| Since the reform and opening up,our country’s economy has developed rapidly,to some extent,it benefits from the advantages of the age structure of our population.With the decline of our country’s fertility rate and the deepening of aging,the quantitative demographic dividend is gradually disappearing.It is estimated that by2028,the dependency ratio of population in our country will exceed 50%,while the demographic dividend opportunity window will be closed.Relevant studies show that the promotion of economic growth by education can completely offset the negative effects of the aging population structure,and the qualitative demographic dividend urgently needs to be opened.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,a new wave of scientific and technological revolution and knowledge-based economy has emerged around the world,which is profoundly changing the social and economic life of human beings and the pattern of world competition.Human capital has become an important factor affecting the level of national development and international competitiveness.Although our country’s education has made great achievements,it has realized the comprehensive popularization of basic education and the popularization of higher education,but there is still a huge difference compared with developed countries,so it is imperative to realize the modernization of education.In February 2019,the "China Education Modernization 2035" is issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council,clearly stated that education modernization will be achieved in 2035,in order to solve the problems of insufficient investment in educational resources and prominent structural contradictions in our country for a long time.It is urgent to break the previous thinking of studying the allocation of educational resources based on practical issues,and explore the construction of a new path for the allocation of educational resources with the goal of education modernization.This research takes the realization of education modernization goals as the starting point,and benchmarks the actual problems of educational resources through the strategic goals of educational development.After sorting out the current situation about our country and abroad,clarifying related concepts,this research explains the theoretical basis of educational resource allocation,and constructs an analytical framework for educational resource allocation under the goal of education modernization;based on the census data,analyzes and evaluates the evolution rule of education modernization and population-in-school pattern in the our country,each region,and at all levels of education,and finds out ideas for promoting the structural progress of population-in-school pattern and realizing of education modernization;analyzes the policy changes and promotion process of the allocation of educational resources in our country,and makes reasonable judgments on the actual dilemma of educational resource allocation;summarizes the trend of educational resource allocation at different stages of education modernization development and the experience of educational resource allocation in the OECD,reveals the optimization paths that can be used for reference;based on the population forecast data,the goal of education modernization and the high-quality population-in-school pattern,discusses the demand and development trend of our country’s educational resources in the next15 years;finally,according to the theoretical and empirical research on the influence mechanism of educational resource allocation,puts forward the promotion path of educational resource allocation in our country.It broadens the research ideas and provides a new research perspective and practical reference for promoting the realization of education modernization by optimizing the allocation of educational resources.This research mainly has the following five conclusions:First,the educational resource allocation should center on the high-quality population-in-school pattern and be guided by the goal of education modernization.In the next fifteen years,the development goal of our country’s education is to realize education modernization,and the allocation of educational resources should serve this goal.In previous studies,educational resource allocation research framework was‘the educational demand was determined based on the size and distribution of the school-age population,and thus determine the supply of educational resources’,but this framework does not fit with the educational development goals.Under the background that high-quality development has become a feature of the times,this article establishes a research framework for the allocation of educational resources to achieve the goal of education modernization by introducing a high-quality population-in-school pattern: Establish education modernization goals and high-quality population-in-school pattern,and establish the development of expected years of schooling based on high-quality school model;according to the development requirements of expected years of schooling based on the high-quality population-in-school pattern,determine the population-in-school rate by education level,and combine age-specific population forecast data to derive the scale of school students at all levels and types;determine the demand for educational resources based on the scale of students in various types of education at all levels,thereby determining the supply of educational resources,and use the supply of educational resources to guide the realization of the expected years of schooling increasing based on the high-quality population-in-school pattern,realize the goal of education modernization.An analysis framework for the allocation of educational resources to serve the goals of future educational development is ‘goals of education modernization(expected years of schooling)—high-quality population-in-school pattern—school students of all levels and types—educational resource demand—educational resource supply’.Second,high-quality population-in-school pattern should meet the population’s educational needs at school,ensure that everyone has sufficient time for school education.High-quality development is the basic requirement and essential feature of our country’s economic and social development in the new era.High-quality education should enable everyone to obtain the greatest degree of training,maximize their potential,and obtain the cultural literacy and professional skills they want,evaporate its greatest value for social construction.The population-in-school pattern under the goal of education modernization should have high-quality characteristics,including the following five characteristics: Everyone can get the opportunity to receive formal education in school,get the education level they want.Everyone can receive formal education in school for a sufficient length of time,the overall national quality reaches a higher level,and generally have a longer expected years of schooling.All groups and strata of society have equal opportunities to receive education in school,regardless of their gender,ethnic group,household registration,family background,religious belief,and so on.Geographically,achieve a regional balance based on the high level of school education,and minimize the difference of population-in-school pattern and level in each region.High-quality population-in-school efficiency,the school-age population of the corresponding education stage can enter the corresponding education level to receive education in time,the school-age population has the largest population-in-school rate,and the over-age population has the smallest population-in-school rate.Third,undergraduate enrollment,postgraduate enrollment,and high school and above education opportunities for the floating population in the eastern region have become important bottlenecks restricting the increase in expected years of schooling in our country.On the whole,the expected years of schooling in our country is accelerating,and the main mode of population-in-school has shifted from primary education to primary and secondary education;the gap with developed countries has narrowed,but there is still one education level gap;the rate of female population-in-school is increasing faster than that of male,and the gender gap has narrowed and reversed;the turning point of the population-in-school rate has risen from 11 and 15 to 18 and 22,and the main constraint node for the increase in expected years of schooling has risen from enrollment in primary and secondary schools to enrollment in higher education and postgraduate.In terms of education level,our country’s compulsory education population-in-school rate has reached a relatively high level,has achieved a high level of gender equality and equal access to education opportunities for social groups,and a high level of regional balance in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions;the unequal access to education is mainly reflected in the stage of high school and higher education;in various social groups,it is mainly reflected between population registered in this province and population no registered in this province,between the floating population and the non-floating population;in terms of geographical space,it is mainly reflected in the eastern region.Fourth,the pressure of educational resources allocation and supply mainly will come from the stage of higher education.Our country’s nine-year compulsory education has been fully implemented,and the popularization of high school education has achieved positive results,basic education has reached a high level in schools.Realizing the modernization of education in the next fifteen years,shifting to high-quality development of population-in-school pattern,will mainly due to the substantial increase in the scale of higher education enrollment.Although affected by the "universal two-child" policy and population inertia,the students of basic education will be fluctuated slightly,and the supply of educational resources such as teachers and funds will appear a certain gap.However,affected by the large increase in the scale of higher education,the supply of educational resources such as teachers and funds at the higher education stage is seriously insufficient.Fifth,national strategic is the direct driving force for the allocation of educational resources,and the government governance model and social economic development are conditional constraints that cannot be ignored.In the strategic top-level design of the party and the country,education has always been a priority for development,and it has been clearly written into the party’s plenary report and government work report.The continuous expansion of national financial education investment and the construction of high-level teachers directly reflect the country’s commitment to this strategy.In addition to the central government’s decision on major policies and macro planning,the responsibilities and powers in the formulation and implementation of specific education policies,systems,and plans mainly lie with the local government.The fiscal revenue capacity,expenditure responsibilities,and administrative preferences of local governments directly restrict the degree of educational resource allocation.The economic environment and population on which education depends for survival and development are also conditions that cannot be ignored in the allocation of educational resources. |
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