| Space deterrence is bred in nuclear deterrence.During the Cold War,space assets became an important part of the nuclear deterrence strategy due to functions such as intelligence collection,reconnaissance,surveillance,communication,command,and missile warning.In the 1991 Gulf War,the United States used space assets on a large scale for the first time in actual combat.Space assets greatly enhanced the combat effectiveness of conventional forces by playing the role of "energizer","multiplier" and "tandem device".It is possible to separate space deterrence from nuclear deterrence.In 1999,the Clinton Administration promulgated the "Space Policy" for the first time to systematically elaborate the concept of space deterrence,which marked the formal independence of space deterrence from nuclear deterrence.At this time,the space deterrence is backed by the ability of space assets.Through threatening or actually using the limited consequences of the limited use of space assets,the adversary will be warned in advance,and the adversary will be afraid of the pros and cons,and will be forced to obey the deterrence.They will to give up the original attempt.At this time,space deterrence is based on space assets with direct or indirect offensive capabilities.This article also refers to this type of space deterrence as "offensive space deterrence".However,there are obvious vulnerabilities in space assets,and they have little defense against physical and non-physical attacks.At the same time,the United States is heavily dependent on space assets.Under this situation,the United States has proposed space deterrence for the purpose of protecting the safety of space assets.On the one hand,it reduces opponents’ gains by attacking on U.S.space assets through defensive measures,and on the other hand,it imposes a heavy price on its opponents by implementing punitive measures.As a result,the opponents will give up malicious interference and attacks on US space assets because of the loss.This article also refers to this type of space deterrence as "defensive space deterrence".Since space deterrence has become an independent deterrence pattern,it has become the core content of each US government’s space military strategy.The choice of space deterrence pattern directly affects the direction of the national space military strategy.This article believes that national security strategy preferences and the degree of threat to space assets are the core variables that drive the evolution of the US national space military strategy.Firstly,when the current government adopts a strategy of restraining national security,regardless of whether the security threat to US space assets is high or low,they will adopt a defensive space deterrence strategy for protecting the safety of space assets.Secondly,When the current government adopts a tough national security strategy,and at the same time,its space assets are subject to a high degree of security threats,they will adopt an offensive space deterrence strategy to deter potential opponents by enhancing the offensive capabilities of space assets;Thirdly,when the current government adopts a tough national security strategy,and at the same time,the security threat to its assets is not high,this provides exploration room for United States to expand the military potential of the "High Frontier",then they will take an offensive space deterrence strategy,developping space military capabilities,and consolidating their space hegemony.In the case test section,this article examines the changes in the US space military strategies after the end of the Cold War.Since the realization of space deterrence independence during the Clinton administration,the US space military strategy has experienced the offensive space deterrence strategy during the Bush Administration and the defensive space deterrence strategy during Obama Administration,and the Trump administration returns to the offensive space deterrence,which demonstrates the applicability of this article ’s interpretation framework. |
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