innovation.Human beings are the main body of scientific and technological innovation,technological progress and innovation based on human-centric play increasingly important roles in the development of forestry economy in state-owned forest areas.If the prerequisite for the development of forestry economy in state-owned forest areas is physical capital,then human capital will ultimately determine the effectiveness of forestry economic development.Exploring the impact of human capital on forestry economic growth in stateowned forest areas can open up new growth paths for forestry economic growth in state-owned forest areas.Under the background of natural forest commercial logging ban and state-owned forest area facing economic crisis and resource crisis,this study takes human capital input as the starting point to discuss the influence mechanism of human capital input in state-owned forest area on forestry economic growth,in order to optimize forestry human capital in stateowned forest area and promote forestry economic growth.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper is systematically reviewed the domestic and foreign research literature and the theoretical basis of the research.This study takes the influence mechanism of human capital input on forestry economic growth as the main line,and defines the concepts of human capital and economic growth through the review of relevant literature on the relationship between human capital and economic growth and the review of relevant theoretical basis,so as to provide theoretical support for subsequent normative analysis and empirical research.(2)This paper is qualitatively analyzed the present situation of forestry human capital and forestry economy development in state-owned forest area.Referring to domestic and foreign researches,this paper presents the related concepts of human capital,forestry human capital,economic growth and so on.On this basis,this paper first takes Yichun as an example to analyze the current situation of forestry human capital and forestry economic growth in the study area.The analysis of the number of employees in the forestry system,salary,educational background,and professional title structure in the study area shows that: from 2003 to 2020,the number of employees in the forestry system in the forestry area has been in a downward trend,and the employees in the forestry system have a low degree of education,and the structure of professional titles is unreasonable,and the wage level of on-the-job workers is far lower than the average wage level of on-the-job workers in the national forestry system.The analysis results of forestry industry output value,industrial structure,under-forest economy and investment in the study area show that although the total output value of forestry industry in the forest area is on an upward trend,the growth rate has slowed down.The ratio increased slightly,and the proportion of forestry tertiary production increased rapidly.The under-forest economy is developing well,the scale of forestry investment has slowed down,and the investment is mainly concentrated in forestry ecological construction and people’s livelihood security.The investment in forestry industry development needs to be improved.(3)Using econometrics methods such as regression analysis and intermediary effect,this paper is empirically examined the mechanism of human capital input factors on forestry economic growth.Firstly,from the perspective of human capital formation,it qualitatively analyzes the influence mechanism of each element of human capital investment on forestry economic growth,and constructs the mechanism framework of human capital affecting forestry economic growth.Use regression analysis,mediation effect and moderation effect model to empirically analyze the impact of human capital input factors on forestry economic growth from a macro perspective.Taking Yichun state-owned forest area as an example,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the effect of forestry human capital investment on forestry production efficiency and forestry industrial structure,and finally tests the contribution of factor input,production efficiency and industrial structure to forestry economic growth.The empirical results show that: 1)Forestry human capital investment has a significant role in promoting forestry production efficiency and forestry industry structure,and the professional title structure of forestry system employees(one of the indicators to measure human capital level)has a significant impact on forestry human capital investment and forestry production.There are significant mediating and moderating effects between efficiency and forestry industry structure;2)Forestry factor input(investment,labor force,total stock of living trees)and forestry production efficiency have a significant role in promoting forestry economic growth,and forestry industry structure(forestry The proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry)cannot effectively promote the growth of the forestry economy,that is,there is still a lot of room for adjustment of the forestry industry structure.(4)Using the method of system dynamics,this paper is simulated the influence trend and degree of human capital investment on forestry economic growth.First of all,this paper uses the causal circuit diagram in the Vensim modeling software to describe the complex relationship between government human capital input and household human capital input,explore the ways in which the internal elements of human capital play a role in forestry economic growth,and reveal the impact of forestry human capital elements on forestry.The influence law and endogenous mechanism of economic growth.Secondly,according to the characteristics and attributes of the elements in the causality diagram,the state variables,rate variables,auxiliary variables and constants in the system are determined,and the system flow diagram is constructed,and the relationship between each element is semi-quantitatively analyzed.Take Yichun as an example,use the data from 2003 to 2020 to write the mathematical equations of the relationship between variables in the system flow diagram,and quantitatively analyze the relationship between human capital and forestry economic growth.Finally,carry out policy simulation and simulation,and put forward policy recommendations based on the simulation results,and provide references for the formulation of human capital investment policies in forest areas.The simulation results show that: 1)The factors of government human capital input play a significant role in improving the level of human capital in forest areas and promoting the growth of forestry economy.Among them,the investment in education and business expenses has the greatest role in promoting the level of human capital in forest areas and the growth of forestry economy,followed by health care,and science and technology expenditures are the least;2)The factors of family human capital investment have a weak role in improving the level of human capital in forest areas and promoting the growth of forestry economy.Regarding the factors of government human capital investment,increasing family education investment has a greater effect on promoting the level of human capital in forest areas and the growth of forestry economy than family health investment.(5)This paper is put forward countermeasures and suggestions.this study mainly focuses on the government human capital investment(educational expenses investment,forestry enterprise talent introduction investment,forestry scientific research fund investment,talent security investment in state-owned forest areas)and family human capital investment(improving the willingness of family education investment in forest area workers)put forward countermeasures and suggestions in two aspects.Therefore,it provides theoretical reference and reference path for optimizing forestry human capital,improving forestry total factor productivity,promoting forestry industry upgrading,and realizing high-quality sustainable development of forestry.To sum up,this study mainly uses research methods such as mediating effect,moderating utility and system dynamics to explore the effect path of human capital input factors on forestry economic growth and forecast the influence trend and degree of human capital input factors on forestry economic growth by taking the data of state-owned forest area of Yichun from 2003 to 2020 as an example.